Previous games...
1. SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) - PUSH
2. Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN
3. SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit)
4. Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN
5. USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6. SLV / ALG - no bet
7. Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS
8. Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS
9. Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN
10. Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS
11. Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
12. Slovakia -.5 -200 (risked 1 unit) - LOSS
13. Ivory Coast / PTGL - no bet
14. Bzl / NK - no bet
Futures...
1. Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units)
2. Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit)
3. Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units)
4. Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units)
5. England to win group C -320 (2 units)
6. USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units)
7. Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit)
8. Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit)
9. Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units)
10. Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit)
11. Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS
12. Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units)
13. NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) - SICK LOSS
14. Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units)
15. NK zero points -140 (2 units)
16. Switz to advance +160 (1 unit)
17. Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18. Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
19. No african team to advance +1200 (1 unit)
20. No african team qtr finals +165 (2 units)
WEDNESDAY JUNE 16
15. Chile / Honduras - Chile -173 (to win 2 units) - I really like Chile here - talent mismatch and style mismatch - Chile will run and gun and put shots on net - when Honduras gets behind, lookout snowball. Predicted final score Chile 3 Honduras 0.
16. Spain / Switzerland - Switzerland +1.5 -102 - (.5 unit) Against my better judgement, I will hold my balls and cough and hope for first game issues for Spain and no goals for as long as possible. Predicted Final score Spain 1-0.
17. Uruguay / South Africa - Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) (also worth a look at +145 to win, I bet the PK, but think that the win price is great too) - This will be my biggest bet to date - think this sets up nicely for Uruguay - they did what they wanted to do against France and got the draw - and now will set Suarez and Forlan loose on a defense that will have lapses. Uruguay is solid at the back, and I dont think you will see the breakaways that SA got against Mexico - and I think now that the first game is out of the way for SA - emotions wont be as high. Im sticking to my pretournament guns on this - if I am wrong it will be a lump.....Predicted final score Uruguay 2 SA 0.
Thursday June 17
18. Argentina / Korea - Over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - I guess you have to have balls or stupidity to bet an over on this tournament, but this might be a good spot to start. Argentina should have scored a bunch against Nigeria - good goalkeeping kept them from converting - along with first game mistakes. I fully expect to see S Korea playing for a draw here - as that result would greatly help them qualify for the next round - and I think that style will hurt them here. Once the Argentines score - the game will open up greatly - but as we saw today with N Korea a team that wants to play defensively can often keep a team at bay for long periods of time. Im banking on an Argentina goal in the first half, and open play from there - I do think Argentina wins this game but the price is too steep for me - so a small bet on the over for me. Final score prediction Argentina 2-1.
19. Nigeria / Greece - Greece +.5 -109 (2 units) - Once again, sticking to my pretournament guns on this one. I dont think Greece is as bad as they looked against SK, and I dont think Nigeria is as good as they looked against Argentina. And that presents a good betting line. I am most concerned that Greece might press out of their usual defensive tactic and try to be something they are not - but Nigeria will be doing the same as both of these teams need a win - a draw wont suit either terribly well (although it is better for NIgeria than Greece). This is another hold my balls and cough plays - Predicted final score Greece 1 Nigeria 1.
20. France / Mexico - France +138 (1.5 units risked) - I think the line has finally risen above value for France - based on the perception (rightfully so) that they cant play together. But I think that Mexico's defensive lapses will provide the open door that France needs to pull it together. Mexico will be overmatched - and the lack of playmaking that we saw against S Africa will kill them here - France is disciplined on defense and will not let up a goal like S Africa did because of lack of concentration. France individual talent lifts them here - Predicted final score France 2-0.
GL all
The Swiss havent been scored on in their last 5 world cup games spanning 4 years......
Take notice.
That is a great fucking result for me, won my bet today, swiss to advance looks great, and now Spain is most likely out of the Argentina side of the bracket.
Fucking great.
The Swiss havent been scored on in their last 5 world cup games spanning 4 years......
Take notice.
That is a great fucking result for me, won my bet today, swiss to advance looks great, and now Spain is most likely out of the Argentina side of the bracket.
Fucking great.
You are obviously smarter than me. I misread the Chile line move too, but Im sure you got that one right.
Do me a favor and let me know the line moves for the weekend games now, so I can plan ahead.
Thanks in advance.
This is only a guess, but I think the over looks cheap. I would think it would be more like -150 on the over.
Great morning VZ
Happy to be on both Chile and Switz,, thanks to you.
Also have that Switzerland to advance bet.
This afternoon have one unit on Uruguay pk/-1/2. This is how it was presented at 5Dimes . Never made a bet like this before. I assume I win my bet on a Uruguay win and lose 1/2 unit on a draw. Right? Thanks again.Keep up the good work..
Great morning VZ
Happy to be on both Chile and Switz,, thanks to you.
Also have that Switzerland to advance bet.
This afternoon have one unit on Uruguay pk/-1/2. This is how it was presented at 5Dimes . Never made a bet like this before. I assume I win my bet on a Uruguay win and lose 1/2 unit on a draw. Right? Thanks again.Keep up the good work..
