Knockout Rounds thread - only 15 games to go......

Im sorry i forgot to also mention this too.You say

60.  Paraguay / Spain - Paraguay +1 -103 (1 unit) Paraguay to advance +385 (.5 unit) - Plain and simple, I think this line is way too high.  I think people have forgotten that Paraguay finished tied for second in South American qualifying ahead of both Argentina and Uruguay.  They obviously have issues scoring goals in 3 of their first 4 games - their strikers have been disappointing - Santa Cruz looking old and out of his league.  But their defense has looked excellent, and I am willing to take a chance on an overinflated line that Paraguay can hold Spain.  Yes, I am aware of the talent of Spain, and yes I acknowledge that Spain could win this game by multiple goals - and also that they probably will win this game.  But the line only means that I have to have Paraguay win one out of 5 of these matchups, and I think they do better than that.  Eeryone is on Spain, and maybe rightfully so, but give me those fat odds.  Predicted final score Spain 2 - 1.

well if you look at it that way as paraguay finished tied for 2nd in qualifying why are you putting so much stock on argentina which was in danger to NOT QUALIFY AT ALL for the world cup? Im sorry im not trying to start an argument but im just a bit confused.

Quote Originally Posted by P4P:

I'm going to guess you didn't respond to me because you didn't like me attacking your Netherlands pick (although it wasn't really an attack, more my thoughts on the game but nevertheless...), but on the chance that you just didn't see this:

"What I am more concerned with though is this...what % chance would you give Uruguay or Ghana of beating EITHER Brasil or the Netherlands? For me it's extremely low, and I'm wondering if there's any sort of value with futures bets, based on the premise that this Brasil/Netherlands game is really the semi-final. Thanks in advance"

Thanks again

I did respond to the Netherlands comments in a post above - I wrote it to the several similar posts asking the same thing.

I dont see any futures bets right now that have any value - you are paying too much house hold to make it worthwhile.  But Im sure I havent looked at every angle possible.  And I do think Uruguay could beat either of these teams on the right day in the right circumstances.

Bingo.

Because I think that is the most likely score - but I think there is a better chance it is a draw or paraguay win than a 2+ goal game.

Argentina first goal was offside.   If it wasnt, they would have scored a different way.  The second goal was a giveaway, if it wasnt they would have scored a different way.  Argentina was clearly the better team.  Can you say that you saw a way that Mexico wins that game that day?  Cant really say the same about the Germans.

You cant punish Argentina for not playing the best caliber teams so far.  Im not basing my analysis on their opposition (same as the Dutch), Im basing it on my analysis of their potential.  I wouldnt say Mexico is a slouch either - would you bet Mexico against England?

I was pointing out that Paraguay played in an 18 game series and hung with the likes of Brazil, Uruguay, Chile, and Argentina.  They are of similar caliber, if not just a step behind.  Once again, a point more about Paraguays ability - not Argentinas struggles in qualifying.

It is just one factor of many that goes in to evaluating talent - it is not the only one.

Matchbook is an exchange.  Go to their site and read how it works.  There are no limits.  You can get down as much as you want at the right price.

I bet on Obama to win the election, the week before when all of the "Joe the Plumber" stuff was happening - and got most of it at + money.  It is the single biggest wager on any event in my life. 

Not a penny.....

Argentina beats the Netherlands in the final with Paraguay 3rd, my prediction since June 11.

As a side note I did have the Swiss in place of Spain as I feel Spain is super overrated, same thing for Portugal. Also I thought Chile had a shot to advance on Brasil in PKs but that didn't happen either. So take what I say with a grain of salt.

GLTA

Willy..take the Japenese kid...that dude can stuff 4 dogs in his mouth if he puts his mind to it....I met him in Miami about 3 yrs ago...believe me he IS FRIGGIN WHACKED!!

For the Neth to reach the final, they have to beat Brazil and then the winner of Uruguay / Ghana.