Posted:
#176
Excellent thread van. I was thinking of taking Both teams to score in the SA/MEX match at 2-1 odds. Any thoughts?
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World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....
Posted:
#178
Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:
Great thread, I dont bet much soccer could you or anyone else explain to me why I have some totals that read 2, 2.5 with only 1 price?
Great thread, I dont bet much soccer could you or anyone else explain to me why I have some totals that read 2, 2.5 with only 1 price?
1/2 your bet is being risked on the o/u 2 goals, and the other half is being risked on the o/u 2.5 goals.
if you bet over 2, 2.5 at -140
1/2 unit on over 2 at -140
1/2 unit on over 2.5 at -140
Is the game ends 1-1, you push you over 2 total, and lose your 1/2 unit on the over 2.5 total, or you lose .70 units.
It is a way to reduce the juice if you wanted to take the under in this situation (at ~ +100 odds for example for under 2), or pay more juice if you didnt want to place your entire bet on the over 2.5 (which may be around -110)
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Posted:
#179
Quote Originally Posted by bakemcbride:
Thanks, I appreicate it.1/2 your bet is being risked on the o/u 2 goals, and the other half is being risked on the o/u 2.5 goals.
if you bet over 2, 2.5 at -140
1/2 unit on over 2 at -140
1/2 unit on over 2.5 at -140
Is the game ends 1-1, you push you over 2 total, and lose your 1/2 unit on the over 2.5 total, or you lose .70 units.
It is a way to reduce the juice if you wanted to take the under in this situation (at ~ +100 odds for example for under 2), or pay more juice if you didnt want to place your entire bet on the over 2.5 (which may be around -110)
Don’t tell me the law. Tell me the judge.
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Posted:
#180
Hey forum, I got a few plays I'm deliberating and I can't play em all b/c of funds. Here's what I'm considering for the first games of the group stage and since you guys seem to have a better grasp of the teams as a whole, tell me what you think of em:
OVER 2.5 England v. USA
OVER 2.5 Chile v. Honduras
OVER 2.5 Brazil v. North Korea (heavily juiced; see below for how I think I can exploit Brazil)
South Korea +180 v. Greece (even tho a tie is highly likely)
Ivory Coast +270 v. Portugal (value play)
Fantasy Soccer Matchups (how I think I can exploit Brazil)
Brazil +110 v. Portugal
Brazil +130 v. Argentina
England +240 v. Ivory Coast
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Posted:
#183
Hey Van, maybe this is a dumb question( i know you like answering those anyways) but why did matchbook release the handicap lines?
Isn't Uraguay +.5 the exact same thing as France to win(no)?
I am going to tail you for a bit as i enjoy the world cup but do not know much about soccer. Good luck
Isn't Uraguay +.5 the exact same thing as France to win(no)?
I am going to tail you for a bit as i enjoy the world cup but do not know much about soccer. Good luck
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Posted:
#184
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
If I'm not mistaken I don't think it is possible for the teams to get the points in that order...The time is upon us again – the best month of every four years is here. This will be the first WC I have missed in person since Italy 1990, because of safety concerns in South Africa – but will be handicapping it all the way through.
This preview and power ratings are designed as a snapshot PRE TOURNAMENT. Things happen quickly – injuries, playing form, suspensions etc – so please read this only as wagers and rankings that are being made as of today pre-tournament. I will go group by group and give my opinions on each country, my predictions of the whole brackets down to the final, and my current power rankings which I will update as we move through the tournament.
As for the groups….
Group A: As a whole, group A is one of the weakest groups in the tournament. France is considered the favorite – but comes limping in after winning a dubious playoff against Ireland with the Henry handball incident. Injuries to Gallas and Diarra don’t help the cause. With France underperforming, and using some aging veterans to anchor the team – Im not betting on Anelka, Ribbery, and Henry being able to carry this team very far. They benefit from a weak group here. Uruguay comes out of a playoff win to make the WC finals finishing 5th in the tough South American qualification region. Diego Forlan is clearly the veteran leader of this team – and I have them edging out Mexico and South Africa to advance. Mexico get plenty of chances on net – but have trouble converting them – and have recently been exposed at the back giving up bad goals multiple times. South Africa benefit from being the home squad – something that has been very beneficial in previous WC’s, but this team is weak. Very weak. Even with the home advantage – they will struggle.
