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Knockout Rounds thread - only 15 games to go......

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Askevi
bgrimm101
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Askevi
Askevi
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Joined: Jun, 2006
Posts: 1129
Posted: Jun. 30, 2010 - 8:42 PM ET #301

So if Bodog has the Netherlands Pick (+200) and an ML of +330, that pick bet is just a hedge against a draw, correct?  To win either bet the Dutch would have to win the game in 90 minutes.
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So if Bodog has the Netherlands Pick (+200) and an ML of +330, that pick bet is just a hedge against a draw, correct?  To win either bet the Dutch would have to win the game in 90 minutes.
 
bgrimm101
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Posted: Jun. 30, 2010 - 9:35 PM ET #302

I'll go with 3-2 holland after 90 minutes. Im liking Germany 4-2 and 2-0 Uruguay, GL
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I'll go with 3-2 holland after 90 minutes. Im liking Germany 4-2 and 2-0 Uruguay, GL
 
dopalicous
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Posted: Jun. 30, 2010 - 9:48 PM ET #303

Brazil 4- Ned 3.

Van thanks for the insight, I use matchbook think we could get some Futbol love in the forum this year?

we can police the forum and keep it professional.


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Brazil 4- Ned 3.

Van thanks for the insight, I use matchbook think we could get some Futbol love in the forum this year?

we can police the forum and keep it professional.


 
gamblingallday
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Posted: Jun. 30, 2010 - 10:55 PM ET #304

Brazil 4 Netherlands 2

I think some people bet parlays even when it plays at different times because it gives them a chance to hit big without betting big. A $100 player who is reluctant to bet $1000 has a hard time winning $1000 unless he bets a 4 team parlay. The bet forces the press.
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Brazil 4 Netherlands 2

I think some people bet parlays even when it plays at different times because it gives them a chance to hit big without betting big. A $100 player who is reluctant to bet $1000 has a hard time winning $1000 unless he bets a 4 team parlay. The bet forces the press.
 
Livan33
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Posted: Jun. 30, 2010 - 11:02 PM ET #305

Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:

Brazil 4 Netherlands 2

I think some people bet parlays even when it plays at different times because it gives them a chance to hit big without betting big. A $100 player who is reluctant to bet $1000 has a hard time winning $1000 unless he bets a 4 team parlay. The bet forces the press.

Van's point is that if you start with that $100 on the first team, you can roll that over each game and win more than $1000 in the end. The other advantage is that if you get to the last game and freak out and want to hedge (like 95% of the people here do) you're not even invested in that last game yet.
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Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:

Brazil 4 Netherlands 2

I think some people bet parlays even when it plays at different times because it gives them a chance to hit big without betting big. A $100 player who is reluctant to bet $1000 has a hard time winning $1000 unless he bets a 4 team parlay. The bet forces the press.

Van's point is that if you start with that $100 on the first team, you can roll that over each game and win more than $1000 in the end. The other advantage is that if you get to the last game and freak out and want to hedge (like 95% of the people here do) you're not even invested in that last game yet.
 
borisbe
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Posted: Jun. 30, 2010 - 11:04 PM ET #306

[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]

First, thanks for the nice words.

As per your question - about me posting more during the regular seasons of club play.....

I used to post a lot of soccer picks - but stopped for a number of reasons.In your first paragraph you accurately describe a very important part of being successful at sports gambling - finding the right prices.  The biggest reason I stopped is because people who read my threads were unwillling or unable to get in to one of the books where you can actually make money longterm betting soccer.

It is foolish to think you can win longterm at soccer betting at Sportsbook.com (or any book like that).  On the three way line, those books have such a high house hold that you cant win - lines like where all three choices are +160 are unbeatable longterm.  So unless you are betting at pinnacle, matchbook, or betfair (or somewhere that offers similar options and prices) you cannot win. 

So inevitably, I would put up my picks and the responses would start back "where are you getting those lines, my line is 40 cents worse" or "would you bet it at -XXX, thats the best I can get"  (as you can see by all of the posts in my threads over the WC).  The next, and worse step is that I am winning units, but they are losing units simply because of the vig.  Then add on that they cant bet options that I can (like -1.5 etc) and I win a bet and they lose the bet, or they lay -300 to win instead of laying -110 on a spread and get pissed.

So I had no joy in posting soccer, only aggravation.  People (for the most part) didnt understand the betting of the sport, and were just trying to kill off a saturday morning before NCAA football kicked off - and werent interested in learning or being disciplined to understand what actually makes money doing this.

I am on a great run in WC, but that is a very limited sample.  If the WC was every month, I would rely on price shopping and selective wagering to make money longterm.  Such is the club season - its a long grind - and if you are overpaying or making the wrong bets because you dont have options - you are going to lose.

Just my thoughts....

Van  Thanks a lot for all your hard work, I learned a lot from you.

Unfortunately pinnacle and betfair do not let you open an account from US. Can you recommend any sportsbooks that accept USA residents? What is your opinion on Greek? Thank you

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[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]

First, thanks for the nice words.

As per your question - about me posting more during the regular seasons of club play.....

