World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

You can't be serious.

Pinochle.

I'm with vanzack all the way and after watching this match, I completely understand why he was on the over.  This match should've gone well over.    I can't believe you've never heard of a book that has totals at 2, I've seen hunderds of them over this past international season alone. I got it at 2 as did everyone else I know so it was a push.  I look forward to future picks from vanzack.

My book has Uruguay +.5 -140...is there a way I can bet this with reduced juice by betting both the Uruguay ML of +260 and the Draw at +220?

Dude -

It pushed.  It was 2 flat, I wouldnt have bet over 2.5.

Maybe your own thread would be good for you to track your own picks?  Thats what most people do.

By betting 100 on the Urgy ML at +260, and 112.50 on the draw at +220, you will give yourself a line of just at -142.

So no advantage.

A few notes on the S.A. / Mexico match.....

The disputed Mexico goal was the right call - it is just very unusual for a GK to be in that position - and to be honest it caught me offguard but after the replay I realized that he was offside.

Its one of those games that I feel lucky and unlucky at the same time - there could have easily been more goals - and Mexico should be kicking themselves for not putting themselves in a better postion to score more.

If you rewatch the Mexico goal, the SA defender Aaron Mokoena (#4) was the only one on the defense to NOT push up in to an offside trap - and played 3 Mexicans onside.  If you watch it again, notice before the cross comes in that everyone except him push up.   The reason I mention this is this is so indicative of African soccer unfortunately - to lose shape at the back like this - and to have several momentary lapses during a game that better teams will exploit.

It was a fair result, but one I think the Mexicans will be wondering how they didnt perform better.  But in the end they deserved it - all of that possession of the ball at midfield by the defense of Mexico - knocking it around back and forth - with no creativity or point guard to make plays....

And Blanco looked like shit - I dont know how that guy is on the field - a disgrace.

much appreciated Van...bol to you

In very simple terms - yes.

Its always described as "at least one defender", but that assumes the GK is on his line or close to it.  It is a pretty rare situation when  GK comes off his line, there is a defender on the line, and an offensive player between them.

To me, the issue on this play was really whether the ball came off a SA player before it went to the Mexican guy who scored.  In that case - it wouldnt have been offside.  But after rewinding it, I think it is safe to say it went off the head of a Mexican, not the GK (who missed the play altogether) or a SA defenseman.

Just make sure you do this competition in your own thread. 

Vanzack took alot of time making this thread for EVRYONE.  He asked you to do it your own thread so Im asking the same.  There is no need for this thread to be cluttered with that stuff.

BTW---  Great thread VANZACK....  Great soccer post... you've been on top of your game every year

5dimes
the Greek
BetJamaica
WSEX
....and every local I know...

Dont be a douche in someone else's thread.  Especially if you dont know what you are talking about.  i dont post nonsense in the boxing forum if i dont know the facts.

One note before I post day 3 picks....

I make specific bets, at specific odds.  If I post that I have a team +1 goal, that is exactly what I have.  If you choose to only take +.5 because of whatever reason, I cant control that - and is the main reason I dont post soccer plays throughout the year - too many people get confused about the multiple betting options - and I dont like dealing with all of the mess it creates.

Anyway - I better post Sundays games now - because I plan on being shitfaced by 10am tomorrow......

1.  SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) -  PUSH
2.  Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units)
3.  SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit)
4.  Nigeria -200 (2 units to win 1 unit)
5.  USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units)

SUNDAY:

6.   Slovenia / Algeria - no bet.  I see this as being a defensive game, and I think it is priced about right.  Slovenia should be a slight favorite, and the total should be low - so I dont see a betting opportunity on this one other than maybe a draw at +230.  I will go to school on this one for future games.  Predicted final score Algeria 1 Slovenia 1.

7.  Serbia / Ghana - Serbia to win +116 (2 units).  Serbia should be able to open up Ghana with constant pressure in the midfield, and expose a defensive lapse or two.  I dont see Ghana getting many chances on net without Essien as the quarterback - and the rock solid defense of Serbia will frustrate the Ghana offense all day.  I see this as being one of those 1-0 or 2-0 games you look back and think that Ghana never had a chance - Serbia gets the first goal and locks it up on D....  Predicted final score Serbia 1-0.

8.  Germany / Australia - Australia +1 +106 (1 unit).  Im not thrilled about this one, Australia is largely untested coming out of their new qualification group - but they are basically a very similar team that made a run 4 years ago - against a German squad that might lack punch.  Add that to this being the first game for both sides - and I will take a small shot here that Germany wont win by multiple goals.  Better chance of a draw here than multiple goal win IMO, but most likely result is....  Predicted final score Germany 2 Australia 1.

GL ALL AND GO USA!!!

Thx Beets.

I think you meant Argentina -200

Thanks again for all your effort.

I did.  Thanks.  It would be comical if I bet on Nigeria laying -200 after spending most of my pregame money betting on Argentina to win the tourney.

As part of this o/u 2, o/u 2.5 discussion, I see that on The Greek they have the France/Uruguay under 2 at +103 while the under 2.5 is -165.....so there's a 68-cent difference to take the under 2.5 instead of the under 2.

Does anyone know of a general rule of thumb of what's a fair price to pay for that extra half goal?  In football and basketball I use 7.5 cents per half point (less than 7.5 cents is good, more than 7.5 cents is bad).

A website has tomorrow's England/USA odds at:

England -1 (-105)  USA +1 (-108)

England -1.5 (+145)  USA +1.5 (-185)

There's a 50-cent difference between the -1 and -1.5 for England while there's a 77-cent difference in the two lines for the USA.  To me it looks like the better bet for both teams is to take the -1 instead of the -1.5.....I'd be curious to hear anyone's opinion on this and what a half-point in soccer is worth.    

Just getting caught up here - obviously a day or two behind.

After winnning good money following you 2 - or was it 4 - years ago, I'm pleased to see you are still sharing your soccer expertise.

Best of luck. Like many in this forum, you win means I win.

I know this is vanzack's thread, but let me just comment that the HOOK will get ya every time!  Dont get bit by the hook in what may be a 2-1 type of game.

lay -1 and be satisfied with a push and move on if need be...