World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

Current Record 15-8
Up 30.84 units, Down 12 units
TOTAL - Up +18.84 units

Previous games...

1.  SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) -  PUSH
2.  Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN
3.  SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit)
4.  Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN
5.  USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6.  SLV / ALG - no bet
7.  Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS
8.  Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS
9.  Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN
10.  Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS
11.  Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
12.  Slovakia -.5 -200 (risked 1 unit) - LOSS
13.  Ivory Coast / PTGL - no bet
14.  Bzl / NK - no bet
15.  Chile (2 units) - WIN
16.  Switz +1.5 (.5 unit) - WIN
17.  Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) - WIN
18.  Arg / SK over +108 (1 unit) - WIN
19.  Greece +.5 (2 units) - WIN
20.  France +138 (3 units) - LOSS
21.  Serbia +.5 +140 (1 unit) - WIN
22.  Slovenia +.5 -116 (1unit) - WIN
23.  Eng / Alg over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - LOSS
24.  Netherlands -200 (2 units) - WIN
25.  Australia +.5 -112 (3 units) - WIN
26.  Denmark PK -122 (3 units) - WIN
27.  Paraguay -.5 +112 (3 units) - WIN
28.  Italy/NZ - No Bet
29.  CIV +.5 +130 (.5 unit) - LOSS
30.  Portugal / NK - No bet
31.  Switz / Chile - No bet
32.  Spain / Honduras - No bet

Futures...

1.  Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units)
2.  Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit)
3.  Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units)
4.  Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units)
5.  England to win group C -320 (2 units)
6.  USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units)
7.  Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit)
8.  Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit)
9.  Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units)
10.  Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit)
11.  Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS
12.  Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units)
13.  NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) - SICK LOSS
14.  Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units)
15.  NK zero points -140 (2 units)
16.  Switz to advance +160 (1 unit)
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
19.  No african team to advance +1200 (1 unit)
20.  No african team qtr finals +165 (2 units)

Tuesday June 22

33.  South Africa / France - South Africa PK +135 (2 units) - If you are looking for something insightful on why I am taking SA, sorry, you wont get it here.  Im taking them for every obvious reason possible.  Its an easy equation for me:  the France situation + SA home game + SA at plus odds = an autobet.  How could anyone bet on France here?  Of course they can win, and of course they are more talented - and if you told me at the beginning of the tournament that I would be betting SA in this game I would have told you that you were crazy - but I cant NOT bet SA here.  Predicted final score SA 2 France 1.

34.  Mexico / Uruguay - No draw +130 (2 units) - Alright, so the obvious result here is a draw right?  So this exact situation has only happened once in the last 20 years of World Cups and Euro tournaments - it was 1996 Euro in group A - England and the Netherlands were on 4 points each and playing each other, and Scotland and Switz were on 1 point each and playing each other.  A draw would put England and the Netherlands through - but England won 4-1.  There are 3 other examples where 2 teams were on 4 points, one on 2 and one on 0 and the two top teams played each other.  In these cases -  2 times there was a draw - and 1 time no draw.  The most famous of these was at the 2004 Euro when fellow Scandinavians Denmark and Sweden played to a famous 2-2 draw that was later investigated. 

Add all of this to the fact that if there is a draw here - Mexico plays Argentina while Uruguay gets Korea, Nigeria, or Greece.  Do you really think Mexico doesnt know this and wont be trying to win?  Final score prediction - Uruguay 2 Mexico 1.

35.  Argentina / Greece - No Bet -  It is taking all of my will power not to bet Argentina -160 here.  Maradona has said that he will start Messi and Veron, and that they are playing to win and taking it like a normal game.  Greece played a horrendous, disgusting, and putrid 115 minutes of soccer before getting a Nigerian red card which turned it on a dime for them - but I cant forget what I saw.  I have no belief that they will be able to do anything, especially in a situaiton where they must win - and play a style that they are uncomfortable with and not very good at.  But I cant ignore that 160 is a lot to pay for a team that has little motivation, against a team that is playing for their lives.  My heart tells me this one ends up 3-0 for Argentina, but my head tells me not to bet it and my money remains in my pocket.  Final predicted score - Argentina 3 Greece 0.

36.  South Korea / Nigeria - South Korea PK -123 (2 units) - If Nigeria win, and Greece lose, Nigeria goes through.  Nigeria knows this - but of course the S Koreans do too.  Nigeria has injuries and a suspension - Taiwo might play but is hobbled and was substituted for in the last game - and Kaita is out serving a red card suspension.  I have been impressed by the Koreans play - even in the 4-1 loss to Argentina they always looked poised and playing well - up until the final two late goals.  They looked great against Greece - and I think this is the type of disciplined team that will not panic and will counterattack against a desperate Nigerian team.  Nigeria + desperation = lapses; and I wouldnt be surprised to see Korea take advantage of tons of space on the counterattack and turnovers in the midfield.  If Nigeria get an early goal, it will play to their strength and against Koreas - but the longer it is scoreless the better chance I see of Korea scoring (if that makes sense).  Predicted final score South Korea 1 Nigeria 0.

GL ALL!!

Some interesting stats.....

South American teams - 8 wins 0 losses 2 draws - 18 goals scored 4 against.

African teams - 1 win 7 losses 4 draws - 6 goals scored 15 against

Euro teams - 10 wins 8 losses 8 draws - 29 goals scored 20 against

Thanks again everyone for the nice words and compliments.

34.  Mexico / Uruguay - No draw +130 (2 units) -Final score prediction - Uruguay 2 Mexico 1.

36.  South Korea / Nigeria - South Korea PK -123 (2 units) - Predicted final score South Korea 1 Nigeria 0.

Quote Originally Posted by MaddenGuru:

hey vanzack if my book doesn't offer the "no draw" bet, how can I back into the bet with the following 3-way line:

Uruguay +350

Mexico +250

Draw -150

thanks in advance and bol you're on a roll 

Use the following ratio of plays:

100.00 on Uruguay +350 and 128.57 on Mexico +250...

Total risk 228.57 to win 221.43 (Not to Draw -103.22)

Van,

Wouldn't Mex +$300 and Urg+360 be a better value than the no draw wager? Just asking the math seems correct to me.

Thanks for the posts and the great write ups. BOL in all of your remaining positions.

I see what you are talking about. What is the math break down on that? If you have time.

Thanks

In your case:

Uruguay +360 (100 to win 360)

Mexico +300 (115 to win 345)

Uruguay wins 360-115 = 245.....Mexico wins 345-100 = 245....

Total risk 215 to win 245 (Not to Draw +114)

I am on Germany large and it will be larger by gametime.

I started buying at -170, and am giving a goal too.  Will probably end up being one of my biggest bets of the tournament.

Im very happy with my argentina bet - and not so impressed with that article.  Everyone knows that Argentinas offense is the strength of their team - and by comparison any defense isnt going to be as good - but I will take Heinze, Samuel, and DiMichelis over most defenses in the tournament.

Everyone has an opinion....

I guess we can agree to disagree....

I definitely hope to be at Euro 2012.