I used to post a lot of soccer picks - but stopped for a number of reasons.In your first paragraph you accurately describe a very important part of being successful at sports gambling - finding the right prices.  The biggest reason I stopped is because people who read my threads were unwillling or unable to get in to one of the books where you can actually make money longterm betting soccer.

It is foolish to think you can win longterm at soccer betting at Sportsbook.com (or any book like that).  On the three way line, those books have such a high house hold that you cant win - lines like where all three choices are +160 are unbeatable longterm.  So unless you are betting at pinnacle, matchbook, or betfair (or somewhere that offers similar options and prices) you cannot win. 

So inevitably, I would put up my picks and the responses would start back "where are you getting those lines, my line is 40 cents worse" or "would you bet it at -XXX, thats the best I can get"  (as you can see by all of the posts in my threads over the WC).  The next, and worse step is that I am winning units, but they are losing units simply because of the vig.  Then add on that they cant bet options that I can (like -1.5 etc) and I win a bet and they lose the bet, or they lay -300 to win instead of laying -110 on a spread and get pissed.

So I had no joy in posting soccer, only aggravation.  People (for the most part) didnt understand the betting of the sport, and were just trying to kill off a saturday morning before NCAA football kicked off - and werent interested in learning or being disciplined to understand what actually makes money doing this.

I am on a great run in WC, but that is a very limited sample.  If the WC was every month, I would rely on price shopping and selective wagering to make money longterm.  Such is the club season - its a long grind - and if you are overpaying or making the wrong bets because you dont have options - you are going to lose.

Just my thoughts....

Van  Thanks a lot for all your hard work, I learned a lot from you.

Unfortunately pinnacle and betfair do not let you open an account from US. Can you recommend any sportsbooks that accept USA residents? What is your opinion on Greek? Thank you

 
rogers12
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Posted: Jun. 30, 2010 - 11:18 PM ET #307

brazil 4-0
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brazil 4-0
 
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Posted: Jun. 30, 2010 - 11:29 PM ET #308

I like Brasil and Uruguay to advance (really going out on a limb I know). While I can't really disagree that a Netherlands play may hold some value, I still don't think it's going to be a winner. I also feel like there's a little bit of "anchoring" involved with your decision. This is what someone above referred to as "sticking with your guns", but he didn't finish with "...despite seeing evidence to the contrary as we've gone along in the tournament". I don't know, again call me a square if you wish, but I've watched both teams' 4 games in their entirety and really been much more impressed with Brasil (obviously throw out the Portugal game as we saw how interested they were in that contest)...I feel like the Dutch, despite being known as a high-powered offense are really having difficulty finding the back of the net. The addition of Robben has surely helped, but I don't know if he's going to be enough in this one. Van Persie has looked horrendous imo and maybe he can find his touch here too, but as you stated this bet is certainly a lot more about what you see as "potential" than what we've witnessed thus far.

(Keep in mind, I'm a Dutch soccer fan and am rooting for them to win the whole thing so I'm far from biased here. I just don't see them getting it done and think that it is reflected in the price.)

What I am more concerned with though is this...what % chance would you give Uruguay or Ghana of beating EITHER Brasil or the Netherlands? For me it's extremely low, and I'm wondering if there's any sort of value with futures bets, based on the premise that this Brasil/Netherlands game is really the semi-final. Thanks in advance
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I like Brasil and Uruguay to advance (really going out on a limb I know). While I can't really disagree that a Netherlands play may hold some value, I still don't think it's going to be a winner. I also feel like there's a little bit of "anchoring" involved with your decision. This is what someone above referred to as "sticking with your guns", but he didn't finish with "...despite seeing evidence to the contrary as we've gone along in the tournament". I don't know, again call me a square if you wish, but I've watched both teams' 4 games in their entirety and really been much more impressed with Brasil (obviously throw out the Portugal game as we saw how interested they were in that contest)...I feel like the Dutch, despite being known as a high-powered offense are really having difficulty finding the back of the net. The addition of Robben has surely helped, but I don't know if he's going to be enough in this one. Van Persie has looked horrendous imo and maybe he can find his touch here too, but as you stated this bet is certainly a lot more about what you see as "potential" than what we've witnessed thus far.

(Keep in mind, I'm a Dutch soccer fan and am rooting for them to win the whole thing so I'm far from biased here. I just don't see them getting it done and think that it is reflected in the price.)

What I am more concerned with though is this...what % chance would you give Uruguay or Ghana of beating EITHER Brasil or the Netherlands? For me it's extremely low, and I'm wondering if there's any sort of value with futures bets, based on the premise that this Brasil/Netherlands game is really the semi-final. Thanks in advance
 
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Posted: Jun. 30, 2010 - 11:31 PM ET #309

Fwiw, I also think Ghana team total under 0.5 at +128 or even Uruguay to win and hold a clean sheet at +204 are great bets.


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Fwiw, I also think Ghana team total under 0.5 at +128 or even Uruguay to win and hold a clean sheet at +204 are great bets.


 
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 1:06 AM ET #310

First of all, I do not know anything about soccer...BUT...this World Cup has given me a love for the game (even with those "horns" in the crowd ablowing).

Van, you seem to be one of the best handicappers at this stuff.....I want to know if you are leaning to the Dutch b/c of that future bet? BTY, good luck on that.

