Game Picks
Current Record 26-13
Up 54.76 units, Down 24.73 units
TOTAL - Up +30.03 units
Futures...
Current Record 8-10
Up 20.8 Units, Down 17.4 units
Total Up +3.4 units
PENDING FUTURES:
17. Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18. Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
Friday July 2
57. Netherlands / Brazil - Netherlands +.5 +100 (1 unit), Netherlands to advance +195 (1 unit) - I tried, but I just cant get off of this one. The line is making me bet the Dutch, I cant say no. Apparantly, people betting the World Cup have very short memories as every line seems to reflect a teams latest performance - including all QF games and most before it.
Hollands defense has looked great until Slovakia. If Slovakia could finish (specifically Vittek), they coulda shoulda won or at least been in the hunt. They had some point blank opportunities where they had an unmarked guy standing in front of goal with the ball, only to do nothing with it. The goal at the end was actually not the worst of the Dutch defending - just an unlucky bounce of a deflected shot that went to the only person it could have to make an offensive move. So this scares me - but it goes against what the Dutch did in their first 3 games - and have been concentrating on in the leadup to the WC - which is strength and organization at the back. Their defense should be solid - and if so - their midfield can hang with anybody bar none. Robben is obviously the X factor - when he is out there the moves go through him and he seems to take control - and I think he is close to 100% at this point. I wish they would start Eljero Elia - he has been coming in late to games - but has control and speed that especially against Brazil might serve the Dutch very well.
Brazil comes in without Elano who is hurt, and maybe Felipe Melo too. Not that that is a huge problem for them. Im not going to attempt to make a case that Brazil is not great in almost every facet of the game - I just dont believe they are unbeatable. In 2006 at the WC, in the quarterfinals Brazil also looked unbeatable, and lost to France who had not looked great and were a bigger favorite than they are against the Dutch. Brazil will probably try to defend and counterattack - which might serve the Dutch well - if they can hold possession and stay organized and disciplined. Constant Brazilian breaks will eventually pay off - so the Dutch must use the possession efficiently and make their chances pay off.
I think this is a very even contest, and because they are paying me to do so - my money is on the Netherlands. Final predicted score Brazil 1 Netherlands 1 (after 90) and it goes to PK's.
58. Ghana / Uruguay - Uruguay -.5 +113 (90 minutes) (1 unit), Uruguay to advance -185 (1 unit) - At first glance, my thoughts were to bet Ghana at +170ish to advance. I just had the opinion that this was a much closer game than that, and that perhaps we have reached the point where Uruguay was getting a little too much love from the betting public. But what took me off of them is the injuries and suspensions.
Ghana loses for me, possibly their 3 best performers so far in the WC - Jonathan Mensah (just Jonathan on his shirt) who has clearly been their best defender (plays center back) - Ayew who has been their best danger up front - and Kevin Prince Boateng (who might still play, has a thigh injury that he was subbed for against US) who has been the man in charge and a physical presence all over the field. I cant get past that loss. Gyan is the other striker - and he has consistently failed to finish until the US game. He had tons of opportunities against Germany and squandered it time after time - add to that that he picked up a twisted ankle in practice yesterday and left with an ice pack early. Ghana only scored 2 goals in their first three games before the US game - both on penalties - and I dont see how that finishing gets better with their best 2 strikers in limbo.
Uruguay has looked great, until lots of the S Korea game. When they were tied (for 20 minutes total) they looked awesome, and when they were winning (for the other 70 minutes) they looked very beatable. Im not sure what that means, except maybe they dont have that killer instinct to finish off games professionally. Suarez is getting lots of love but I see the empty half of the glass too - he has missed tons of chances and loses possession a lot. I feel a little for Forlan as he has taken a backseat as he has become the playmaker up there - feeding the gluttoness Suarez. But there is little to criticize overall on Uruguay - their defense has been solid - goalkeeping solid - and up front they look dangerous. I do worry about their mindset if they get a lead with this kind of pressure, but not any more than I worry about Ghanas mindset if they get a goal down to panic.
I go against my initial lean and bet Uruguay here and pay what I feel is too much on the wager. Predicted final score Uruguay 2 Ghana 0
GL all
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