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Knockout Rounds thread - only 15 games to go......

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Posted: #276

World Cup 2006

ARG  2   Mexico   1 (A.E.T)

ARG 1  Germany   1 (2-4 PK)

Argentina is definately stronger than last world cup.

I would love to see a Brazil vs Argentina final.

 
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Posted: #277

Brazil 3-0

 
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Posted: #278
By the way, thank you for that donation Vanzack. Very generous & thoughtful of you.  
 
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Posted: #279

Nobody wants to discuss the picks on Friday?

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Posted: #280
van i think it may not be the best decision to have your money on the netherlands. Their defense has looked soft in the center at times, and i just don't think they have enough to successfully gameplan against Brazil's counter. Also, in terms of the Netherlands being better suited possessing the ball all game, these Brazilian players are all used to going up against players of Robben/Van Persie etc's caliber. Netherlands has been playing in second gear the whole tournament and hasn't had to face a team with half the quality Brazil possesses. It's very tough to go from playing average opponents to playing the odds on favorite in a few days. If you watched the Slovakia game, the Netherlands were actually outplayed after Robben's first goal, and this doesn't bode well for them. If Stoch and Vittek can get 5 good looks against that defense, how many do you think Fabiano/Kaka/Robinho can get on the deadliest counter in the world today?
 
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Posted: #281

Quote Originally Posted by raems:

van i think it may not be the best decision to have your money on the netherlands. Their defense has looked soft in the center at times, and i just don't think they have enough to successfully gameplan against Brazil's counter. Also, in terms of the Netherlands being better suited possessing the ball all game, these Brazilian players are all used to going up against players of Robben/Van Persie etc's caliber. Netherlands has been playing in second gear the whole tournament and hasn't had to face a team with half the quality Brazil possesses. It's very tough to go from playing average opponents to playing the odds on favorite in a few days. If you watched the Slovakia game, the Netherlands were actually outplayed after Robben's first goal, and this doesn't bode well for them. If Stoch and Vittek can get 5 good looks against that defense, how many do you think Fabiano/Kaka/Robinho can get on the deadliest counter in the world today?

I cant really argue any of this.

You left out a very important part of the equation:  The price.

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Posted: #282
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Nobody wants to discuss the picks on Friday?

 

My heart is with Netherlands and I may just take a poke at them in a big parlay after all is said and done.  I'd LOVE to see them win 2-1 in normal time.  Ohhh man, that'd be great!

As for the other game, I LOVE Uruguay and think you may even have the score spot-on at 2-0. 

 
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Posted: #283
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Nobody wants to discuss the picks on Friday?

I'm just happy that you chose the same score as I did

In all seriousness, I think your analysis is bang-on, as usual. I'm looking for a low-scoring Uruguay win. I wouldn't be shocked to see 1-0. I'm hopeful that they have learned that when they get the lead they need to continue attacking. However, I'm not sure that will actually be the case. It was pretty amazing to watch the difference in their play against S. Korea when they had the lead as opposed to when they were tied.

 
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Posted: #284
van- I am glad that you think that IF Holland advance, that its at least in ET. I agree, anything can happen. Very even match up.

I will not have too much on this game, since one of my pre-tourney futures is in play this game. Holland elimination stage +550, 1/2 Unit to win 2.75. I had this as the match up and I still like my chances. I do think, that the Over line says they tink this game is close since U is juiced w/ these two teams playing. I did say to Source though, if you like Holland to win in reg, you might as well play the over.

The one thing that scares me away from Holland, is that I don't think they have really played an offense yet. So, they go from Cameroon and Japan, to Brazil

I think this game is a draw @ HF, Brazil 1-0 by 60, then a late counter to make it 2-0 in the last 10min.

On the other game, LOVE "Da U"
 
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Posted: #285
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I cant really argue any of this.

You left out a very important part of the equation:  The price.



Van, i respect and appreciate the insight you have given on each match very much.

I see that you are hoping for the Netherlands to hold Brazil to only 1 score in regulation. I have not seen any reason why this would occur, and simply put, I think that Brazil scores at least 2 goals within the 90 minutes and the Netherlands will finish with 1 goal.

I am going to ask you this question; all things equal, does the price (not cheap, but not over the top) of Brazil to advance at -200 to -210 really matter?
 
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Posted: #286

Quote Originally Posted by JZA:



Van, i respect and appreciate the insight you have given on each match very much.

I see that you are hoping for the Netherlands to hold Brazil to only 1 score in regulation. I have not seen any reason why this would occur, and simply put, I think that Brazil scores at least 2 goals within the 90 minutes and the Netherlands will finish with 1 goal.

I am going to ask you this question; all things equal, does the price (not cheap, but not over the top) of Brazil to advance at -200 to -210 really matter?

The price always matters.

2-1 means they win this 67 out of 100 times.  I dont see it being that high.

One thing is for sure - there is a lot of love out there for Brazil.....

I might be dead wrong about it, but I think the Dutch will play even with them.

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Posted: #287
Quote Originally Posted by TheSource2Win:

 

My heart is with Netherlands and I may just take a poke at them in a big parlay after all is said and done.  I'd LOVE to see them win 2-1 in normal time.  Ohhh man, that'd be great!

