Euro 2020 / 2021 Preview and Game Picks thread.....

Nice work van, BOL the rest of the way. 

Sweden with a Master Class on how to play Spain.  They survived today - even though they were lucky to do so - this is the way you beat Spain.  

Spain better work on their PKs.  I bet we see them in a PK shootout in a 0-0 match in the knockouts.

Sweden just got lucky and Spain does not have the killer instinct. I don't think they can win it all the way they are playing today.

Thanks for all the analysis and write ups...I remember your World Cup posts and those were great too.

Something I noticed about Spain....Adama Traore was on the bench but didn’t play.  That guy is very difficult to defend and maybe he could have broke the deadlock had he subbed on.  Maybe he sees some action next game?  I would have put him on but I’m also not the manager of Spain haha...

Updated Results:

+1.45 units (11.4 units up, 9.95 units down)

1. Turkey / Italy (Rome) – Turkey +.5 +168 (2 to win 3.36) LOSS
2. Wales / Switzerland (Baku) – Switzerland -.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) HALF LOSS
3. Denmark / Finland (Copenhagen) – Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) WIN
4. Belgium / Russia (St Petersburg) – Belgium .75 -110 (3.3 to win 3) WIN exact score
5. England / Croatia (London) – England -135 (1.35 to win 1) WIN
6. Austria / N Macedonia (Bucharest) – Under 2 +110 (2 units to win 2.2) LOSS
7. Ukraine / Netherlands (Amsterdam) – Under 2.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) / under 2.5 (1 to win 1.1) LOSS
8. Scotland / Czech Republic (Glascow) - Scotland PK -115 (2.3 to win 2 units) LOSS
9. Poland / Slovakia (St Petersburg) - Slovakia +.5 +120 (2 units to win 2.4) WIN
10. Spain / Sweden (Seville) - Under 2.5 -106 (2.12 to win 2) WIN

Monday:

11.  Portugal / Hungary (Budapest) - PASS This match is being played at home for Hungary - and unlike all of the other matches you have seen - there will be a full house (68k) of fans onhand.  So far, the home field advantage has largely been a non-factor with crowds unable to really affect matches-  but this might be the first match where we see a difference. 

Portugal is leaps and bounds better than Hungary talentwise.  This side is undoubtedly better than the side that won it all back in 2016.  Joao Cancelo being ruled out of the tournament a couple of days ago due to covid is a big loss - Nelson Semedo should take his place at Right Back but in the Portuguese system the fullbacks are critical roles - and losing one of the best is a big blow no matter how you slice it. 

Hungary haven't lost a match since September.  Portugal have only lost one match in a year also (to France).  Hungary beat both Croatia and Wales at home in qualifying for this tournament.  They should come out disciplined - and they know how to defend and counter.

The importance of this game can't be understated.  Portugal need a result here - but will a draw satisfy them?  I have to think they will think this is a must win game, and I'm not willing to bet on them not being overcome by the pressure and possible loose tactics if the game remains tied or they are behind.  Hungary would be thrilled with any result in all three of their matches, so the pressure is off.

With the line currently at -225, I wouldnt bet a side and at 2.5 would lean under - but not enough to bet.  PASS.  Final score Portugal 1-0

France / Germany (Munich) - France PK -110 (2 units) - Based on talent and form, France is the play here.  The game is in Munich but the attendance is capped at 14,500, and the French will have a part of that.  Pretty simple here....  Better side, better form - and I can get them not to lose at basically even money?  No brainer.  Wouldn't be surprised with a typical first round close to the vest draw....  Especially if Portugal don't win in the early game - but I will take my chances with France not to lose.  Final score France 2-1

GL ALL

Dont forget...  Berg had an open net from 5 yards that he whiffed and a ball ricocheted in the first half off the inside of their post.  Might look like Spain had all the chances - but not the case.

I was thinking the exact same thing at HT.  He is not prototypical Spain.  He is a linebacker who is the best dribbler in the world - and can get in there and take on multiple defenders to set things up.  He is also a big physical presence.

I would love to see him - but I think Luis Enrique is in love with the system he knows from his playing days.  And Traore is not that.

It sure would be fun to see him though.

Van, I just want to thank you again for everything you do in this soccer forum...I know it's a lot of work.

I love following these threads during the big tournaments.

Thanks.  Very nice.

Good to see you.

BOL today. 

Nice start & GL the rest of the way Van  Been 6-7Y great to see you're still at it! Where is cokebooger? 

Heartbreak for Hungary there

Good to see you also.  Cokebooger.... 

That second goal might mean a lot by the end of the group stage.

Joachim Low should be required to wear a mask regardless of pandemic status

Couple of thoughts....

To my memory - Germany did not have a single shot on goal that required LLoris to save.
Pavard was out cold.  If you watch isolated camera on him in the last 30 minutes it was quite apparent he shouldnt have been out there.
Mbappe's speed will destroy someone later in this tournament.  Probably Hungary.
Typical France.
Kante is the best player in the world.

