2011 Opening Game Favorite

Here we go!  Looking forward to a good year for MLB in 2011.

Some people like this system, some people hate it.  I had days on each side during the season last year.  The jist is that the oddsmakers know more than we do.  Our hope is to use this knowledge against them and turn a profit using an aggressive labouchere money management.  If you hate laying juice or using labby management, this is not for you.  Won +175U last year going 231-10

Here is the plan:

Play on teams that open at -145 or higher in the first game of a three or more game homestand.

Chase for 3 games only

Run this on an aggressive 3 line labouchere (will post lines)

If you wish to minimize/optimize plays, play on home teams only that have a over/under set for game 1 of the series at or higher than 9 (89-2 last year)

Overally goal is to hit at 60-70% at every level of play to clear lines and make profit.

I recommend starting to try to win 0.5 to 1% of your bankroll per series

Here is last years thread:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100726693&page=47

Everyone is always interested in filters and a few were looked at last year.  The best are:

Just play on home teams

Play only on series that pass the over/under filter of 9 or more

Avoid series that do not have a 60% winning ratio and/or home record above 50%. By winning ratio I add home team wins + away losses as a fraction vs. away teams wins + home team losses.

I would not start using the latter until a month into the season or so

If the labby lines get too large, just split the numbers.  It will take you longer to get the money back but you will be exposing less of your bankroll.

I like to try to play G1's at -1 or RL if the odds are higher than -175 to decrease bet amounts.  This will give you more losses/pushes on the season.

There will potentially be large swings in bankroll throughout the season.  The hope is to end up with positive units and have more protection for our bankrolls.  There were people last year that jumped on just in time for losing streaks and cost them money which I hate.

There was a loss very early in the season last year with baltimore so be careful.

Plays for 3/31:

System record 0-0-0                        +0U with labby

Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 0-0

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

Series#1 (G1) 1:05             det @ NYY -145  8 

Series#2 (G1) 4:15             sd @ STL -190    7

-both games to win 1U, considering -1 line (-135) for STL  

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins =

Game 2 wins =

Game 3 wins =

*Losses = 

+0 U aggressive labby updated 3/30 PM

Labby Lines

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

Good to see you back and I can echo what you said(sort of) - there will be swings and you need the gonads and backroll to ride out the storms. Jumping on the bandwagon when it's going really good, may or may not be the best time.

Having said that, based on your 3 labby lines of 5 5 5 5; is a $1500 bankroll sufficient in your mind.

Yea, I think that should be fine.  Good luck

Plays for 3/31:

System record 1-0-0                        -0.9U with labby

Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 1-0

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

Series#1 (G1) 1:05             det @ NYY -145  8   

Series#2 (G1) 4:15             sd @ STL -190    7

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 1

Game 2 wins =

Game 3 wins =

*Losses = 

+0 U aggressive labby updated 3/30 PM

Labby Lines

x-5-14-x        +10, -19

5-5-5-14

5-5-5-5

Plays for 3/31:

System record 1-0-0                        -0.9U with labby

Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 1-0

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

Series#2 (G2) x:xx             sd @ STL - pend sat.

Series#3 (G1) 1:05             hou @ PHI -250, RL     7

Series#4 (G1) 2:20             pit @ CHC -172           ?

Series#5 (G1) 4:10             az @ COL -190, RL ?     8.5

Series#6 (G1) 7:10             nym @ FLA -169          7

Series#7 (G1) 7:10            bal @ TB -187              8.5

-going to be hard to lay money on the cubs considering their performance in the system last year.  Don't have RL odds at my book yet but will likely play most of these at -1 with PHI on RL

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 1

Game 2 wins =

Game 3 wins =

*Losses = 

-0.9 U aggressive labby updated 3/31 PM

Labby Lines

x-5-14-x       

5-5-5-14

5-5-5-5

Plays for 4/1:

System record 1-0-0                        -0.9U with labby

Filter plays 0-0 (0-0 home teams)                                       

All Series 1-0

2 game series: 0-0   (G1=, G2=)

Series       Game   Time       Teams        o/u      TR diff           

Series#2 (G2) x:xx             sd @ STL - pend sat.

