WORLD CUP TODAY PLAYS (6/29)

TOURNAMENT:   96-61-4 (BIG PLAY: 34-19-4)

Ho-hum day (loss and push added to record) on Sunday.  I LOVED South Africa +1 and smashed that only to see the line ridiculously move up even as I was drafting the post.  So it got to a point where I had to post myself that it's probably too expensive.  Luckily (I hope at least) I was able to weigh in on others asking about taking it at +.5 only, to which I heavily consulted them not to.  The fact that both teams didn't score wasn't a big deal b/c I had so much more on South Africa.  And then to lose in extra time (at least on a stunning strike) was actually pretty painful.  I could have used that cash as we enter into a really great day of World Cup knockout matches.

Just to reiterate, from this point onwards we have a "to advance" and a "match line".  These are important as the "to advance" takes in extra time and draws now move to extra time then penalties if the game is still tied.  As such, I will be playing both of those, and today will have an immediate example.  Any questions, pose them, I'm sure if I can't answer one of our fellow moneymakers can weigh in :).

Having said that, there are three games that I really like today, with many angles to cash.  The first of which kicks off in a couple of hours and pits World Cup giants Brazil against a really strong Japanese squad.  I have futures on both of these teams, with Brazil as one of my plays to win the tournament so you probably know how I feel about the end result here.  I am going to post a parlay below with a Brazil "to advance" so be careful when you post it.

Brazil have not been eliminated at the first knockout hurdle of a World Cup since 1990.  I am fully expecting that trend to continue.  Conversely, The Samurai Blue have never won a knockout match at the finals (L4), and a return of just one victory in five games in this competition against CONMEBOL sides historically (D1, L3). 

But Japan is very capable of pulling the upset, having drawn with the Netherlands 2-2 in their group match, showing their scoring prowess.  BUT, the Brazilian defense is much stronger and more tidy than that of the Netherlands.  They have given up just ONE goal in the group stage, and that came to a powerful Morocco team that will be on display later today.  They are much taller and stronger than the Japanese and, on the wings, their defenders can match the pace of the Japanese.  

I'm not sure if both teams score, but I am pretty comfortable that Brazil will do so.  I would wait for line-ups but in this case they will come out with a strong squad and few changes, something Ancelotti is known to do.  I am going to start the day with a play I have been waiting for...

Classic case of Covers limiting the length of the posting.  Maybe will just stop doing write-ups b/c they tend to get long when I do so and I try to shorten but then omit information that I think is valuable to consider...Anyways, carrying on, here are the plays I'm backing...

BRAZIL TT FG OVER 1.5 (-109)...BIG PLAY!!!:  If the Japanese can give up 2 goals to the Netherlands and a goal to Sweden, my money is on them giving up at least one to Brazil.  There is way too much value and I'll be the fool for jumping on this if it doesn't get over the hump.  If Japan gets on the scoresheet, then this cashes.  And even if they don't, I've got a lot of confidence this will.  I could easily see a 2-0 Brazil victory but I don't see them scoring less than 2 goals, let's hope in regulation.  If you are a bit nervy, then taking this WITH extra time is only priced at -155 now, which might seem high, but it won't when you have cash in your hands.

BRAZIL TO ADVANCE (-285) + YES BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (GERMANY/PARAGUAY) -105 = +163...BIG PLAY!!!:  This is a PARLAY and yep, two big plays out the gate. Clearly you know what I will be on for the Germany game.  I'll do a separate writeup for this game but six of Germany’s last seven matches saw both teams score and if Ecuador can net two, I think Paraguay will get at least one. Brazil are HEAVILY favored to advance in this matchup, but are offered at a much lower price to win the game in regulation.  So you can certainly take that, it won't pay much more at +239 but will come with a much more added risk, at least how I see it.

I will be back shortly with more write-up or plays.  I am very pumped about the slate today and it's always great to get the day off on the right foot, which I intend to do.  There is quite a bit more pressure in these rounds, but that's when the very best teams show up.  If you don't, you will not be around to fight another round.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Good luck 

so you are saying that Japs won’t score at all? 

@LAGameofInches

BOL 

LET'S GO!!!!

I am saying there is a strong chance they won't.  Look at the analytics then compare to the spreads set by the oddsmakers.  They are only -175 (I know that sounds expensive) to score INCLUDING extra time.  And that's to score ONE goal.  

What I am saying is that Brazil will score two, in regulation.  That's why I feel the spread is so high between teams that could play one way or another.  I'm not certain which Japanese team comes out but Brazil has the speed down the wings, even missing Raphinha, to cause some havoc for the Japanese.  Their goalie Suzuki has been great but he's also only had to face Tunisia and what seemed to be an out of sorts Swedish team.  I'd actually love to see Japan score I just am not sure they will given the Brazilian defense.

@LAGameofInches

 Thanks for the write-ups - much appreciated,

@LAGameofInches

Laser focused this week and let's grab some more bags from the bad guys!!

LET'S GO!!!

By the way, I think I speak for many, would not want the writeups to go away. Always interested in reading those. 

Is there a way you can have a certain amount of characters per post and break it into sections? I don't know what the character limit is. But would hate to see your writeups go away. They are extremely valuable, whether we play it or not. Thanks. 

Either I'm getting played or I'm playing!!!  

The OVER 1.5 TT BRAZIL is now down to -102!!!  BUT...ironically the TT for "including extra time" is still at -155!

I think the insurance would be a draw b/c it seems as though they expect Brazil to win in extra time.  I just do not see another 1-0 game here given the teams on the field.  This is NOT South Africa and Canada.

Thinking of being stubborn and SLAMMING the -155 odds for Brazil Over 1.5 tt including extra time.

Ugh, hope my brain is working right here...Brazil have only NOT scored more than once 3 out of their past 10 games, with those games being played against all WC teams (France, Morocco, and Tunisia...though in Tunisia game they didn't have top lineup playing).  Take that for what it's worth you don't have to follow this I'm just spewing my thought process.

That's what I have been doing.  Maybe less banter on my end and just posting plays but I want to embrace the age old adage "if it's not broke, don't fix it"!

TRUST THE PROCESS!!! (stay the course my friend) 

What are the chances of Germany game going o2.5?

In big tourney such as this,, betting individual games, I rarely look at lines after I place my bet and before game start. Unless O am looking to chase late steam. But if that's the case I wouldn't have made the first bet. 

I agree with you views and think Brazil advances on penalties

I think Germany trounces in regulation

BOL LA 

BOL, LFG

Where are you getting including extra time line?

@Mikewavy

 Fd

@Mikewavy

 Dk also

Madness.  Japan has gotten so much money on them that Brazil is an incredibly short -120 to win the game in regulation.  I mean I get the prowess of the Smaurais and that they will have a big fan base but Japan and Brazil are very intertwined as a people.  There is a HUGE influence from both countries into one another and I think that too will create an ease within the game where neither team is fearful.  I mean the Japanese are the kamikazes so they certainly aren't built on fear.

Just not sure how personally speaking I don't at least lay some cash on this short Brazil line.  If they get past Japan, they won't have a line like this until they play the other heavyweights.  I also dont' want to lay too much on this game alone since it seems the oddsmakers are pricing in a very low scoring game with a muted first half.  

Have you guys even seen what you can get on Brazil for just a FH play (+150!!!)...any of their guys can score so I think that's a huge bait I'm thirsting to eat!