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Posted: #26
That Brazil parlay didnt turn out as planned. Probably the first and last of those.

Action today:

France under 2.5 -140. Anytime you get 2 1/2 for France you take it. Belgium has attackers but I think it plays 1-1 or 2-0. 1 unit.

Germany over 3. +130. Dont usually like the 3 goals line but the Netherlands has Schalke super striker Huntelaar who was rested in the previous match for this game and the Germans seem to have defense issues. 1 unit.

Portugal under 2 1/2 -110. Aftee the 0-0 sraw I think both sides play conservative looking for. The 1-0 meeded to advance. 1 unit.
 
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Posted: #27
Adding Bosnia. Half a unit +860. It shouldnt happen but Portugal is not 9 times better than Bosnia.
 
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Posted: #28
Adding Argentina/Columbia under 2 1/2 -140. 1 unit. Should be played tight and close as Columbia has a good squad. Just always have to worry about Messi.
 
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Posted: #29
Terrible day 1-3-1  -2.0 units

24-21-2  +1.5 units
 
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Posted: #30
Big week back to league play. Lots of bets.

Bundesliga:

Bayern/Dortmund over 2 1/2 -140. 2 units. Dortmund thinks they can win this game after their 5-1 crush over Wolfsburg so they won't be playing tight. Bayern scores goals like crazy at home. They have beaten opponents 18-0 in their last 4 home games. Ouch! Hopefully Dortmund can get 1 in to bank the bet.

Bayern -160 1 unit. I know this is high but they are crushing Bundesliga and Champions. Hard to bet against success. 3-1 Bayern hopefully.

Schalke -150. 1 unit. This figures to be tight. In what little I've seen, these guys underwhelm in tight contests. That being said Nurnberg has lost its last 3 on the road. That streak won't end here.

Hertha over 2 1/2 -130. 1 unit. Hertha likes to shoot it out on the road and Freiburg has given up the most goals per game in the Bundesliga. Need Freiburg to score here.

Ligue 1:

Marseille over 2. -140. 1 unit. I hate to bet French overs but both teams are offensive leaders in Ligue 1. Draw is likelybu but if they figure out how to score an extra we've got a winner.

Bordeux over 2. -140. 1 unit. Similar logic. Bordeux is a mid tier team that has been in some higher scoring affairs lately and Dijon coughs up 2 per game on average. Just need that extra for a winner.

Sochaux over 2 -140. 3 units. Two more mid tiers that can give up goals. Lots of 1-1 results between these two teams games. Only 4 of Brests 13 games have been under 2 and they were all on the road (they are at home here). Sochaux hasnt has a single game go under 2. I really like this bet.

Russian Premier:

CSKA Moscow +100. 1 unit. Time for the playoffs in Russia. #2 seed CSKA should beat Rubin Kazan at home and with great 1-1 value.

Want to bet Zenit but too pricey.

EPL:

Arsenal over 2 1/2 -150. 2 units. Both Arsenal and Norwich have been in some score fests lately, Arsenal more impressively so in some shootouts with top tier Chelsea and Tottenham. Its been 2 months since an Arsenal game has gone over.

Series A:

AC Milan. +120. 1 unit. On the road AC Milan is pretty formidible and they have won 7 straight against Fiorentina going back to 2008. Ouch! I think its close but AC Milan is on a tear and needs to keep pace with Udinese on top of Series A.

More to come later






 
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Posted: #31
CORRECTION: Its been 2 months since an Arsenal game has gone UNDER.
 
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Posted: #32
Zaragoza +3 -110. 1 unit. Wow. Three goals? Barca is great but I like the chance that it ends up 2-0 or 3-1 first. When they played in May the result was a 1-0 Barca win.

 
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Posted: #33
NEC Nijmegen. -160. 1 unit. Roda gives up an average of 4 goals on the road and NEC has had a tough stretch of games. Time to book their 3rd win in a row. Roda is 0-5 on the road as well.