Handicapping analysis and bets: I will be betting Uruguay to advance at +110 for 2 units, and Uruguay to win the group at +400 (.5 units). The group win bet has more to do with the schedule than anything else – France might have already qualified by the last game against South Africa – and SA might already be out hoping to give the home fans a show. Uruguay has the best shot to sneak up there and steal the group – and at 4-1 I will take that chance.
Predicted Group A Finish (country, points):
1. France 6
2. Uruguay 5
3. Mexico 4
4. South Africa 0
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Posted:
#185
Quote Originally Posted by Fat_Chick:
Hey Van, maybe this is a dumb question( i know you like answering those anyways) but why did matchbook release the handicap lines?
Isn't Uraguay +.5 the exact same thing as France to win(no)?
I am going to tail you for a bit as i enjoy the world cup but do not know much about soccer. Good luck
I would think if it goes to to extra time then the +.5 play would be winner even if France won, but I dont know much about betting soccer.Hey Van, maybe this is a dumb question( i know you like answering those anyways) but why did matchbook release the handicap lines?
Isn't Uraguay +.5 the exact same thing as France to win(no)?
I am going to tail you for a bit as i enjoy the world cup but do not know much about soccer. Good luck
Don’t tell me the law. Tell me the judge.
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Posted:
#186
Quote Originally Posted by Fat_Chick:
Hey Van, maybe this is a dumb question( i know you like answering those anyways) but why did matchbook release the handicap lines?
Isn't Uraguay +.5 the exact same thing as France to win(no)?
I am going to tail you for a bit as i enjoy the world cup but do not know much about soccer. Good luck
Hey Van, maybe this is a dumb question( i know you like answering those anyways) but why did matchbook release the handicap lines?
Isn't Uraguay +.5 the exact same thing as France to win(no)?
I am going to tail you for a bit as i enjoy the world cup but do not know much about soccer. Good luck
Not at all....
Uruguay +.5 means Uruguay NOT TO LOSE...so if the match is a draw at the end of 90+, you're a winner. if Uruguay wins, you're a winner.
If France wins, you're bet is a loser.
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Posted:
#191
Quote Originally Posted by redg:
Bake - he means France not to win. Check out Matchbook - you'll see what he means. Actually a very good question - the -0.5/+0.5 handicap is redundant on MB for any game where they also offer MLs.
GL vanzack & go USA!!
Bake - he means France not to win. Check out Matchbook - you'll see what he means. Actually a very good question - the -0.5/+0.5 handicap is redundant on MB for any game where they also offer MLs.
GL vanzack & go USA!!redg, sorry if I misunderstood the question. I havent checked Matchbook. Thanks for clarifying bro.
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Posted:
#193
Van I keep looking but I have yet to find a book which offers me treater all around value than Pinnacle... you mention Bookmaker and as a book with some pedigree (ie. Betcris roots) I have looked into it but see that their lines are usually of the 10c variety 
I remember asking Malinsky this question heading into football season one year and he flat out advised me to stick with Pinny for all of my football wagering and save some time and hassle lol...
Excellent lines, huge limits, solid reputation and stability and a decent variety of betting options... only drawback I see is in the area of parlaying (not my priority) and customer service (no calling).
Obviously it is not an easy choice for Americans (who are prohibited) but I just wonder if you know of a better all-around book??
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Posted:
#196
Quote Originally Posted by Fat_Chick:
Hey Van, maybe this is a dumb question( i know you like answering those anyways) but why did matchbook release the handicap lines?
Isn't Uraguay +.5 the exact same thing as France to win(no)?
I am going to tail you for a bit as i enjoy the world cup but do not know much about soccer. Good luck
Hey Van, maybe this is a dumb question( i know you like answering those anyways) but why did matchbook release the handicap lines?
Isn't Uraguay +.5 the exact same thing as France to win(no)?
I am going to tail you for a bit as i enjoy the world cup but do not know much about soccer. Good luck
It makes it easier to bet France NOT to win. Some people dont realize you can bet the draw and Uruguay and that would equal Uruguay +.5. Also, you would have to figure out the ratio to risk.
