First, thanks for the nice words.
As per your question - about me posting more during the regular seasons of club play.....
I used to post a lot of soccer picks - but stopped for a number of reasons.In your first paragraph you accurately describe a very important part of being successful at sports gambling - finding the right prices. The biggest reason I stopped is because people who read my threads were unwillling or unable to get in to one of the books where you can actually make money longterm betting soccer.
It is foolish to think you can win longterm at soccer betting at Sportsbook.com (or any book like that). On the three way line, those books have such a high house hold that you cant win - lines like where all three choices are +160 are unbeatable longterm. So unless you are betting at pinnacle, matchbook, or betfair (or somewhere that offers similar options and prices) you cannot win.
So inevitably, I would put up my picks and the responses would start back "where are you getting those lines, my line is 40 cents worse" or "would you bet it at -XXX, thats the best I can get" (as you can see by all of the posts in my threads over the WC). The next, and worse step is that I am winning units, but they are losing units simply because of the vig. Then add on that they cant bet options that I can (like -1.5 etc) and I win a bet and they lose the bet, or they lay -300 to win instead of laying -110 on a spread and get pissed.
So I had no joy in posting soccer, only aggravation. People (for the most part) didnt understand the betting of the sport, and were just trying to kill off a saturday morning before NCAA football kicked off - and werent interested in learning or being disciplined to understand what actually makes money doing this.
I am on a great run in WC, but that is a very limited sample. If the WC was every month, I would rely on price shopping and selective wagering to make money longterm. Such is the club season - its a long grind - and if you are overpaying or making the wrong bets because you dont have options - you are going to lose.
Just my thoughts....
Van Thanks a lot for all your hard work, I learned a lot from you.
Unfortunately pinnacle and betfair do not let you open an account from US. Can you recommend any sportsbooks that accept USA residents? What is your opinion on Greek? Thank you
First of all, I do not know anything about soccer...BUT...this World Cup has given me a love for the game (even with those "horns" in the crowd ablowing).
Van, you seem to be one of the best handicappers at this stuff.....I want to know if you are leaning to the Dutch b/c of that future bet? BTY, good luck on that.
I am "going" for it a little bit tomorrow (of course, it is a money thing, and I understand that one should not put all their eggs in one or two baskets when betting sports), but Netherlands and Uruguay is the way to go...?.and maybe Brazil under 2.5, and Ghana over 1.5 (if I want to lay -180), also? What about a little on the draws....?
Anyway, GL to all
To the several posts about picking the Netherlands only because I have a future on them....
First of all the future is .5 unit, and it is also dependent upon winning another game AND Argentina winning two games. Im hardly even thinking about that at the moment, much less making a wager now in any kind of relation to it.
You guys must not have noticed that I bet against several futures I already had - the USA, Japan, S Korea etc. I look at every game and bet it for that game - as you have to - regardless of futures. I will bet against Argentina if I feel the spot is right to do so.
Thirdly, I have a total of 2 units on this game. Im not making a stand, Im not guaranteeing anything, it will equal an average size bet for me on one of the 50 some odd games so far.
What is interesting to me is that a pick on the Dutch is considered so crazy, so out in left field - that it must be attributed to something other than just handicapping the game. I wrote a writeup about the game earlier in the thread - I didnt just make that up as a narrative to support my future - I really feel that that is my best guess as to the analysis of this game.
I like the Netherlands, I like the price, and I like the bet.
Godin is very good - and at central defense plays an important role.
But Victorino has gotten minutes so far and has looked more than adequate.
I dont think this is any reason to change your bet....
I agree about the draw, especially for Argentina....
I feel like I carried my future this far for no gain as the Germany game might be the last game they are a fav in.
Very nice, but I hope you arent betting food money!!!
Betting any future exposes you to a big house hold.
Betting multiple futures when there can only be one winner compounds the problem exponentially.
Pick one and go with it - if you like Argentina, I would roll it over instead of betting the future.....
Im sure I will be around for the regular season...
First, thanks for the nice words.
As per your question - about me posting more during the regular seasons of club play.....
I used to post a lot of soccer picks - but stopped for a number of reasons.In your first paragraph you accurately describe a very important part of being successful at sports gambling - finding the right prices. The biggest reason I stopped is because people who read my threads were unwillling or unable to get in to one of the books where you can actually make money longterm betting soccer.
It is foolish to think you can win longterm at soccer betting at Sportsbook.com (or any book like that). On the three way line, those books have such a high house hold that you cant win - lines like where all three choices are +160 are unbeatable longterm. So unless you are betting at pinnacle, matchbook, or betfair (or somewhere that offers similar options and prices) you cannot win.