That is correct - but as long as they have a 3 way line you can get it at a true pick.
If you want me to do the math for you and tell you exactly what to bet to get it at a PK, just post your lines on the 3 way line, how many units you already bet, and at what line.
Example if you were starting from scratch:
Uruguay +150
S Africa +240
Draw +210
To get Uruguay at a true PK, you would bet 100 on Uruguay to win, and 47.60 on the draw.
You now break even on a draw, and win 102 if Uruguay wins, and lose 147.60 if SA win. So you have Uruguay at a PK at -144.
Spain would be in the semifinal - but only if they win the group. If they come in second, they are on the other side.
Dumb question of the century......
What is Uruguay PK (-140)? The only line I can find is Uruguay +140 which I assume means Uruguay to win, +140. Is PK -140 mean they can win or tie? Not sure why I can't find that option in either of my books?
now Spain is most likely out of the Argentina side of the bracket.
Van, interested to hear how you see this playing out. I was taking a look at the odds on Spain to win the group (after their loss) and was trying to figure out if there was value.
Obviously Spain would have to beat Honduras and Chile.
If they did this, then they would advance under the following scenarios:
i) Switzerland draws with Chile and loses/draws with Honduras.
ii) Switzerland loses to Chile and loses/draws with Honduras. (In this scenario Spain would need a better goal differential than Chile. However, I think that is quite likely consider Spain would have to beat both Honduras and Chile for this scenario to occur).
iii) Switzerland loses to Chile and Switzerland beats Honduras. (In this scenario Spain would need a better goal differential than both Chile and Switzerland.
Clearly, Spain winning the group is far from a sure thing now, but I'm thinking there might be value if you could get Spain for +200 or better....as I think there may be better than a 33% chance of one of those scenarios occuring.
I'm interested to know what probability you would give Spain to win their group at this point?
Dumb question of the century......
What is Uruguay PK (-140)? The only line I can find is Uruguay +140 which I assume means Uruguay to win, +140. Is PK -140 mean they can win or tie? Not sure why I can't find that option in either of my books?
Read post #438 above.
Van, interested to hear how you see this playing out. I was taking a look at the odds on Spain to win the group (after their loss) and was trying to figure out if there was value.
Obviously Spain would have to beat Honduras and Chile.
If they did this, then they would advance under the following scenarios:
i) Switzerland draws with Chile and loses/draws with Honduras.
ii) Switzerland loses to Chile and loses/draws with Honduras. (In this scenario Spain would need a better goal differential than Chile. However, I think that is quite likely consider Spain would have to beat both Honduras and Chile for this scenario to occur).
iii) Switzerland loses to Chile and Switzerland beats Honduras. (In this scenario Spain would need a better goal differential than both Chile and Switzerland.
Clearly, Spain winning the group is far from a sure thing now, but I'm thinking there might be value if you could get Spain for +200 or better....as I think there may be better than a 33% chance of one of those scenarios occuring.
I'm interested to know what probability you would give Spain to win their group at this point?
Here are my thoughts....
The likelihood of Spain having a better goal differential than Switzerland if they are tied is VERY good. Spain will simply beat teams worse than the Swiss will - so keep that in mind.
I cant see either Spain or Switzerland NOT winning against Honduras. Maybe, somehow, if the Swiss dont score it can end 0-0, but I would put a very high probability on both winning.
So if both win, it will be Switz 6, Spain 3.
So you are basically betting that Spain beats Chile, and Switz loses to Chile. Because if Switz beats Honduras, this is the only way Spain can get past them - and even then it comes down to goal differential.
Now - If this DOES happen, dont forget that Chile will be sitting on 6 points as well in a 3 way tie, and Spain would have to beat them as well in a goal differential.
All in all - I think +200 is a miserable wager - mostly because of the Honduras factor. Because if both beat honduras, your true odds should be more like +2000.
Here are my thoughts....
The likelihood of Spain having a better goal differential than Switzerland if they are tied is VERY good. Spain will simply beat teams worse than the Swiss will - so keep that in mind.
I cant see either Spain or Switzerland NOT winning against Honduras. Maybe, somehow, if the Swiss dont score it can end 0-0, but I would put a very high probability on both winning.
So if both win, it will be Switz 6, Spain 3.
So you are basically betting that Spain beats Chile, and Switz loses to Chile. Because if Switz beats Honduras, this is the only way Spain can get past them - and even then it comes down to goal differential.
Now - If this DOES happen, dont forget that Chile will be sitting on 6 points as well in a 3 way tie, and Spain would have to beat them as well in a goal differential.
All in all - I think +200 is a miserable wager - mostly because of the Honduras factor. Because if both beat honduras, your true odds should be more like +2000.
Okay fair enough.
I think I assigned a much higher probability to the chances of Switzerland drawing with Honduras. If the Swiss draw with Chile, then all they will need against Honduras is a draw. So I thought they might play quite defensively against Honduras, playing for a draw at worst.
Anyway, really appreciate the insight. I'm sure your predictions on how this group will play out have a better chance of occurring than mine do.
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