FC Twente over 2 1/2. -140. 1 unit. Twente has scored in every single game this year and 75% have gone over the 2.5.
 
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Posted: #34
Weekennd massacre tally coming but adding Tottenham -190.  1 unit. Hotspurs are too good to lose this one.
 
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Posted: #35
4-8-2 -5.8 units over that stretch.

28-29-4 -4.3 units overall. Ugh

UEFA

CSKA +120 1 unit. These guys have been dissapointing lately but I think a home match against listless Lille is the cure.

Inter Milan +140. 1 unit. Revenge game against Trabonspor. Can we avoid the draw please?

Ajax +320. 1 unit. Ajax side is depleted but Lyon has never beaten Ajax and I see a follow through of Ajax scoring from their Holland league draw.

Arsenal +100. 1 unit. I'm sure Dortmund will be giddy from their Bayern win but I'm thinking Arsenal will put this one through.

Marseille under 2.5. -120. 1 unit. French under auto play.

AC Milan +340. Wow talk about a slap. Hopefully the home team will be fired up for this one. 1 unit.

AC Milan over 2.5 -120. Surprised this is that low! If you're gonna beat the best you have to out score em. 1 unit.

CSKA under 2 1/2. -130. 1 unit. This one comes from my buddy who says 1 Russian and 1 French team equals twoFrench teams so auto under rule applies here as well.

Man City. +100. It will probably be a draw but in this winner take all match I'll go with the team on fire. Best game of Champions this week. 1 unit.

Good luck all!
 
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Posted: #36
4-5 and -1 unit for UEFA.  Hindsight says I should have skipped the Man City bet but meh, better than the last round of bets.

32-34-4 -5.3 units overall
 
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Posted: #37
Italian Serie A:

Palermo +130.  2 units.  The Sicilians continue their Jekyll and Hyde routine.  Getting a good line because of the Juventus thrashing.  2 units.

Juventus/Roma under 2 1/2 -130.  Look for league leaders chess match.  1 unit.

Udinese/Roma under 2 1/2 - 120.  1 unit.  Another tight game between top Serie A teams

Sienna/Inter over 2 1/2.  Inter can light it up and Sienna has been at home as well. +110.  1 unit.

Napoli/Atalanta under 2 1/2 - 140.  Lots of juice but I dont see Atalanta scoring.

Bundesliga:

Dortmund/Schalke over 2 1/2. -120.  Smarting from their loss to Arsenal I see Dortmund coming out guns blazing.  They have averaged over 3 goals a game at home.  Schalke can put it in the net as well.  2 units.

Hannover/Hamburg over 2 1/2 - 140.  2 units.  2 more teams that can fire away and give em up.  2 units.

Hoffenheim over 2 1/2 -130. 1 unit.  Hoffenheim needs the 3 points and Freiburg is awful on the road.  Like the chances for scoring and value

Argentina:

Boca Juniors +130.  1 unit.  Best team on the road wins 1-0.

EPL:

Man City/Liverpool over 2 1/2.  -110.  Too low considering the match results for both teams.  2 units.  Man City will be looking to hurt someone after that Napoli game.

Stoke City - 120.  1 unit.  Even though they have lost last two at home, they should put away one of the worst teams in the EPL.

Tottenham +100.  1 unit.  Spurs should win this handily and need to to keep up with City and United.

La Liga:  

Sporting/Levante over 2.  -130.  1 unit.  Teams can both score, Gijon gives them up on the road.

Brazil League

America MG over2 1/2 +100.  America scores big at home, Atletico obliges by giving them up when away.  1 unit.

Thats it for now.  Big card so hopefully I can get some wins.  Have a good thanksgiving if anyone is following along.
 
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Posted: #38
Adding:

CSKA Moscow - +150.  2 units.  These guys have cost me at LEAST 4 units by themselves.  But they still have Doumbia who leads the Russian league in scoring by a 8 goal margin (24-16), has scored in his last 5 games and he dropped 3 on these guys last time they played a month ago.  Also CSKA has owned Anzhi winning 4 in a row, home and aways in 2010 and 2011.


