TERRIBLE league week. Started strong then lost every decision following the Arsenal game for a 3-7 finish. Ugh.
Champions:
Napoli -140. 1 unit. Napoli has to win this match to advance as they surged ahead of Man City with the victory against the British side at home last week. Man City hosts an already in Bayern Munich so the pressure will be on Napoli to advance.
Bayern Munich +420. 1 unit. Chances are that if Man City learns Napoli is winning, they fold quick. Bayern can hang here and possibly take the win from a deflated Man City side. Like the value.
Basel +480. 1 unit. I doubt both Manchester squads wont make it through but I like Basel's chances at home. Basel would get to the next round with an upset here and they've been good in group play, tying Man U on the road. Hopefully I get one of these.
Real Madrid +160. Real has already moved to the next round but they have simply punished every team they have faced. Ajax only need tie to move on but there's a real risk it wont happen.
Leverkusen -190. High juice I know but the opposition is terrible scoring only 1 goal in 5 games but giving up 15. The German just need to put it through to advance, GENK just wants it to be over with. 1 unit.
Chelsea - 140. I'll take Chelsea as the side that gets through at home. this should be a great game. 1 unit.
Zenit +400. 1 unit. Zenit seems underrated here and Porto lost 3-1 at St Pete the first time these teams played. Zenit will be content with a tie but Porto will press, giving top scorer Kerzhakov opportunities. Good value.
FC Barcelona -1.5 -130. 1 unit. OK, no more betting against thes guys and high line totals. this one is actually low considering BATE has already packed it in and Barca beat them 5-0 on the road last time they met in Champions.
Lots of risk bets but Im hovering around .500, I'll take a chance or two.
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TERRIBLE league week. Started strong then lost every decision following the Arsenal game for a 3-7 finish. Ugh.
Champions:
Napoli -140. 1 unit. Napoli has to win this match to advance as they surged ahead of Man City with the victory against the British side at home last week. Man City hosts an already in Bayern Munich so the pressure will be on Napoli to advance.
Bayern Munich +420. 1 unit. Chances are that if Man City learns Napoli is winning, they fold quick. Bayern can hang here and possibly take the win from a deflated Man City side. Like the value.
Basel +480. 1 unit. I doubt both Manchester squads wont make it through but I like Basel's chances at home. Basel would get to the next round with an upset here and they've been good in group play, tying Man U on the road. Hopefully I get one of these.
Real Madrid +160. Real has already moved to the next round but they have simply punished every team they have faced. Ajax only need tie to move on but there's a real risk it wont happen.
Leverkusen -190. High juice I know but the opposition is terrible scoring only 1 goal in 5 games but giving up 15. The German just need to put it through to advance, GENK just wants it to be over with. 1 unit.
Chelsea - 140. I'll take Chelsea as the side that gets through at home. this should be a great game. 1 unit.
Zenit +400. 1 unit. Zenit seems underrated here and Porto lost 3-1 at St Pete the first time these teams played. Zenit will be content with a tie but Porto will press, giving top scorer Kerzhakov opportunities. Good value.
FC Barcelona -1.5 -130. 1 unit. OK, no more betting against thes guys and high line totals. this one is actually low considering BATE has already packed it in and Barca beat them 5-0 on the road last time they met in Champions.
Lots of risk bets but Im hovering around .500, I'll take a chance or two.
League play. I see some "easy" hits so lets hope it isnt a catastrophe like last week.
Serie A
Lazio +100. Miroslav Klose's squad easily takes out the worst team in Serie A. Lazio beat them 4-2 on the road in May. 3 units.
Palermo -140. Palermo hasn't lost at home and I dont see that ending here against the 2nd worst team in Serie A. Another Northern Italian team coming into a hostile environment. 2 units.
Udinese. - 200. Again, high juice but Udinese is such a strong squad at home. 1 unit.
La Liga:
Barcelona/Real over 2.5 -140. 1 unit. While its possible these two will play defensive to a 1-1 draw I don't see that happening. A-teams were rested during Champions league for this match.
Real Madrid +150. And I think its these guys. If I was a Real fan Id be sick and tired of Messi this and that, especially if I was Cristiano Ronaldo. Punch in the mouth time. 1 unit.