Series#3 (G1) 1:05             hou @ PHI -250, RL     7

Series#4 (G1) 2:20             pit @ CHC -172           ?

Series#5 (G1) 4:10             az @ COL -190, RL ?     8.5

Series#6 (G1) 7:10             nym @ FLA -169          7

Series#7 (G1) 7:10            bal @ TB -187              8.5

-going to be hard to lay money on the cubs considering their performance in the system last year.  Don't have RL odds at my book yet but will likely play most of these at -1 with PHI on RL

-all plays to win 1.9U

2 GameSeries

Interleague Series   (0-0)    (G1=, G2=, G3=)        

**meet o/u filter of 9+

TR diffs(for reference only)

Series Prices (for future reference only)

Game 1 wins = 1

Game 2 wins =

Game 3 wins =

*Losses = 

-0.9 U aggressive labby updated 3/31 PM

Labby Lines

x-5-14-x       

5-5-5-14

5-5-5-5

this is the part that is confusing to me.

Are you playing all the early games(3) to win $19?

I don't believe anyone has -1 RL (not that I have ever seen). I think you are supposed to use this formula to calculate -1 RL

Here is a formula for getting a -1 Run Line:

Say the Money line is -190

Take 100/190 = 0.53

Take the 0.53 and add 1  = 1.53

Then take the 1.53 and divide it again..   100/1.53 = 65.39

Now 65.39 is what you are going to risk on the ML... whatever the payout of that, you take that and risk it on the RL and thats how you get the -1 RL

Example:

St. Louis -220 ML

100/220 = .4545

100/1.45 = 68.96

Risk $68.96 on the -220 ML to win $31.35

Risk $31.35 on the +103 -1.5 RL to win $32.29

Lucky streak, did you ever back test your version for previous years. And are you playing it this year?

Hello all,

First of all, I want to thank Rizz for all the hard work and for sharing this great system, is by far in my opinion the best contributor to this forum.

I made a little mods to the original Favorite Chase Due that I saw a little flaws and that playing this system requires a lot of action and without the proper money management and enough bankroll can get out of control  and it could be devastating for some of us...specially if at the moment of jumping in, we reach an streak of losses.

What I try to do is find a way to avoid some loses, skip some plays and make it more profitable.

This may allow some of us to increase the units per play an avoid more chases.

I back tested only for 2009 but should have overall results as the original version.

So this is only a 2 game chase that works just like Rizz but starts right on the second game, but only applies for Home Teams, and teams with a .500 record or more.

Another rule that I found important is to avoid a game when the Fav. is -300 or more  (i don't think there's any value playing this high lines), instead you can try the under that is 4-0 so far.

BTW: I'm straight martingaling the plays, this could be risky but due to the high winning percentage on game 3 plays of the series, I guess is worth the risk, but anyone can try labby or whatever..

The numbers for 2009 will be so far:

Game 2 of Series Chase: 32 - 14 (69.52%)

Game 3 of Series (Chase #2) 11- 1 (91.66%)

46-1 (97.87%) When Chasing Until game 3 of a Series. and combining with the under on game 3 of the series when Fav was -300 or more)

Actually the Loss could've been avoided because the line closed way above the -300 but it opened at -270. (I'm talking about the HOU @ STL series loss).

43-4  (91.48%) (Add 3 more losses that did not involve a chase. (Loss on game 2) -5.2 Units

To all those who try to avoid the high juice playing all the lines that involve a Fav -200 or more  on the RL adds 1 loss.

One more time I'm not trying to take any credits out of this, as all this work is thanks to Rizz, is just a little variation for all those who rather to skip some action.

Any comments or questions please let me know