I am "going" for it a little bit tomorrow (of course, it is a money thing, and I understand that one should not put all their eggs in one or two baskets when betting sports), but Netherlands and Uruguay is the way to go...?.and maybe Brazil under 2.5, and Ghana over 1.5 (if I want to lay -180), also? What about a little on the draws....?

Anyway, GL to all  

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First of all, I do not know anything about soccer...BUT...this World Cup has given me a love for the game (even with those "horns" in the crowd ablowing).

Van, you seem to be one of the best handicappers at this stuff.....I want to know if you are leaning to the Dutch b/c of that future bet? BTY, good luck on that.

I am "going" for it a little bit tomorrow (of course, it is a money thing, and I understand that one should not put all their eggs in one or two baskets when betting sports), but Netherlands and Uruguay is the way to go...?.and maybe Brazil under 2.5, and Ghana over 1.5 (if I want to lay -180), also? What about a little on the draws....?

Anyway, GL to all  

 
vanzack
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:44 AM ET #311

To the several posts about picking the Netherlands only because I have a future on them....

First of all the future is .5 unit, and it is also dependent upon winning another game AND Argentina winning two games.  Im hardly even thinking about that at the moment, much less making a wager now in any kind of relation to it.

You guys must not have noticed that I bet against several futures I already had - the USA, Japan, S Korea etc.  I look at every game and bet it for that game - as you have to - regardless of futures.  I will bet against Argentina if I feel the spot is right to do so.

Thirdly, I have a total of 2 units on this game.  Im not making a stand, Im not guaranteeing anything, it will equal an average size bet for me on one of the 50 some odd games so far.

What is interesting to me is that a pick on the Dutch is considered so crazy, so out in left field - that it must be attributed to something other than just handicapping the game.  I wrote a writeup about the game earlier in the thread - I didnt just make that up as a narrative to support my future - I really feel that that is my best guess as to the analysis of this game.

I like the Netherlands, I like the price, and I like the bet.

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To the several posts about picking the Netherlands only because I have a future on them....

First of all the future is .5 unit, and it is also dependent upon winning another game AND Argentina winning two games.  Im hardly even thinking about that at the moment, much less making a wager now in any kind of relation to it.

You guys must not have noticed that I bet against several futures I already had - the USA, Japan, S Korea etc.  I look at every game and bet it for that game - as you have to - regardless of futures.  I will bet against Argentina if I feel the spot is right to do so.

Thirdly, I have a total of 2 units on this game.  Im not making a stand, Im not guaranteeing anything, it will equal an average size bet for me on one of the 50 some odd games so far.

What is interesting to me is that a pick on the Dutch is considered so crazy, so out in left field - that it must be attributed to something other than just handicapping the game.  I wrote a writeup about the game earlier in the thread - I didnt just make that up as a narrative to support my future - I really feel that that is my best guess as to the analysis of this game.

I like the Netherlands, I like the price, and I like the bet.

 
vanzack
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:46 AM ET #312

Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:

Van - How important is defender Diego Godin to Uruguay?  He's out and being replaced by Mauricio Victorino.  Thx.

Also, Nice info on Ghana suspended players.  Gyan out would make it larger play for me, will wait 'til game day to see if he's playing.

Godin is very good - and at central defense plays an important role.

But Victorino has gotten minutes so far and has looked more than adequate.

I dont think this is any reason to change your bet....

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Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:

Van - How important is defender Diego Godin to Uruguay?  He's out and being replaced by Mauricio Victorino.  Thx.

Also, Nice info on Ghana suspended players.  Gyan out would make it larger play for me, will wait 'til game day to see if he's playing.

Godin is very good - and at central defense plays an important role.

But Victorino has gotten minutes so far and has looked more than adequate.

I dont think this is any reason to change your bet....

 
vanzack
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:47 AM ET #313

Quote Originally Posted by SnotBoogy:

well i take it back you didn't wait till the goal dot com previews came out

Phew.

I was really worried.

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Quote Originally Posted by SnotBoogy:

well i take it back you didn't wait till the goal dot com previews came out

Phew.

I was really worried.

 
vanzack
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:48 AM ET #314

Quote Originally Posted by SnotBoogy:

well i take it back you didn't wait till the goal dot com previews came out

Ever think maybe they are copying me?

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Quote Originally Posted by SnotBoogy:

well i take it back you didn't wait till the goal dot com previews came out

Ever think maybe they are copying me?

 
vanzack
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:49 AM ET #315

Quote Originally Posted by ghostkid:

I see Uruguay and Spain advancing
the other two games could go either way, and honestly, probably one or both end in PKs
It's too bad the way the draw worked out
certainly Argentina-Germany
and Brazil-Netherlands are worthy FINAL matches
Paraguay has done well, but that Group they were in SUCKED

I agree about the draw, especially for Argentina....

I feel like I carried my future this far for no gain as the Germany game might be the last game they are a fav in.

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Quote Originally Posted by ghostkid:

I see Uruguay and Spain advancing
the other two games could go either way, and honestly, probably one or both end in PKs
It's too bad the way the draw worked out
certainly Argentina-Germany
and Brazil-Netherlands are worthy FINAL matches
Paraguay has done well, but that Group they were in SUCKED

I agree about the draw, especially for Argentina....