Malaga over 2.5 -110. 1 unit. Not saying Osasuna will get crushed 7-1 like they were against Real Madrid but they have a tendency to give up goals on the road. Both teams can score against even good defensive teams so I like my chances.
Bundesliga:
FSV Mainz over 2.5. -140. 1 unit. Both teams loose with the goals, both averaging over 3.5 a game.
Monchengladbach. +100 1 unit. I expect them to bounce back after the draw with Dortmund. Augsburg is at the bottom of the Bundesliga, I expect Monch to take advantage with or without Reus.
Werder -150. 1 unit. Another high juice pick but Werder is 6-1 at home while Wolfsburg is 1-1-6 on the road. Look for team leading scorer Pizzaro to net one.
Premier League:
Sunderland over 2.5 -120. All Blackburn does is give up goals on the road. Sunderland's attackers aren't fantastic but if they want a win, this is a good chance at one. 1 unit.
Swansea under 2.5 -130. Fulham and Swansea will play a defensive minded 1-0 grinder. At home Swansea puts on the clamps. 1 unit.
Ligue 1:
Sochaux over 2.5 +100. 3 units. Saint-Germain are the leading scorers in Ligue 1 and Sochaux games are high scoring affairs. The last time a game between these two didn't go over was 2008.
Lille/Man U to win -210. Both of these teams I expect to win handily but the juice was too high. Parlayed them to make a bet more palatable. 1 unit.
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League play. I see some "easy" hits so lets hope it isnt a catastrophe like last week.
Serie A
Lazio +100. Miroslav Klose's squad easily takes out the worst team in Serie A. Lazio beat them 4-2 on the road in May. 3 units.
Palermo -140. Palermo hasn't lost at home and I dont see that ending here against the 2nd worst team in Serie A. Another Northern Italian team coming into a hostile environment. 2 units.
Udinese. - 200. Again, high juice but Udinese is such a strong squad at home. 1 unit.
La Liga:
Barcelona/Real over 2.5 -140. 1 unit. While its possible these two will play defensive to a 1-1 draw I don't see that happening. A-teams were rested during Champions league for this match.
Real Madrid +150. And I think its these guys. If I was a Real fan Id be sick and tired of Messi this and that, especially if I was Cristiano Ronaldo. Punch in the mouth time. 1 unit.
Malaga over 2.5 -110. 1 unit. Not saying Osasuna will get crushed 7-1 like they were against Real Madrid but they have a tendency to give up goals on the road. Both teams can score against even good defensive teams so I like my chances.
Bundesliga:
FSV Mainz over 2.5. -140. 1 unit. Both teams loose with the goals, both averaging over 3.5 a game.
Monchengladbach. +100 1 unit. I expect them to bounce back after the draw with Dortmund. Augsburg is at the bottom of the Bundesliga, I expect Monch to take advantage with or without Reus.
Werder -150. 1 unit. Another high juice pick but Werder is 6-1 at home while Wolfsburg is 1-1-6 on the road. Look for team leading scorer Pizzaro to net one.
Premier League:
Sunderland over 2.5 -120. All Blackburn does is give up goals on the road. Sunderland's attackers aren't fantastic but if they want a win, this is a good chance at one. 1 unit.
Swansea under 2.5 -130. Fulham and Swansea will play a defensive minded 1-0 grinder. At home Swansea puts on the clamps. 1 unit.
Ligue 1:
Sochaux over 2.5 +100. 3 units. Saint-Germain are the leading scorers in Ligue 1 and Sochaux games are high scoring affairs. The last time a game between these two didn't go over was 2008.
Lille/Man U to win -210. Both of these teams I expect to win handily but the juice was too high. Parlayed them to make a bet more palatable. 1 unit.
Tottenham +110. 1 unit. The Hotspurs own Stoke City in the last few matches and has had trouble at home losing 2 of the last 3 there.The Spurs have only lost to Man U on the road and have been dominant otherwise.
Eredivisie:
Make-up game Dec 7th AZ Alkmaar over Excelsior. I'll take first vs worst at -200 any day. Line low because of AZ blowout by Heerenveen but they will redeem themselves here, even on the road. 1 unit.