As for the other game, I LOVE Uruguay and think you may even have the score spot-on at 2-0. 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #288
Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:

I'm just happy that you chose the same score as I did

In all seriousness, I think your analysis is bang-on, as usual. I'm looking for a low-scoring Uruguay win. I wouldn't be shocked to see 1-0. I'm hopeful that they have learned that when they get the lead they need to continue attacking. However, I'm not sure that will actually be the case. It was pretty amazing to watch the difference in their play against S. Korea when they had the lead as opposed to when they were tied.

I hope they keep attacking if they score too, because Ghana will concede again.

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Posted: #289

Quote Originally Posted by bracks:

van- I am glad that you think that IF Holland advance, that its at least in ET. I agree, anything can happen. Very even match up.

I will not have too much on this game, since one of my pre-tourney futures is in play this game. Holland elimination stage +550, 1/2 Unit to win 2.75. I had this as the match up and I still like my chances. I do think, that the Over line says they tink this game is close since U is juiced w/ these two teams playing. I did say to Source though, if you like Holland to win in reg, you might as well play the over.

The one thing that scares me away from Holland, is that I don't think they have really played an offense yet. So, they go from Cameroon and Japan, to Brazil

I think this game is a draw @ HF, Brazil 1-0 by 60, then a late counter to make it 2-0 in the last 10min.

On the other game, LOVE "Da U"

Cant argue with much of this - any Holland bet is more based on potential than their previous opponents - that is for sure.

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Posted: #290
Van - How important is defender Diego Godin to Uruguay?  He's out and being replaced by Mauricio Victorino.  Thx.

Also, Nice info on Ghana suspended players.  Gyan out would make it larger play for me, will wait 'til game day to see if he's playing.

 
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Posted: #291
Van, just a thought here. Maybe the fact that you had your future bet on Holland to reach the final game some what influenced your thinking a bit on this game vs Brazil? Granted that they may come up with a draw at the end of regulation, but the odds are tilted toward Brazil to win the game; thus reflected on the juices...Still early to recap this
 
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Posted: #292
well i take it back you didn't wait till the goal dot com previews came out
 
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Posted: #293

My money is on Ghana in their match against Uraguay.

Small parlay with Ghana & Brazil.

Bol to all gents.

 
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Posted: #294
i like the uruguay pick

im hoping for an argentina-uruguay final game


and i'll say 4-1 brazil for shits and giggles
 
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Posted: #295
Van, do you find it wise to just bet the draw in both games as my only bets of the day?  One hits, I am in the plus.  Seems too simple, but I like my odds. 
 
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Posted: #296
I see Uruguay and Spain advancing
the other two games could go either way, and honestly, probably one or both end in PKs
It's too bad the way the draw worked out
certainly Argentina-Germany
and Brazil-Netherlands are worthy FINAL matches
Paraguay has done well, but that Group they were in SUCKED
 
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Posted: #297

Quote Originally Posted by CMo256:

Van, do you find it wise to just bet the draw in both games as my only bets of the day?  One hits, I am in the plus.  Seems too simple, but I like my odds. 

My 2 cents.... (not that it was asked for ) but... I actually feel there's a better shot at the DRAW in the Brazil/Netherlands game than the Urugay/Ghana game. 

 
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Posted: #298
Others have already shown thanks here, but I want to throw my two cents in.

Van, the success you have had over the last month is certainly more than a lucky streak.

This streak is based on discipline, hard work, patience, research, money management, and a tremendous feel for the sport.  It's a prime example of good things happening to good people. 

You have earned every penny and conducted yourself with much class and integrity.  We all know this game isn't easy.

I look forward to reading your writeups, and the money I have made following your threads has helped put extra food on my family's table.

Mad respect and good luck the rest of the way.

 
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Posted: #299
Here is what my local has for futures:

TO WIN WORLD CUP 2010
Brazil +200
Spain +250
Argentina +400
Germany +700
Holland +750
Uruguay +1500
Ghana +4500
Paraguay +4500

Van, I read your above comments about playing Argentina game by game and getting better odds.  Got it and I agree.

Any of these other futures worth a tickle at this stage?  I'm thinking Holland and Germany.  Each of those two teams facing the toughest match in the quarters, with only Spain to take them down after that.

Just thinking things over......

 
 
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Posted: #300
Quote Originally Posted by Sunbeam:

Van, just a thought here. Maybe the fact that you had your future bet on Holland to reach the final game some what influenced your thinking a bit on this game vs Brazil? Granted that they may come up with a draw at the end of regulation, but the odds are tilted toward Brazil to win the game; thus reflected on the juices...Still early to recap this


This was what i was going to ask as well Van... i can't help but notice that you stuck with your guns for this one. (Considering your Futures on NED) You do have ultimate confidence in your (initial) picks even against what seems like a Brazil team. That alone tells me you know what you are doing...

A few questions (and a few doubts):

We've seen the likes of Spain manhandle Portugal the other day, and we know you picked Portugal, why not flip on this one? Why do you still trust your pick despite the fact this Holland team is going up against a very potent Brazil squad? Could this be a case of looking (too much) and over-analyzing the LINE and PRICE and not really the actual match-up itself?
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