I feel like I carried my future this far for no gain as the Germany game might be the last game they are a fav in.

 
vanzack
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:49 AM ET #316

Quote Originally Posted by ghostkid:

Others have already shown thanks here, but I want to throw my two cents in.

Van, the success you have had over the last month is certainly more than a lucky streak.

This streak is based on discipline, hard work, patience, research, money management, and a tremendous feel for the sport.  It's a prime example of good things happening to good people. 

You have earned every penny and conducted yourself with much class and integrity.  We all know this game isn't easy.

I look forward to reading your writeups, and the money I have made following your threads has helped put extra food on my family's table.

Mad respect and good luck the rest of the way.

Very nice, but I hope you arent betting food money!!!

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Quote Originally Posted by ghostkid:

Others have already shown thanks here, but I want to throw my two cents in.

Van, the success you have had over the last month is certainly more than a lucky streak.

This streak is based on discipline, hard work, patience, research, money management, and a tremendous feel for the sport.  It's a prime example of good things happening to good people. 

You have earned every penny and conducted yourself with much class and integrity.  We all know this game isn't easy.

I look forward to reading your writeups, and the money I have made following your threads has helped put extra food on my family's table.

Mad respect and good luck the rest of the way.

Very nice, but I hope you arent betting food money!!!

 
vanzack
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:51 AM ET #317

Quote Originally Posted by ghostkid:

Here is what my local has for futures:

TO WIN WORLD CUP 2010
Brazil +200
Spain +250
Argentina +400
Germany +700
Holland +750
Uruguay +1500
Ghana +4500
Paraguay +4500

Van, I read your above comments about playing Argentina game by game and getting better odds.  Got it and I agree.

Any of these other futures worth a tickle at this stage?  I'm thinking Holland and Germany.  Each of those two teams facing the toughest match in the quarters, with only Spain to take them down after that.

Just thinking things over......

Betting any future exposes you to a big house hold.

Betting multiple futures when there can only be one winner compounds the problem exponentially.

Pick one and go with it - if you like Argentina, I would roll it over instead of betting the future.....

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Quote Originally Posted by ghostkid:

Here is what my local has for futures:

TO WIN WORLD CUP 2010
Brazil +200
Spain +250
Argentina +400
Germany +700
Holland +750
Uruguay +1500
Ghana +4500
Paraguay +4500

Van, I read your above comments about playing Argentina game by game and getting better odds.  Got it and I agree.

Any of these other futures worth a tickle at this stage?  I'm thinking Holland and Germany.  Each of those two teams facing the toughest match in the quarters, with only Spain to take them down after that.

Just thinking things over......

Betting any future exposes you to a big house hold.

Betting multiple futures when there can only be one winner compounds the problem exponentially.

Pick one and go with it - if you like Argentina, I would roll it over instead of betting the future.....

 
Livan33
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:51 AM ET #318

Is it sad that every time Van's thread is bumped I get excited because I think it might be his writeups for the next set of games?

Actually, I can answer that....it is pretty sad.
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Is it sad that every time Van's thread is bumped I get excited because I think it might be his writeups for the next set of games?

Actually, I can answer that....it is pretty sad.
 
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:52 AM ET #319

Quote Originally Posted by dopalicous:

Brazil 4- Ned 3.

Van thanks for the insight, I use matchbook think we could get some Futbol love in the forum this year?

we can police the forum and keep it professional.


Im sure I will be around for the regular season...

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Quote Originally Posted by dopalicous:

Brazil 4- Ned 3.

Van thanks for the insight, I use matchbook think we could get some Futbol love in the forum this year?

we can police the forum and keep it professional.


Im sure I will be around for the regular season...

 
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:53 AM ET #320

Quote Originally Posted by borisbe:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

First, thanks for the nice words.

As per your question - about me posting more during the regular seasons of club play.....

I used to post a lot of soccer picks - but stopped for a number of reasons.In your first paragraph you accurately describe a very important part of being successful at sports gambling - finding the right prices.  The biggest reason I stopped is because people who read my threads were unwillling or unable to get in to one of the books where you can actually make money longterm betting soccer.

It is foolish to think you can win longterm at soccer betting at Sportsbook.com (or any book like that).  On the three way line, those books have such a high house hold that you cant win - lines like where all three choices are +160 are unbeatable longterm.  So unless you are betting at pinnacle, matchbook, or betfair (or somewhere that offers similar options and prices) you cannot win. 

So inevitably, I would put up my picks and the responses would start back "where are you getting those lines, my line is 40 cents worse" or "would you bet it at -XXX, thats the best I can get"  (as you can see by all of the posts in my threads over the WC).  The next, and worse step is that I am winning units, but they are losing units simply because of the vig.  Then add on that they cant bet options that I can (like -1.5 etc) and I win a bet and they lose the bet, or they lay -300 to win instead of laying -110 on a spread and get pissed.

So I had no joy in posting soccer, only aggravation.  People (for the most part) didnt understand the betting of the sport, and were just trying to kill off a saturday morning before NCAA football kicked off - and werent interested in learning or being disciplined to understand what actually makes money doing this.