So inevitably, I would put up my picks and the responses would start back "where are you getting those lines, my line is 40 cents worse" or "would you bet it at -XXX, thats the best I can get" (as you can see by all of the posts in my threads over the WC). The next, and worse step is that I am winning units, but they are losing units simply because of the vig. Then add on that they cant bet options that I can (like -1.5 etc) and I win a bet and they lose the bet, or they lay -300 to win instead of laying -110 on a spread and get pissed.
So I had no joy in posting soccer, only aggravation. People (for the most part) didnt understand the betting of the sport, and were just trying to kill off a saturday morning before NCAA football kicked off - and werent interested in learning or being disciplined to understand what actually makes money doing this.
I am on a great run in WC, but that is a very limited sample. If the WC was every month, I would rely on price shopping and selective wagering to make money longterm. Such is the club season - its a long grind - and if you are overpaying or making the wrong bets because you dont have options - you are going to lose.
Just my thoughts....
Van Thanks a lot for all your hard work, I learned a lot from you.
Unfortunately pinnacle and betfair do not let you open an account from US. Can you recommend any sportsbooks that accept USA residents? What is your opinion on Greek? Thank you
#1 Matchbook.
The Greek is also a great choice, but with wider spreads.
Working on them.....
Coming in about an hour....
Saturday July 3
59. Argentina / Germany - Argentina to Advance -137 (5 units) - If this isnt proof that people betting the WC have very short memories, I dont know what is. Clearly this line is based on Germany's win against England, but I see that as a lot less weighty than most.
Germany comes in with what I see as 2 very good performances, and 2 not so good performances. In the Australia game and the England game they looked sharp - their passes were crisp - they had possession. But I dont put any credence in the England performance. They should have been down tied 2-2 at HT, and their late 2 goals came as a result of England pressing to get the equalizer. 3 of their 4 goals came as total defensive breakdowns, and bad play by the England GK. So in retrospect, Im not sure why there is so much love from the betting public based on that performance - we all knew England has played terrible and had no defense - and Germany did what they should have done - and the score ended up being more dramatic than what really happened.
Anyone who watched the Ghana game knows that Germany were lucky to win it, and if Ghana could finish at all they would have lost. There were numerous Ghanain chances at point blank that were just wasted, and England had chances like this too. I just dont see Argentina missing these.
There are some holes on the German side that will be exploited. Podolski continues to give the ball away even when unchallenged, it seems that unless he gets the ball in a position where he can put a first time strike on it he is useless. The defense is anchored by Lahm and Mertesacker, who both have been very good, but has question marks with Boateng and Friedrich. There can be no questions at the back because Argentina will be creative, crisp, and punish mistakes. Ozil has looked dangerous - he is truly the spark plug for the German offense, making darting runs and using his speed to create problems - he will be a key to any German success.
Everyone talks about the potent attack for Argentina - but I am most focused on their defense - where there is some good news in that Walter Samuel appears fit to play after recovering from an injury in the SK game. This is big, and just in time, as my biggest worry coming in to the tournament, and every game since has been Demichellis, who has given me no reason to reconsider my original worries about him. He has looked bad - there is no way around it - while the rest of the D has looked surprisingly good. I am hoping that Maradona has seen enough and makes a straight change with Sameul for Demichellis, and leaves otamendi, burdisso, and Heinze (who has been great) in as the defensive unit the rest of the way. Romero looked very nervy against Mexico, misjuding a couple of balls - one hitting the crossbar.
The midfield and strikers are up with the best in the world, and have shown nothing so far to think any differently. Argentina finishes their chances. They put the ball in the net. I expect Germany to mark Messi all ovver the field (probably with Friedrich) but that just opens up everyone else, and in this case everyone else is more than enough.
Germany and Argentina met in a friendly back in March in Munich, with very similar teams, and Argentina won 1-0. They also met in WC06 and Germany won on PK's.
I have a lot riding on this one between my future bet and game bet, but I was surprised to see this line under -200, and I cant pass it up. To me, it is a perfect betting storm - where Germany had a set of circumstances that made them look better than they really are - and therefore we get a gift line. Predicted final score Argentina 3 Germany 0.