 
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Posted: #39
5-3 today is the good news.  That all 3 losses were German overs is the bad.  8 games tomorrow as well since Im:

Adding CSKA over 2 1/2.  1 unit.  C'mon Doumbia...


 
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Posted: #40
10-6 for the weekend. but only +.2 units.  Lost most of my 2 unit bets.

42-40-5 -5.1 units. overall 

.5 unit plays  0-2
1 unit plays   36-28-4
2 unit plays  6-10
3 unit plays 0-0-1

Sides  21-21
O/U 21-19-5

 
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Posted: #41
Independiente over 2. -120 1 unit.  Independiente in some shooting matches on the road lately and Santa Fe has scores in 12 out of 15 games this year.  

Napoli +140.  1 unit.  While I know Juventus is the better side, they are without .  The +190 odds for Juventus are tempting but Napoli just has their number.  Its probably a North-South Italian thing but Napoli comes to play against Juventus.  And Napoli just took down Man City in Champions at home so they'll be ready to go.

Juventus/Napoli over 2.5. +130 As I mentioned, Napoli goes into all out beast mode when playing each other, with Napoli torching Juventus for 3 goals each time in the last two games at home and playing to a 2-2 draw earlier this year.  1 unit.

More to come...


 
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Posted: #42
Europa League:

Hannover/Standard under 2.5 -120  1 unit.  Played to a 0-0 tie last time around.  Standard has given up only 1 goal in 4 games.

PSV/Legia over 2.5. -120  3 units.  My high unit bets are usually a kiss of death but Warsaw scores at home and PSV can drop 6 like no other.  Line seems low so like the value.

Rapid Bucharesti - 140.  1 unit.  Hapoel slightly worse, both teams not advancing, I'll go with the home team.  Rapid beat them in Israel 1-0 last time and Tel Aviv shot is goal load by tying PSV 3-3 in the last round.

AZ Alkmaar - 140.  3 units.  All Malmo does is give up goals.  With Malmo having nothing to play for and AZ needing to advance I expect Dutch Eredivisie leader AZ to pound them.

Metalist over 2.5. -110 1 unit.  Metalist can score and Austria will need to open its game up to advance to the next round.

Club Brugge +110. 1 unit.  Brugge may be on the road but Maribor flat out sucks.   Brugge needs the 3 points to stay in contention to advance as well.

Udinese under 2.5 -120.  1 unit.  Rennes is out and Udinese will play conservative to advance.

Atletico over 2.5.  1 unit.  Celtic has got to attack to try to get to the next round.  A tie with Atletico wont cut it as they travel to Udinese after this game.  Atletico can score and I expect a 2-1 Madrid win.

Lazio +120. 1 unit.  FC Vaslui is tied with Lazio in the standing but next week they get a much easier Zurich squad while Lazio hosts group leader Sporting CP.  Lazio would much rather get the win this week than test their fate next round.

Lazio/Vaslui under 2.5.  Knowing this I fully expect Vaslui to play 100% defense and for the draw.  1 unit.

Beskitas +120.  Nothing like bad blood between Israel and Turkey to make this a tense hard fought match.  Problem is Maccabi got reamed 5-1 the last time these teams played so the talent level isnt equal.  I expect a closer but same result this time around.  1 unit.

Beskitas over 2.5 -110.  Same reasons as above.  Thinking a 2-1 result.   1 unit.

FC Twente.  -120  1 unit.  FC Twente are the group leaders and I dont see them letting up here against Fulham.

FC Twente over 2.5.  +100.  Woah!  Extremely rare to get Twente under 3 goals and at great value here!  If Fulham can score like they did against Wisla, were looking good.  2 units.

Wisla/Odense over 2.5.  Both teams out of it but Odense won 3-1 last time around and Wisla is averaging almost 3 goals against per game.  1 unit.