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Adding to League play picks:
Tottenham +110. 1 unit. The Hotspurs own Stoke City in the last few matches and has had trouble at home losing 2 of the last 3 there.The Spurs have only lost to Man U on the road and have been dominant otherwise.
Eredivisie:
Make-up game Dec 7th AZ Alkmaar over Excelsior. I'll take first vs worst at -200 any day. Line low because of AZ blowout by Heerenveen but they will redeem themselves here, even on the road. 1 unit.
Lille under 2.5 -120. 1 unit. Both sides will play conservative until the closing minutes when one side will put one through to advance.
Inter +150. Something is seriously wrong with CSKA. They lost their last two Russian Premier league games and got beat on their home turf by non-powerhouse Lille 2 weeks ago. With the pressure on in Italy, I see the downward spiral continue. 1 unit.
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2-2 today. Adding to Champions:
Lille under 2.5 -120. 1 unit. Both sides will play conservative until the closing minutes when one side will put one through to advance.
Inter +150. Something is seriously wrong with CSKA. They lost their last two Russian Premier league games and got beat on their home turf by non-powerhouse Lille 2 weeks ago. With the pressure on in Italy, I see the downward spiral continue. 1 unit.
Basel beats United! Basel beats United! Its no "Giants win the pennant!" moment but what a great bet! I thought it would be Bayern with the upset but WOW both Man U and City are going to Europa!
7-6 overall for Champions League with 3 being real reaches..but only needed 1! +4 units.
65-62-5 -5.7 units. overall
.5 unit plays 0-2
1 unit plays 56-44-4
2 unit plays 7-15
3 unit plays 2-1-1
Sides 32-36
O/U 33-26-5
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Basel beats United! Basel beats United! Its no "Giants win the pennant!" moment but what a great bet! I thought it would be Bayern with the upset but WOW both Man U and City are going to Europa!
7-6 overall for Champions League with 3 being real reaches..but only needed 1! +4 units.
Inter Milan under 2.5 -140. I expect a tight game considering their leading scorer is Diego Milito, 32 years old and with a whopping 3 goals. Fiorentina has only let one game get away from them on the road and that was a 2-1 loss to Juventus. 1 unit.
Schalke 04 +150. 1 unit. Was going to walk away but cant get over the fact Schalke has been very good lately and there is good value here. Also, Schalke owns Hertha winning 8, drawing 2 and losing none of the last 10 played.
Ajax over 3 -140. I HATE taking three lines. That being said, I fully expect Ajax to be smarting from the boot from Champions. I see them taking it out on bottom dwellers RKC. 1 unit.
PSV Eindhoven over 3 - 200. Lots of juice AND a 3 line? All PSV does is score goals at home. In bunches. NAC Breda has had every game on the road hit the 3 mark so far. 1 unit.
FC Utrecht over 3 -120. I am absolutely convinced Utrecht plays with no goalie at home. Every home match this year has hit 3 goals with the last two clocking in at 2-6 and 6-4. Ooof. Those are tennis scores. Feyenoord are better on defense but their strikers have to be licking their chops on getting goals this game. And in case you think its a one-sided affair, Utrecht averages 2.75 goals a game at home BY ITSELF. 3 units.
FC Groningen over 3 +100. Im living and dying by the 3 so to speak in Eredivisie. Another good situation with good value. Both teams near equal in the league with Groningen needing to look better than they did in the PSV beatdown last week and Vitesse having much better luck hitting the net at home. 1 unit.
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Adding to League play:
Inter Milan under 2.5 -140. I expect a tight game considering their leading scorer is Diego Milito, 32 years old and with a whopping 3 goals. Fiorentina has only let one game get away from them on the road and that was a 2-1 loss to Juventus. 1 unit.
Schalke 04 +150. 1 unit. Was going to walk away but cant get over the fact Schalke has been very good lately and there is good value here. Also, Schalke owns Hertha winning 8, drawing 2 and losing none of the last 10 played.
