Edge Score - Tracking Thread

I’ve had a thread here where I’ve been fading favorites, and it’s been going pretty well overall. That said, I haven’t really had the time to properly explain my picks or keep track of results consistently.

So I’m gonna try something different and run a little experiment, basically automate the whole process using the Kelly Criterion.

f* = (bp - q) / b

Step 1: Pull in as much data as possible
Step 2: Check implied probabilities
Step 3: Calculate EV
Step 4: Run full Kelly
Step 5: Step 4 × Step 3

I’ve got two slightly different versions of this, and I’ll use this thread to track everything for now.

Calculating your own probability v implied ….

Do you use your own metrics?

11th May - Soccer

Version 1 (Fully Automatic)

Confidence
Napoli Win ML @ 1.57 | Confidence 7

Value Bet Rankings
Girona -0.25 AH @ 2.65 | Edge Value 4.90



Version 2:

Confidence
Napoli ML @ 1.57 | Confidence: 9
Napoli vs Bologna - Under 2.5 @ 1.95 | Confidence: 8
Napoli -1.0 @ 1.97 | Confidence 7
Tottenham vs Leeds - BTTS (Yes) @ 1.79 | Confidence 8
Tottenham vs Leeds - Over 2.5 @ 1.84 | Confidence 8
Leeds X2 @ 2.15 | Confidence: 9
Millwall ML @ 1.73 | Confidence: 9
Millwall vs Hull - Under 2.5 @ 1.80 | Confidence 8
Millwall -0.25 @ 1.50 | Confidence 8
Vallecano vs Girona - Under 2.5 @ 1.95 | Confidence 8


Fractional Kelly Confidence (0-20)
Napoli ML @ 1.57 | Confidence: 11
Leeds X2 @ 2.15 | Confidence: 17


Positive EV
Leeds X2 @ 2.15 = +40%
Vallecano -0.25 = +29%
Vallecano vs Girona - Under 2.5 = +27%
Napoli vs Bologna - Under 2.5 = +25%
Tottenham vs Leeds -BTTS (Yes) = + 22%

Interesting. Curious how this shakes out.

11th May - MLB

Version 1 (Fully Automatic)

Confidence
NY Yankees ML @ 1.70 | Confidence 7
Tampa Bay Rays ML @ 2.10 | Confidence 7 
Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays - F5 Under 4.5 @ 1.60 | Confidence 8
Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays - Blue Jays Under 3.5 @ 1.95  | Confidence 7 
Texas Rangers ML @ 1.80 | Confidence 7 
Seattle Mariners ML @ 1.74 | Confidence 7 
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros - F5 Under 4.5 @ 1.94 | Confidence 7
LA Dodgers ML @ 1.56 | Confidence 7


Value Bet Rankings
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros - F5 Under 4.5 @ 1.94 | Edge Value 5.26
Tampa Bay Rays ML @ 2.10 | Edge Value 4.78
Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays - Blue Jays Under 3.5 @ 1.95  | Edge Value 3.56




Version 2:

Confidence
Angels vs Guardians | Full Game Under 7.5 Runs @ 1.98 | Confidence 8
Angels vs Guardians | F5 Guardians ML @ 2.72 | Confidence 7
Angels vs Guardians | Guardians ML @ 1.62 | Confidence 7
Yankees vs Orioles | F5 Yankees ML @ 1.92 | Confidence 8
Rays vs Blue Jays | F5 Under 3.5 Runs @ 2.05 | Confidence 9
Rays vs Blue Jays | Under 7 Runs @ 2.02 | Confidence 8
Diamondbacks vs Rangers | F5 Diamondbacks ML @ 2.12 | Confidence 7
Diamondbacks vs Rangers | Diamondbacks ML @ 2.14 | Confidence 7
Diamondbacks vs Rangers | Full Game Under 7.5 Runs @ 1.92 | Confidence 7
Mariners vs Astros | F5 Over 4.5 Runs @ 1.94 | Confidence 7
Giants vs Dodgers | F5 Over 5 Runs @ 1.91 | Confidence 8
Giants vs Dodgers | F5 Giants ML @ 2.79 | Confidence 7

Fractional Kelly Confidence (0-20)
Rays vs Blue Jays | F5 Under 3.5 Runs @ 2.05 | Confidence 17


Positive EV
Giants vs Dodgers | F5 Giants ML @ 2.79 = 62%
Angels vs Guardians | Guardians ML @ 1.62 = 52%
Mariners vs Astros | F5 Astros @ 2.58 = 37%
Rays vs Blue Jays | F5 Under 3.5 Runs @ 2.05 = 35%
Giants vs Dodgers | F5 Over 5 Runs @ 1.91 = 24%
Diamondbacks vs Rangers | F5 Diamondbacks ML @ 2.12 = 23%
Angels vs Guardians | Full Game Under 7.5 Runs @ 1.98 = 23%
Yankees vs Orioles | F5 Yankees ML @ 1.92 = 21%

11th May - NBA

Version 1 (Fully Automatic)

Confidence
Cavaliers ML @ 1.64 | Confidence 7
CLE Cavaliers vs DET Pistons - Under 214.5 @ 1.79  | Confidence 7


Value Bet Rankings
LAL vs OKC - LeBron James Over 22.5 Pts @ 1.90 | Edge Value 5.6
LAL vs OKC - Over 214.5 @ 1.92 | Edge Value 5.5



Version 2:

Confidence
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons | Detroit Pistons +4.5 Spread @ 1.78 | Confidence: 8
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons | Game Totals Under 210.5 @ Odds: 2.14 | Confidence: 9
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons | Cade Cunningham Over 8.5 Assists @ 1.73 | Confidence: 8
Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder| Oklahoma City Thunder -10 Spread @ 1.65 | Confidence: 9
Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder | LAL Team Total Under 103.5 @ 1.64 | Confidence: 8
Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder | Ajay Mitchell Over 16.5 Points @ 1.85 | Confidence: 8

Fractional Kelly Confidence (0-20)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons | Game Totals Under 210.5 @ Odds: 2.14 | Confidence: 13


Positive EV
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons | Game Totals Under 210.5 @ Odds: 2.14 = 31%

11th MAY - NHL

Version 1 (Fully Automatic)

Confidence
Minnesota Wild ML @ 2.27 | Confidence 7


Value Bet Rankings
Minnesota Wild ML @ 2.27 | Edge Value 9.73
COL @ MIN - Under 6.5 @ 1.88 | Edge Value 6.31


Version 2:

Confidence

Colorado Avalanche ML @ 1.70 | Confidence Score: 8
Colorado Avalanche ML Regular Time @ 2.10 | Confidence Score: 7
Colorado Avalanche vs Minnesota Wild | Over 6.5 Goals @ 2.01 | Confidence Score: 8

Fractional Kelly Confidence (0-20)
No value


Positive EV
NO Value