I am on a great run in WC, but that is a very limited sample.  If the WC was every month, I would rely on price shopping and selective wagering to make money longterm.  Such is the club season - its a long grind - and if you are overpaying or making the wrong bets because you dont have options - you are going to lose.

Just my thoughts....

Van  Thanks a lot for all your hard work, I learned a lot from you.

Unfortunately pinnacle and betfair do not let you open an account from US. Can you recommend any sportsbooks that accept USA residents? What is your opinion on Greek? Thank you

#1 Matchbook. 

The Greek is also a great choice, but with wider spreads.

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Quote Originally Posted by borisbe:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

First, thanks for the nice words.

As per your question - about me posting more during the regular seasons of club play.....

I used to post a lot of soccer picks - but stopped for a number of reasons.In your first paragraph you accurately describe a very important part of being successful at sports gambling - finding the right prices.  The biggest reason I stopped is because people who read my threads were unwillling or unable to get in to one of the books where you can actually make money longterm betting soccer.

It is foolish to think you can win longterm at soccer betting at Sportsbook.com (or any book like that).  On the three way line, those books have such a high house hold that you cant win - lines like where all three choices are +160 are unbeatable longterm.  So unless you are betting at pinnacle, matchbook, or betfair (or somewhere that offers similar options and prices) you cannot win. 

So inevitably, I would put up my picks and the responses would start back "where are you getting those lines, my line is 40 cents worse" or "would you bet it at -XXX, thats the best I can get"  (as you can see by all of the posts in my threads over the WC).  The next, and worse step is that I am winning units, but they are losing units simply because of the vig.  Then add on that they cant bet options that I can (like -1.5 etc) and I win a bet and they lose the bet, or they lay -300 to win instead of laying -110 on a spread and get pissed.

So I had no joy in posting soccer, only aggravation.  People (for the most part) didnt understand the betting of the sport, and were just trying to kill off a saturday morning before NCAA football kicked off - and werent interested in learning or being disciplined to understand what actually makes money doing this.

I am on a great run in WC, but that is a very limited sample.  If the WC was every month, I would rely on price shopping and selective wagering to make money longterm.  Such is the club season - its a long grind - and if you are overpaying or making the wrong bets because you dont have options - you are going to lose.

Just my thoughts....

Van  Thanks a lot for all your hard work, I learned a lot from you.

Unfortunately pinnacle and betfair do not let you open an account from US. Can you recommend any sportsbooks that accept USA residents? What is your opinion on Greek? Thank you

#1 Matchbook. 

The Greek is also a great choice, but with wider spreads.

 
vanzack
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 9:54 AM ET #321

Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:

Is it sad that every time Van's thread is bumped I get excited because I think it might be his writeups for the next set of games?

Actually, I can answer that....it is pretty sad.

Working on them.....

Coming in about an hour....

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Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:

Is it sad that every time Van's thread is bumped I get excited because I think it might be his writeups for the next set of games?

Actually, I can answer that....it is pretty sad.

Working on them.....

Coming in about an hour....

 
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Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 10:06 AM ET #322

I like the Netherlands, I like the price, and I like the bet.

i guess that's we all doubters want to hear.

Good luck Van.
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I like the Netherlands, I like the price, and I like the bet.

i guess that's we all doubters want to hear.

Good luck Van.
 
vanzack
vanzack
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Posts: 60040
Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 10:49 AM ET #323

Saturday July 3

59.  Argentina / Germany - Argentina to Advance -137 (5 units) - If this isnt proof that people betting the WC have very short memories, I dont know what is.  Clearly this line is based on Germany's win against England, but I see that as a lot less weighty than most.

Germany comes in with what I see as 2 very good performances, and 2 not so good performances.  In the Australia game and the England game they looked sharp - their passes were crisp - they had possession.  But I dont put any credence in the England performance.  They should have been down tied 2-2 at HT, and their late 2 goals came as a result of England pressing to get the equalizer.  3 of their 4 goals came as total defensive breakdowns, and bad play by the England GK.  So in retrospect, Im not sure why there is so much love from the betting public based on that performance - we all knew England has played terrible and had no defense - and Germany did what they should have done - and the score ended up being more dramatic than what really happened.

Anyone who watched the Ghana game knows that Germany were lucky to win it, and if Ghana could finish at all they would have lost.  There were numerous Ghanain chances at point blank that were just wasted, and England had chances like this too.  I just dont see Argentina missing these.

There are some holes on the German side that will be exploited.  Podolski continues to give the ball away even when unchallenged, it seems that unless he gets the ball in a position where he can put a first time strike on it he is useless.  The defense is anchored by Lahm and Mertesacker, who both have been very good, but has question marks with Boateng and Friedrich.  There can be no questions at the back because Argentina will be creative, crisp, and punish mistakes.  Ozil has looked dangerous - he is truly the spark plug for the German offense, making darting runs and using his speed to create problems - he will be a key to any German success.