RSC Anderlecht.  I get RSC has it all wrapped up but at +130 how can I resist taking the the first in the group playing at such odds?  3 units says this becomes target practice against AEK Athens who has zero group wins or draws.

RSC over 2.5 -110.  1 unit.  Again, target practice.

Carling Cup:

Man City/Arsenal over -130.  2 units.  I expect this to be high scoring.  2-1 at half?

Les see how this goes...

 
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Posted: #43
Napoli killed me today.  Up 3-1 late to only draw. 

On to more plays for the week!

Serie A:

Cagliari/Catania over 2 -130  1 unit.  7 out of the last 8 matches for Catania have had 2 goals or more while Cagliari is prone to give up more goals on the road.  

Bundesliga:

Monchengladbach +240  1 unit.  The Monch are a surprising 2nd (I didnt know who they were) in the Bundesliga and have Marco Reus who is 4th in the Bundesliga in scoring.  They've won 4 in a  row while Dortmund has won 3.  For a 9-2-3 team and a home game the value is defnitely there.  1 unit.

Ligue 1:

Montpellier -130 2 units.  Leading Ligue scorer Giroud versus losers of 3 in a row Lorient at home.  

EPL:

Liverpool +120. 1 unit Liverpool has been crushing fools on the road and have to be ready to take on lesser talent after they beat Chelsea 2-1.  Fulham has dropped its last two home games to superior teams so at plus money, seems like good value.

Arsenal  -180 1 unit.  Yeah, they aren't losing this game to Wigan or tying it for that matter.  Wigan has gotten pummeled by every decent team they've faced.  Van Persie 2 goals?

Arsenal over 3. +120 1 unit.  Hate the 3 line but I see a 4 or 5 goal total here.  Just easy to beat up on the relegation team.

 
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Posted: #44
Adding Tottenham -210  1 unit.  Biting on the juice.
 
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Posted: #45
Soccer betting lesson of the week:  Don't bet irrationally.  If you passed over the bet the first time, what makes it better the next?  Would have save 2 units.

5-4 Europa day.  Hopefully tomorrow will bring better results.
 
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Posted: #46
soccer has been on point UCLA...nice
 
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Posted: #47
Thanks!  Lets see how the rest goes.

Eredivisie lines finally up at my book.

AZ Alkmaar +130.  2 units.  AZ is the league leader and on a tear.  Heereveen isnt that great at home sporting 2 wins and 4 draws out of 7 games.  The wins and the draw were against the bottom half of the league.  The sole loss?  FC Twente who pounded them for 5 goals.  AZ is easily on score par with Twente but has better defense.

FC Groningen -170  2 units.  Lots of juice but Groningen is 5-1-1 at home with the loss to AZ and the push to FC Twente.  NEC, 15th out of 18 teams in the Eredivisie isnt of that caliber.

Excelsior +2.5 goals +140.  1 unit.  On the road to Ajax this would seem to be throwing money away.  However, out of 14 matches, Excelsior has lost by more than 2 goals only once and that was to league and goal leader PSV.  Ajax will win for the home crowd but hopefully not by 3.


 
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Posted: #48
Absolutely CRUSHED 2nd Europa day.  7-2.  Europa I was 12-6 overall this week (should have been 12-5 if I hadn't blindly bet Tottenham before game).  

So far this week 13-9 with 9 to go.  

55-49-5  -1.9 units. overall 

.5 unit plays  0-2
1 unit plays   47-34-4  
2 unit plays  6-12
3 unit plays 2-1-1

Sides  25-26
O/U 30-23-5
 
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Posted: #49
Adding Levante +3. -110 2 units. Just saw the line creep from 2.5.  Levante is 4th in the league and while my Barca loving friends have been giddy over these 5-0 and 4-0 results lately its been against bottom feeders Zaragoza and Mallorca.  Im betting that Levante who beat Real Madrid ealier this year gives them a match.
 
 
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Posted: #50
My Monch bet not looking good with leading scorer Reus officially out.  Hope for the best.
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