Keep it rolling 

Updated Results:

+3.45 units (13.4 units up, 9.95 units down)

1. Turkey / Italy (Rome) – Turkey +.5 +168 (2 to win 3.36) LOSS
2. Wales / Switzerland (Baku) – Switzerland -.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) HALF LOSS
3. Denmark / Finland (Copenhagen) – Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) WIN
4. Belgium / Russia (St Petersburg) – Belgium .75 -110 (3.3 to win 3) WIN exact score
5. England / Croatia (London) – England -135 (1.35 to win 1) WIN
6. Austria / N Macedonia (Bucharest) – Under 2 +110 (2 units to win 2.2) LOSS
7. Ukraine / Netherlands (Amsterdam) – Under 2.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) / under 2.5 (1 to win 1.1) LOSS
8. Scotland / Czech Republic (Glascow) - Scotland PK -115 (2.3 to win 2 units) LOSS
9. Poland / Slovakia (St Petersburg) - Slovakia +.5 +120 (2 units to win 2.4) WIN
10. Spain / Sweden (Seville) - Under 2.5 -106 (2.12 to win 2) WIN
11. Portugal / Hungary (Budapest) - PASS 
12. France / Germany (Munich) - France PK -110 (2 units) WIN

Wednesday:

13.  Russia / Finland (St Petersburg) - Russia -138 (2.07 units to win 1.5) - Finlands win in game 1 was a total fluke.  No need to even go over what happened there.  But the fact that they won and are sitting on 3 points means that they will know that a draw in one of their final 2 matches will mean they very likely go through to the knockouts.  So what do I expect Finland to do?  Exactly what they did against Denmark.  Defend deep and hope to strike on a Pukki counter attack or a set piece.  This is all I expect from the Fins tomorrow - and would be shocked with anything different.

Russia is not a very good team.  They are aging, slow, and mistake prone - but all of that being said they really are in a different class from Finland.  They were beaten because of Lukaku's strength and speed - and to a large part a horrific gameplan in defending the wingacks of Belgium - and it cost them.  They are a side that will only win with possession and slow build up - and against Belgium they had the ball only about a third of the time and had noplace to go.  But Finland will let Russia possess the ball, and this is where the Russians should be able to capitalize and score at least one or two goals.  Russia win 2-0 in an ugly match.

14. Turkey / Wales (Baku) - Turkey -.25 +110 (4 units to win 4.4) - Going big here with my pre tournament thoughts on these two sides.  Turkey just absolutely laid an egg in game 1 against Italy.  Terrible gameplan combined with really the worst goalkeeping performance of the tournament (directly responsible for 2 of the 3 goals) made for a disasterous opener for the Turks.  Will they lie down and die or will they come out with a vengeance?  I have to think the latter.  There is no way Turkey comes out to exclusively defend against Wales.  It is not just the defensive posture that hurt Turkey against Italy - it was when they regained possession - they were so deep in their own half and Italy was willing to high team press that they hardly ever got past midfield.  This cant and wont be the case against Wales.

Turkey has a talented midfield that has speed and plays in small fast triangles that lead to excellent strikers. This was missing in game 1.  Wales on the other hand got a very fortunate draw and were dominated against the Swiss, but know that their next match is against Italy and will be thinking they HAVE to win against Turkey in order to advance.  This is great for Turkey.  Wales having to open up is against their core values, and will lead to their destruction.  Turkey win 3-1 on my biggest play so far this tournament.

15. Italy / Switzerland (Rome) - Draw +300 (.5 unit to win 1.5) and 0-0 +800 (.1 unit to win .8) Italy looked so good in game 1, that I think they are a little bit overpriced here given the situation.  If Turkey win the first match, the Swiss, Italians, and Turks will all be on 3 points entering this game which means a draw here basically puts both teams in to the knockouts.  Just because that is the case doesn't mean it will happen, but I think this is a good place to take a shot on my first draw bet of the tournament at these long odds.  I am hoping to see a very low scoring pass fest where both teams "rest in possession" and gear up for other matches to come.  The odds are just too short on the Italians here to bet them.  0-0

THURSDAY:

17. Denmark / Belgium (Copenhagen) - Denmark+.5 -118 (3.54 to win 3) - Putting this one up early because I think this line won't be around too long. I think the stars all align on this one.  The Eriksen thing appears to have a somewhat happy ending, the Danes are pissed at what happened with having to finish with Finland, and they are a very competent side who doesn't need special circumstances to compete with the Belgians at home. I expect emotions to be on another level on Thursday.

The Belgians are great and looked great against a poor Russia performance, but the Danes should double up CBs against Lukaku and take him out and dare the others to beat them.  It looks like DeBruyne may be back in time - which is certainly scary - but I think you might see Martinez switch to a 4-4-2 and relieve one of his aging CBs from playing on Thursday.  He should know that a draw is a good result here - as do the Danes.  The Danes path to the knockouts is clear....  Any result here against Belgium and win (at home) against Russia in game 3 and they are through.  Final score 1-1

GL ALL

BOL VZ - good to see you posting on Covers still.  Class Act all the way. 

I am not a big Football/soccer guy, but I kind of agree with Denmark.  Very wierd in game development with ericksen (glad the guy is OK and recovering BTW), then have to go back onto the field to finish the match.  I like them to compete like hell Thursday, with a bit of a chip on shoulder.

GL to All!!! 

Line moves....

Russia got 20 cents worse, Turkey got 20 cents better

@dyamarik

 Good to see you.

HT Russia Finland thoughts...

How bad is Russia?  Jeez.  So mistake prone.  And just terrible and sloppy.
Russia better sub off Barinov (#8) at HT.  He is one foul away from being sent off, and that one foul is certainly coming.
Hopefully Fernandes is OK - losing him makes a bad team even worse.