Everyone talks about the potent attack for Argentina - but I am most focused on their defense - where there is some good news in that Walter Samuel appears fit to play after recovering from an injury in the SK game.  This is big, and just in time, as my biggest worry coming in to the tournament, and every game since has been Demichellis, who has given me no reason to reconsider my original worries about him.  He has looked bad - there is no way around it - while the rest of the D has looked surprisingly good.  I am hoping that Maradona has seen enough and makes a straight change with Sameul for Demichellis, and leaves otamendi, burdisso, and Heinze (who has been great) in as the defensive unit the rest of the way.  Romero looked very nervy against Mexico, misjuding a couple of balls - one hitting the crossbar.

The midfield and strikers are up with the best in the world, and have shown nothing so far to think any differently.  Argentina finishes their chances.  They put the ball in the net.  I expect Germany to mark Messi all ovver the field (probably with Friedrich) but that just opens up everyone else, and in this case everyone else is more than enough.

Germany  and Argentina met in a friendly back in March in Munich, with very similar teams, and Argentina won 1-0.    They also met in WC06 and Germany won on PK's.

I have a lot riding on this one between my future bet and game bet, but I was surprised to see this line under -200, and I cant pass it up.  To me, it is a perfect betting storm - where Germany had a set of circumstances that made them look better than they really are - and therefore we get a gift line.  Predicted final score Argentina 3 Germany 0.

60.  Paraguay / Spain - Paraguay +1 -103 (1 unit) Paraguay to advance +385 (.5 unit) - Plain and simple, I think this line is way too high.  I think people have forgotten that Paraguay finished tied for second in South American qualifying ahead of both Argentina and Uruguay.  They obviously have issues scoring goals in 3 of their first 4 games - their strikers have been disappointing - Santa Cruz looking old and out of his league.  But their defense has looked excellent, and I am willing to take a chance on an overinflated line that Paraguay can hold Spain.  Yes, I am aware of the talent of Spain, and yes I acknowledge that Spain could win this game by multiple goals - and also that they probably will win this game.  But the line only means that I have to have Paraguay win one out of 5 of these matchups, and I think they do better than that.  Eeryone is on Spain, and maybe rightfully so, but give me those fat odds.  Predicted final score Spain 2 - 1.

GL all

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Saturday July 3

59.  Argentina / Germany - Argentina to Advance -137 (5 units) - If this isnt proof that people betting the WC have very short memories, I dont know what is.  Clearly this line is based on Germany's win against England, but I see that as a lot less weighty than most.

Germany comes in with what I see as 2 very good performances, and 2 not so good performances.  In the Australia game and the England game they looked sharp - their passes were crisp - they had possession.  But I dont put any credence in the England performance.  They should have been down tied 2-2 at HT, and their late 2 goals came as a result of England pressing to get the equalizer.  3 of their 4 goals came as total defensive breakdowns, and bad play by the England GK.  So in retrospect, Im not sure why there is so much love from the betting public based on that performance - we all knew England has played terrible and had no defense - and Germany did what they should have done - and the score ended up being more dramatic than what really happened.

Anyone who watched the Ghana game knows that Germany were lucky to win it, and if Ghana could finish at all they would have lost.  There were numerous Ghanain chances at point blank that were just wasted, and England had chances like this too.  I just dont see Argentina missing these.

There are some holes on the German side that will be exploited.  Podolski continues to give the ball away even when unchallenged, it seems that unless he gets the ball in a position where he can put a first time strike on it he is useless.  The defense is anchored by Lahm and Mertesacker, who both have been very good, but has question marks with Boateng and Friedrich.  There can be no questions at the back because Argentina will be creative, crisp, and punish mistakes.  Ozil has looked dangerous - he is truly the spark plug for the German offense, making darting runs and using his speed to create problems - he will be a key to any German success.

Everyone talks about the potent attack for Argentina - but I am most focused on their defense - where there is some good news in that Walter Samuel appears fit to play after recovering from an injury in the SK game.  This is big, and just in time, as my biggest worry coming in to the tournament, and every game since has been Demichellis, who has given me no reason to reconsider my original worries about him.  He has looked bad - there is no way around it - while the rest of the D has looked surprisingly good.  I am hoping that Maradona has seen enough and makes a straight change with Sameul for Demichellis, and leaves otamendi, burdisso, and Heinze (who has been great) in as the defensive unit the rest of the way.  Romero looked very nervy against Mexico, misjuding a couple of balls - one hitting the crossbar.

The midfield and strikers are up with the best in the world, and have shown nothing so far to think any differently.  Argentina finishes their chances.  They put the ball in the net.  I expect Germany to mark Messi all ovver the field (probably with Friedrich) but that just opens up everyone else, and in this case everyone else is more than enough.

Germany  and Argentina met in a friendly back in March in Munich, with very similar teams, and Argentina won 1-0.    They also met in WC06 and Germany won on PK's.

I have a lot riding on this one between my future bet and game bet, but I was surprised to see this line under -200, and I cant pass it up.  To me, it is a perfect betting storm - where Germany had a set of circumstances that made them look better than they really are - and therefore we get a gift line.  Predicted final score Argentina 3 Germany 0.