60. Paraguay / Spain - Paraguay +1 -103 (1 unit) Paraguay to advance +385 (.5 unit) - Plain and simple, I think this line is way too high. I think people have forgotten that Paraguay finished tied for second in South American qualifying ahead of both Argentina and Uruguay. They obviously have issues scoring goals in 3 of their first 4 games - their strikers have been disappointing - Santa Cruz looking old and out of his league. But their defense has looked excellent, and I am willing to take a chance on an overinflated line that Paraguay can hold Spain. Yes, I am aware of the talent of Spain, and yes I acknowledge that Spain could win this game by multiple goals - and also that they probably will win this game. But the line only means that I have to have Paraguay win one out of 5 of these matchups, and I think they do better than that. Eeryone is on Spain, and maybe rightfully so, but give me those fat odds. Predicted final score Spain 2 - 1.
GL all
Game Picks
Current Record 26-13
Up 54.76 units, Down 24.73 units
TOTAL - Up +30.03 units
Futures...
Current Record 8-10
Up 20.8 Units, Down 17.4 units
Total Up +3.4 units
PENDING FUTURES:
17. Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18. Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
Friday July 2
57. Netherlands / Brazil - Netherlands +.5 +100 (1 unit), Netherlands to advance +195 (1 unit) - I tried, but I just cant get off of this one. The line is making me bet the Dutch, I cant say no. Apparantly, people betting the World Cup have very short memories as every line seems to reflect a teams latest performance - including all QF games and most before it.
Hollands defense has looked great until Slovakia. If Slovakia could finish (specifically Vittek), they coulda shoulda won or at least been in the hunt. They had some point blank opportunities where they had an unmarked guy standing in front of goal with the ball, only to do nothing with it. The goal at the end was actually not the worst of the Dutch defending - just an unlucky bounce of a deflected shot that went to the only person it could have to make an offensive move. So this scares me - but it goes against what the Dutch did in their first 3 games - and have been concentrating on in the leadup to the WC - which is strength and organization at the back. Their defense should be solid - and if so - their midfield can hang with anybody bar none. Robben is obviously the X factor - when he is out there the moves go through him and he seems to take control - and I think he is close to 100% at this point. I wish they would start Eljero Elia - he has been coming in late to games - but has control and speed that especially against Brazil might serve the Dutch very well.
Brazil comes in without Elano who is hurt, and maybe Felipe Melo too. Not that that is a huge problem for them. Im not going to attempt to make a case that Brazil is not great in almost every facet of the game - I just dont believe they are unbeatable. In 2006 at the WC, in the quarterfinals Brazil also looked unbeatable, and lost to France who had not looked great and were a bigger favorite than they are against the Dutch. Brazil will probably try to defend and counterattack - which might serve the Dutch well - if they can hold possession and stay organized and disciplined. Constant Brazilian breaks will eventually pay off - so the Dutch must use the possession efficiently and make their chances pay off.
I think this is a very even contest, and because they are paying me to do so - my money is on the Netherlands. Final predicted score Brazil 1 Netherlands 1 (after 90) and it goes to PK's.
58. Ghana / Uruguay - Uruguay -.5 +113 (90 minutes) (1 unit), Uruguay to advance -185 (1 unit) - At first glance, my thoughts were to bet Ghana at +170ish to advance. I just had the opinion that this was a much closer game than that, and that perhaps we have reached the point where Uruguay was getting a little too much love from the betting public. But what took me off of them is the injuries and suspensions.
Ghana loses for me, possibly their 3 best performers so far in the WC - Jonathan Mensah (just Jonathan on his shirt) who has clearly been their best defender (plays center back) - Ayew who has been their best danger up front - and Kevin Prince Boateng (who might still play, has a thigh injury that he was subbed for against US) who has been the man in charge and a physical presence all over the field. I cant get past that loss. Gyan is the other striker - and he has consistently failed to finish until the US game. He had tons of opportunities against Germany and squandered it time after time - add to that that he picked up a twisted ankle in practice yesterday and left with an ice pack early. Ghana only scored 2 goals in their first three games before the US game - both on penalties - and I dont see how that finishing gets better with their best 2 strikers in limbo.
Uruguay has looked great, until lots of the S Korea game. When they were tied (for 20 minutes total) they looked awesome, and when they were winning (for the other 70 minutes) they looked very beatable. Im not sure what that means, except maybe they dont have that killer instinct to finish off games professionally. Suarez is getting lots of love but I see the empty half of the glass too - he has missed tons of chances and loses possession a lot. I feel a little for Forlan as he has taken a backseat as he has become the playmaker up there - feeding the gluttoness Suarez. But there is little to criticize overall on Uruguay - their defense has been solid - goalkeeping solid - and up front they look dangerous. I do worry about their mindset if they get a lead with this kind of pressure, but not any more than I worry about Ghanas mindset if they get a goal down to panic.
I go against my initial lean and bet Uruguay here and pay what I feel is too much on the wager. Predicted final score Uruguay 2 Ghana 0
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