Ajax over 3 -140. I HATE taking three lines. That being said, I fully expect Ajax to be smarting from the boot from Champions. I see them taking it out on bottom dwellers RKC. 1 unit.
PSV Eindhoven over 3 - 200. Lots of juice AND a 3 line? All PSV does is score goals at home. In bunches. NAC Breda has had every game on the road hit the 3 mark so far. 1 unit.
FC Utrecht over 3 -120. I am absolutely convinced Utrecht plays with no goalie at home. Every home match this year has hit 3 goals with the last two clocking in at 2-6 and 6-4. Ooof. Those are tennis scores. Feyenoord are better on defense but their strikers have to be licking their chops on getting goals this game. And in case you think its a one-sided affair, Utrecht averages 2.75 goals a game at home BY ITSELF. 3 units.
FC Groningen over 3 +100. Im living and dying by the 3 so to speak in Eredivisie. Another good situation with good value. Both teams near equal in the league with Groningen needing to look better than they did in the PSV beatdown last week and Vitesse having much better luck hitting the net at home. 1 unit.
If Genoa and Inter can keep playing keep away, I'll have a nice 3-0 run to cap off a too many bets league week where I will have finished 13-11. I think for all of that I made .5 units. Full breakdown later.
Europa picks:
Tottenham/Shamrock over 2.5 -140 1 unit. Shamrock manager's last game plus having nothing to play for except pride should mean a higher scoring game even if Tottenham is saving players for the Premier League match this weekend. Also, Tottenham has the slightest chance to advance if they score 6 or so goals so they will be pressing.
PAOK/Rubin over 2 -120. Sure both teams are probably locked up but Rubin will breathe easier with a goal or two and at least a draw. 1 unit.
Vaslui +140 1 unit. I like their chances against Zurich. Deadlocked with Lazio for the second spot, they can move on with a win and more goals than Lazio who hosts group leader Sporting CP.
Salzburg - 140. 1 unit. Similar situation to above with PSG. With a four goal lead, they just need to beat the worst team in the group and they advance. Shouldn't take much.
Austria Wein - 240. 1 unit. Lots of juice but they are going to need to beat Malmo at home if they have any shot to advance. They are also one goal behind. If AZ ties Metalist, it will go to total goals.
Austria/Malmo over 2.5 -110. For the reasons above and last in group Malmo is scored on at will on the road. 1 unit.
Braga/Brugge over 2 -140. 1 unit. Both team can score, their games in Europa have averaged over 3 goals each. Sure they may have it locked up but I'll take the over for two scoring teams.
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If Genoa and Inter can keep playing keep away, I'll have a nice 3-0 run to cap off a too many bets league week where I will have finished 13-11. I think for all of that I made .5 units. Full breakdown later.
Europa picks:
Tottenham/Shamrock over 2.5 -140 1 unit. Shamrock manager's last game plus having nothing to play for except pride should mean a higher scoring game even if Tottenham is saving players for the Premier League match this weekend. Also, Tottenham has the slightest chance to advance if they score 6 or so goals so they will be pressing.
PAOK/Rubin over 2 -120. Sure both teams are probably locked up but Rubin will breathe easier with a goal or two and at least a draw. 1 unit.
Vaslui +140 1 unit. I like their chances against Zurich. Deadlocked with Lazio for the second spot, they can move on with a win and more goals than Lazio who hosts group leader Sporting CP.
Salzburg - 140. 1 unit. Similar situation to above with PSG. With a four goal lead, they just need to beat the worst team in the group and they advance. Shouldn't take much.
Austria Wein - 240. 1 unit. Lots of juice but they are going to need to beat Malmo at home if they have any shot to advance. They are also one goal behind. If AZ ties Metalist, it will go to total goals.
Austria/Malmo over 2.5 -110. For the reasons above and last in group Malmo is scored on at will on the road. 1 unit.
Braga/Brugge over 2 -140. 1 unit. Both team can score, their games in Europa have averaged over 3 goals each. Sure they may have it locked up but I'll take the over for two scoring teams.