60.  Paraguay / Spain - Paraguay +1 -103 (1 unit) Paraguay to advance +385 (.5 unit) - Plain and simple, I think this line is way too high.  I think people have forgotten that Paraguay finished tied for second in South American qualifying ahead of both Argentina and Uruguay.  They obviously have issues scoring goals in 3 of their first 4 games - their strikers have been disappointing - Santa Cruz looking old and out of his league.  But their defense has looked excellent, and I am willing to take a chance on an overinflated line that Paraguay can hold Spain.  Yes, I am aware of the talent of Spain, and yes I acknowledge that Spain could win this game by multiple goals - and also that they probably will win this game.  But the line only means that I have to have Paraguay win one out of 5 of these matchups, and I think they do better than that.  Eeryone is on Spain, and maybe rightfully so, but give me those fat odds.  Predicted final score Spain 2 - 1.

GL all

 
vanzack
vanzack
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 60040
Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 10:49 AM ET #324

Game Picks

Current Record 26-13
Up 54.76 units, Down 24.73 units
TOTAL - Up +30.03 units

Futures... 

Current Record  8-10
Up 20.8 Units, Down 17.4 units
Total Up +3.4 units

PENDING FUTURES:
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)

Friday July 2

57.  Netherlands / Brazil - Netherlands +.5 +100 (1 unit), Netherlands to advance +195 (1 unit) - I tried, but I just cant get off of this one.  The line is making me bet the Dutch, I cant say no.  Apparantly, people betting the World Cup have very short memories as every line seems to reflect a teams latest performance - including all QF games and most before it.

Hollands defense has looked great until Slovakia.  If Slovakia could finish (specifically Vittek), they coulda shoulda won or at least been in the hunt.  They had some point blank opportunities where they had an unmarked guy standing in front of goal with the ball, only to do nothing with it.  The goal at the end was actually not the worst of the Dutch defending - just an unlucky bounce of a deflected shot that went to the only person it could have to make an offensive move.  So this scares me - but it goes against what the Dutch did in their first 3 games - and have been concentrating on in the leadup to the WC - which is strength and organization at the back.  Their defense should be solid - and if so - their midfield can hang with anybody bar none.  Robben is obviously the X factor - when he is out there the moves go through him and he seems to take control - and I think he is close to 100% at this point.  I wish they would start Eljero Elia - he has been coming in late to games - but has control and speed that especially against Brazil might serve the Dutch very well.

Brazil comes in without Elano who is hurt, and maybe Felipe Melo too.  Not that that is a huge problem for them.  Im not going to attempt to make a case that Brazil is not great in almost every facet of the game - I just dont believe they are unbeatable.  In 2006 at the WC, in the quarterfinals Brazil also looked unbeatable, and lost to France who had not looked great and were a bigger favorite than they are against the Dutch.  Brazil will probably try to defend and counterattack - which might serve the Dutch well - if they can hold possession and stay organized and disciplined.  Constant Brazilian breaks will eventually pay off - so the Dutch must use the possession efficiently and make their chances pay off.

I think this is a very even contest, and because they are paying me to do so - my money is on the Netherlands.  Final predicted score Brazil 1 Netherlands 1 (after 90) and it goes to PK's.

58.  Ghana / Uruguay - Uruguay -.5 +113 (90 minutes) (1 unit), Uruguay to advance -185 (1 unit) - At first glance, my thoughts were to bet Ghana at +170ish to advance.  I just had the opinion that this was a much closer game than that, and that perhaps we have reached the point where Uruguay was getting a little too much love from the betting public.  But what took me off of them is the injuries and suspensions. 

Ghana loses for me, possibly their 3 best performers so far in the WC - Jonathan Mensah (just Jonathan on his shirt) who has clearly been their best defender (plays center back) - Ayew who has been their best danger up front - and Kevin Prince Boateng (who might still play, has a thigh injury that he was subbed for against US) who has been the man in charge and a physical presence all over the field.  I cant get past that loss.  Gyan is the other striker - and he has consistently failed to finish until the US game.  He had tons of opportunities against Germany and squandered it time after time - add to that that he picked up a twisted ankle in practice yesterday and left with an ice pack early.  Ghana only scored 2 goals in their first three games before the US game - both on penalties - and I dont see how that finishing gets better with their best 2 strikers in limbo.

Uruguay has looked great, until lots of the S Korea game.  When they were tied (for 20 minutes total) they looked awesome, and when they were winning (for the other 70 minutes) they looked very beatable.   Im not sure what that means, except maybe they dont have that killer instinct to finish off games professionally.  Suarez is getting lots of love but I see the empty half of the glass too - he has missed tons of chances and loses possession a lot.  I feel a little for Forlan as he has taken a backseat as he has become the playmaker up there - feeding the gluttoness Suarez.  But there is little to criticize overall on Uruguay - their defense has been solid - goalkeeping solid - and up front they look dangerous.  I do worry about their mindset if they get a lead with this kind of pressure, but not any more than I worry about Ghanas mindset if they get a goal down to panic.

I go against my initial lean and bet Uruguay here and pay what I feel is too much on the wager.  Predicted final score Uruguay 2 Ghana 0

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Game Picks

Current Record 26-13
Up 54.76 units, Down 24.73 units
TOTAL - Up +30.03 units

Futures... 