Also - you will have less juice betting it on a 2 way line rather than a 3 way line.... Just trust me on this one - or do the math yourself....
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#197
Quote Originally Posted by pederson16:
vanzack, great great thread
i haven't seen any of your plays besides what you posted in you initial posts breaking down the groups....any match plays yet?
On page 6 of this thread...
June 11 - Day 1
1. S.A. / Mexico over 2 -122 (1.5 units) - The atmosphere should be electric for this game, and I do think S.A. will come out in an attacking mode. The problem is - they dont have the talent to play an open game without giving up counterattacks - and they dont have the midfield to maintain possession to effectively execute. Mexico should see most of the ball - and be able to get a lot of chances on net. An early goal would be great here - because that will open it up even further - if there is a goal in the first half this one should go over easily. Final score prediction Mexico 2-1.
2. France / Uruguay - Uruguay +.5 -109 (if you only have a 3 way optoin, bet the draw + the win) (2 units) - This line has crept up in the past several days to around -125 or so - but I would still lay that. Uruguay would be happy with a draw here, and something tells me that France would be too. Everyone knows that France hasnt been playing well as a team, has yet to emerge with an onfield leader - so a team like Uruguay will be lucky to get them early in case they do turn it around. I see this one played close to the vest, with lots of midfield possession on both sides. Predicted score Uruguay 1 France 1.
Day 2 June 12
3. Greece / South Korea - under 2 -103 (2 units), 0-0 exact score +600 (.5 unit) - This is a perfect storm for an under: Two teams who lack offensive punch, play defense first, and both will be happy with a draw in this first round game - neither will feel a win is absolutely necessary. Greece always plays defensively - and South Korea should do the same. The longer this one stays scoreless, the more you will see these teams play for a draw. I do think Greece has a talent advantage here - and might just steal a goal - and if they do score - watch the greeks go in to lockdown mode - so my predicted final score Greece 1 South Korea 0
4. Argentina / Nigeria - Argentina to win -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - The only thing holding me back on this game is that Argentina might not be firing on all cylenders this early in the tourney - I wish this game was later in the group - but Nigeria will be exposed here talentwise and tactically. Just way too much talent on the Argentine side - and the undisciplined (although Swedish manager Lagerback could help) Nigerian side will have enough lapses in concentration to get beat. Final score prediction Argentina 2 Nigeria 0.
5. England / USA - Over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - Another perfect storm - this time for the over. England has lots of firepower, but lots of problems on defense - and the USA is almost a carbon copy - like a twin that is far less talented. We should see lots of quality opporutnities on net - and both sides have the talent at forward to finish them. The USA will most likely come out with 2 forwards (Altidore and probably Buddle) - and go out to attack. England will also attack - but probably only Rooney up front - but that will be enough with an offensive minded midfield to tear up a defense that is disorganized. Onyewu is the anchor here? A guy who hasnt played for 6 months, and was questionable to begin with? After this tournament - Milan will know why he is playing the last season of his contract for no money - its actually a bargain for Onyewu. England should win fairly comfortably, but Im not quite comfortable laying the -200 in this first round game with a team that can let up goals. Final score prediction - England 3 USA 1.
GL all
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#198
Quote Originally Posted by happycap:
Van I keep looking but I have yet to find a book which offers me treater all around value than Pinnacle... you mention Bookmaker and as a book with some pedigree (ie. Betcris roots) I have looked into it but see that their lines are usually of the 10c variety
I remember asking Malinsky this question heading into football season one year and he flat out advised me to stick with Pinny for all of my football wagering and save some time and hassle lol...
Excellent lines, huge limits, solid reputation and stability and a decent variety of betting options... only drawback I see is in the area of parlaying (not my priority) and customer service (no calling).
Obviously it is not an easy choice for Americans (who are prohibited) but I just wonder if you know of a better all-around book??
About 75% of my bets go in to Pinny.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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but I disagree with your leans to the South American teams with the exception of Brazil. The european team willl physically dominate the SA teams, have more fan support and win. I like Spain and the Netherlands and Brazil
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