Adding Beskitas -110. 3 units. This one comes from DiamondJack who let the board know that Stoke sent its B team. Then this AM I read that the Beskitas coach will be back for this game after being in jail and that fans are going nuts. Also that Stoke B took forever to get to Istanbul and got in late and tired. With Stoke already in and Beskitas fired up, this seems like pretty decent bet.
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Adding Beskitas -110. 3 units. This one comes from DiamondJack who let the board know that Stoke sent its B team. Then this AM I read that the Beskitas coach will be back for this game after being in jail and that fans are going nuts. Also that Stoke B took forever to get to Istanbul and got in late and tired. With Stoke already in and Beskitas fired up, this seems like pretty decent bet.
Yesterday and this AM started so promising but PAOK giving up a tying goal to 10 man Rubin....ugh. Missed headers in this game, Wein, and Brugge...Argh. Still, another winning slate in the books. 4-3-2. +2.9 units! Special thanks to DiamondJack for the Beskitas info.
League play this week. A lot smaller than 24 games this time.
Arsenal/Man City over 2.5 -140. Everything points to this being a high scoring game. Games where Arsenal is on the road and against top tier teams get brutal. They have beaten Chelsea 5-3, lost to Man U 8-2, and Tottenham 2-1. All three of those teams have great strikers as does Man City. They played to a 0-0 draw last time in the EPL (not counting the B team 1-0 in the Carling Cup) but with these clubs, I doubt we'll see that again. 3 units.
Tottenham/Chelsea parlay to win -120. Both of these teams are playing games you are supposed to win if you are competing for a championship. Bottom feeder beat downs. 1 unit.
Fulham/Bolton over 2.5 -110. 1 unit. Bolton is simply terrible on the road and anything under -150 should be a good bet. 100% of Bolton's games have gone over 2.5 when away.
Monchengladbach. -110 Healthy Reus or no, if the Bundesliga dark horse wants to stay in contention, they need this win at home. 1 unit.
Schalke04 over 2.5 -160. 2 units. Schalke is on fire and 75% of Schalke games go over at home. Huntelaar leads Schalke scorers and Werder can find net as well with Pizzaro.
Palermo under 2.5 -140 1 unit. Another Serie A game that points to a low scoring affair. Considering how Palermo fares on the road, they'll be looking for it. Dont like that last two games with Catania have gone to 4 goals so hoping to buck that trend.
Genoa under 2.5 -130. 1 unit. Nothing points to a shoot-out as 85% of Bologna games go under when they visit an opponent. No scorers on fire for either squad.
Udinese under 2.5. -140. 1 unit. Love Udinese defense! My unit bet would be higher except for the fact that the last 3 times Lazio and Udinese played they went over. Still, on paper two defensive minded teams.
Juventus -1.5 +100. 1 unit. Dont like the 2 goals as Juventus rarely blows teams out but I think they have a shot at home versus Novara.
Montpellier -120. I like the league leader here at home in a tough match-up.
Osasuna +120. 1 unit. Villareal hasnt won a game on the road and looked awful in UEFA. Osasuna has won 3 of 4 at home and has beaten up on mid and bottom tier teams.
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Yesterday and this AM started so promising but PAOK giving up a tying goal to 10 man Rubin....ugh. Missed headers in this game, Wein, and Brugge...Argh. Still, another winning slate in the books. 4-3-2. +2.9 units! Special thanks to DiamondJack for the Beskitas info.
League play this week. A lot smaller than 24 games this time.
Arsenal/Man City over 2.5 -140. Everything points to this being a high scoring game. Games where Arsenal is on the road and against top tier teams get brutal. They have beaten Chelsea 5-3, lost to Man U 8-2, and Tottenham 2-1. All three of those teams have great strikers as does Man City. They played to a 0-0 draw last time in the EPL (not counting the B team 1-0 in the Carling Cup) but with these clubs, I doubt we'll see that again. 3 units.
Tottenham/Chelsea parlay to win -120. Both of these teams are playing games you are supposed to win if you are competing for a championship. Bottom feeder beat downs. 1 unit.
Fulham/Bolton over 2.5 -110. 1 unit. Bolton is simply terrible on the road and anything under -150 should be a good bet. 100% of Bolton's games have gone over 2.5 when away.