Current Record  8-10
Up 20.8 Units, Down 17.4 units
Total Up +3.4 units

PENDING FUTURES:
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)

Friday July 2

57.  Netherlands / Brazil - Netherlands +.5 +100 (1 unit), Netherlands to advance +195 (1 unit) - I tried, but I just cant get off of this one.  The line is making me bet the Dutch, I cant say no.  Apparantly, people betting the World Cup have very short memories as every line seems to reflect a teams latest performance - including all QF games and most before it.

Hollands defense has looked great until Slovakia.  If Slovakia could finish (specifically Vittek), they coulda shoulda won or at least been in the hunt.  They had some point blank opportunities where they had an unmarked guy standing in front of goal with the ball, only to do nothing with it.  The goal at the end was actually not the worst of the Dutch defending - just an unlucky bounce of a deflected shot that went to the only person it could have to make an offensive move.  So this scares me - but it goes against what the Dutch did in their first 3 games - and have been concentrating on in the leadup to the WC - which is strength and organization at the back.  Their defense should be solid - and if so - their midfield can hang with anybody bar none.  Robben is obviously the X factor - when he is out there the moves go through him and he seems to take control - and I think he is close to 100% at this point.  I wish they would start Eljero Elia - he has been coming in late to games - but has control and speed that especially against Brazil might serve the Dutch very well.

Brazil comes in without Elano who is hurt, and maybe Felipe Melo too.  Not that that is a huge problem for them.  Im not going to attempt to make a case that Brazil is not great in almost every facet of the game - I just dont believe they are unbeatable.  In 2006 at the WC, in the quarterfinals Brazil also looked unbeatable, and lost to France who had not looked great and were a bigger favorite than they are against the Dutch.  Brazil will probably try to defend and counterattack - which might serve the Dutch well - if they can hold possession and stay organized and disciplined.  Constant Brazilian breaks will eventually pay off - so the Dutch must use the possession efficiently and make their chances pay off.

I think this is a very even contest, and because they are paying me to do so - my money is on the Netherlands.  Final predicted score Brazil 1 Netherlands 1 (after 90) and it goes to PK's.

58.  Ghana / Uruguay - Uruguay -.5 +113 (90 minutes) (1 unit), Uruguay to advance -185 (1 unit) - At first glance, my thoughts were to bet Ghana at +170ish to advance.  I just had the opinion that this was a much closer game than that, and that perhaps we have reached the point where Uruguay was getting a little too much love from the betting public.  But what took me off of them is the injuries and suspensions. 

Ghana loses for me, possibly their 3 best performers so far in the WC - Jonathan Mensah (just Jonathan on his shirt) who has clearly been their best defender (plays center back) - Ayew who has been their best danger up front - and Kevin Prince Boateng (who might still play, has a thigh injury that he was subbed for against US) who has been the man in charge and a physical presence all over the field.  I cant get past that loss.  Gyan is the other striker - and he has consistently failed to finish until the US game.  He had tons of opportunities against Germany and squandered it time after time - add to that that he picked up a twisted ankle in practice yesterday and left with an ice pack early.  Ghana only scored 2 goals in their first three games before the US game - both on penalties - and I dont see how that finishing gets better with their best 2 strikers in limbo.

Uruguay has looked great, until lots of the S Korea game.  When they were tied (for 20 minutes total) they looked awesome, and when they were winning (for the other 70 minutes) they looked very beatable.   Im not sure what that means, except maybe they dont have that killer instinct to finish off games professionally.  Suarez is getting lots of love but I see the empty half of the glass too - he has missed tons of chances and loses possession a lot.  I feel a little for Forlan as he has taken a backseat as he has become the playmaker up there - feeding the gluttoness Suarez.  But there is little to criticize overall on Uruguay - their defense has been solid - goalkeeping solid - and up front they look dangerous.  I do worry about their mindset if they get a lead with this kind of pressure, but not any more than I worry about Ghanas mindset if they get a goal down to panic.

I go against my initial lean and bet Uruguay here and pay what I feel is too much on the wager.  Predicted final score Uruguay 2 Ghana 0

 
 
WiseGuys-R-Us
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Posts: 1008
Posted: Jul. 1, 2010 - 11:16 AM ET #325

Like them all excluding the Brazil/Holland game as we previously discussed.

I do have one question, and if you can find time out of your day to answer that would be greatly appreciated.

I see you playing -.5 (Half a goal) what is the benefit to that? I know the benefit to a +.5 that means you win with a tie at the end of 90 minutes but the -.5 on the Uruguay game is (+108) while the ML is (+112) Isn't the game still scored in the first 90 minutes and nothing further with that line? So why not just play the ML and increase the odds slightly?

Thanks again mate and good luck this weekend with the WC
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Like them all excluding the Brazil/Holland game as we previously discussed.

I do have one question, and if you can find time out of your day to answer that would be greatly appreciated.

I see you playing -.5 (Half a goal) what is the benefit to that? I know the benefit to a +.5 that means you win with a tie at the end of 90 minutes but the -.5 on the Uruguay game is (+108) while the ML is (+112) Isn't the game still scored in the first 90 minutes and nothing further with that line? So why not just play the ML and increase the odds slightly?

Thanks again mate and good luck this weekend with the WC
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