Monchengladbach. -110 Healthy Reus or no, if the Bundesliga dark horse wants to stay in contention, they need this win at home. 1 unit.
Schalke04 over 2.5 -160. 2 units. Schalke is on fire and 75% of Schalke games go over at home. Huntelaar leads Schalke scorers and Werder can find net as well with Pizzaro.
Palermo under 2.5 -140 1 unit. Another Serie A game that points to a low scoring affair. Considering how Palermo fares on the road, they'll be looking for it. Dont like that last two games with Catania have gone to 4 goals so hoping to buck that trend.
Genoa under 2.5 -130. 1 unit. Nothing points to a shoot-out as 85% of Bologna games go under when they visit an opponent. No scorers on fire for either squad.
Udinese under 2.5. -140. 1 unit. Love Udinese defense! My unit bet would be higher except for the fact that the last 3 times Lazio and Udinese played they went over. Still, on paper two defensive minded teams.
Juventus -1.5 +100. 1 unit. Dont like the 2 goals as Juventus rarely blows teams out but I think they have a shot at home versus Novara.
Montpellier -120. I like the league leader here at home in a tough match-up.
Osasuna +120. 1 unit. Villareal hasnt won a game on the road and looked awful in UEFA. Osasuna has won 3 of 4 at home and has beaten up on mid and bottom tier teams.
Adding Valencia -130. 1 unit. Besides the 2-3 loss to Real a few weeks ago, Valencia has been playing tough. Malaga has lost every game to top tier teams. Should continue here.
Tallies corrected through Europa
82-76-7 -2.0 units. overall
.5 unit plays 0-2
1 unit plays 69-56-6
2 unit plays 8-16
3 unit plays 5-2-1
Sides 40-43
O/U 42-33-7
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Adding Valencia -130. 1 unit. Besides the 2-3 loss to Real a few weeks ago, Valencia has been playing tough. Malaga has lost every game to top tier teams. Should continue here.
im loving schalke -105 at home...i would play that instead of the heavy juice -160. if there's goals to be scored schalke will be in on that and win the game
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im loving schalke -105 at home...i would play that instead of the heavy juice -160. if there's goals to be scored schalke will be in on that and win the game
6-6 League play - 3 units. Argh Man City and Arsenal....
88-82-7 -5.0 units. overall
.5 unit plays 0-2
1 unit plays 74-61-6
2 unit plays 9-16
3 unit plays 5-3-1
Sides 44-45
O/U 44-37-7
Considering my results in NFL and CBB this weekend, I suppose I'll take it.
Wolves over 2.5 -130. 1 unit. Wolverhampton games go over with regularity. Not sure of the scoring power of Norwich but I dont see a defensive chess match coming.
Arsenal -140. 1 unit. Hoping Arsenal takes out its frustrations on losing the Man City game on Aston Villa
Tottenham +170 1 unit. I hope the Spurs beat Chelsea senseless after costing me my parlay and POTW in bakes contest.
Lazio under 2.5 - 120. 1 unit. I expect a tight low scoring affair here.
Toulouse under 2.5 -150. 1 unit. Going with the French under theory with two teams that don't have a high scoring output. Brest is anemic on the road.
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6-6 League play - 3 units. Argh Man City and Arsenal....
88-82-7 -5.0 units. overall
.5 unit plays 0-2
1 unit plays 74-61-6
2 unit plays 9-16
3 unit plays 5-3-1
Sides 44-45
O/U 44-37-7
Considering my results in NFL and CBB this weekend, I suppose I'll take it.
Wolves over 2.5 -130. 1 unit. Wolverhampton games go over with regularity. Not sure of the scoring power of Norwich but I dont see a defensive chess match coming.
Arsenal -140. 1 unit. Hoping Arsenal takes out its frustrations on losing the Man City game on Aston Villa
Tottenham +170 1 unit. I hope the Spurs beat Chelsea senseless after costing me my parlay and POTW in bakes contest.
Lazio under 2.5 - 120. 1 unit. I expect a tight low scoring affair here.
Toulouse under 2.5 -150. 1 unit. Going with the French under theory with two teams that don't have a high scoring output. Brest is anemic on the road.
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