Edge Score - Tracking Thread

I’ve had a thread here where I’ve been fading favorites, and it’s been going pretty well overall. That said, I haven’t really had the time to properly explain my picks or keep track of results consistently.

So I’m gonna try something different and run a little experiment, basically automate the whole process using the Kelly Criterion.

f* = (bp - q) / b

Step 1: Pull in as much data as possible
Step 2: Check implied probabilities
Step 3: Calculate EV
Step 4: Run full Kelly
Step 5: Step 4 × Step 3

I’ve got two slightly different versions of this, and I’ll use this thread to track everything for now.

Calculating your own probability v implied ….

Do you use your own metrics?

11th May - Soccer

Version 1 (Fully Automatic)

Confidence
Napoli Win ML @ 1.57 | Confidence 7

Value Bet Rankings
Girona -0.25 AH @ 2.65 | Edge Value 4.90



Version 2:

Confidence
Napoli ML @ 1.57 | Confidence: 9
Napoli vs Bologna - Under 2.5 @ 1.95 | Confidence: 8
Napoli -1.0 @ 1.97 | Confidence 7
Tottenham vs Leeds - BTTS (Yes) @ 1.79 | Confidence 8
Tottenham vs Leeds - Over 2.5 @ 1.84 | Confidence 8
Leeds X2 @ 2.15 | Confidence: 9
Millwall ML @ 1.73 | Confidence: 9
Millwall vs Hull - Under 2.5 @ 1.80 | Confidence 8
Millwall -0.25 @ 1.50 | Confidence 8
Vallecano vs Girona - Under 2.5 @ 1.95 | Confidence 8


Fractional Kelly Confidence (0-20)
Napoli ML @ 1.57 | Confidence: 11
Leeds X2 @ 2.15 | Confidence: 17


Positive EV
Leeds X2 @ 2.15 = +40%
Vallecano -0.25 = +29%
Vallecano vs Girona - Under 2.5 = +27%
Napoli vs Bologna - Under 2.5 = +25%
Tottenham vs Leeds -BTTS (Yes) = + 22%

Interesting. Curious how this shakes out.

11th May - MLB

Version 1 (Fully Automatic)

Confidence
NY Yankees ML @ 1.70 | Confidence 7
Tampa Bay Rays ML @ 2.10 | Confidence 7 
Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays - F5 Under 4.5 @ 1.60 | Confidence 8
Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays - Blue Jays Under 3.5 @ 1.95  | Confidence 7 
Texas Rangers ML @ 1.80 | Confidence 7 
Seattle Mariners ML @ 1.74 | Confidence 7 
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros - F5 Under 4.5 @ 1.94 | Confidence 7
LA Dodgers ML @ 1.56 | Confidence 7


Value Bet Rankings
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros - F5 Under 4.5 @ 1.94 | Edge Value 5.26
Tampa Bay Rays ML @ 2.10 | Edge Value 4.78
Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays - Blue Jays Under 3.5 @ 1.95  | Edge Value 3.56




Version 2:

Confidence
Angels vs Guardians | Full Game Under 7.5 Runs @ 1.98 | Confidence 8
Angels vs Guardians | F5 Guardians ML @ 2.72 | Confidence 7
Angels vs Guardians | Guardians ML @ 1.62 | Confidence 7
Yankees vs Orioles | F5 Yankees ML @ 1.92 | Confidence 8
Rays vs Blue Jays | F5 Under 3.5 Runs @ 2.05 | Confidence 9
Rays vs Blue Jays | Under 7 Runs @ 2.02 | Confidence 8
Diamondbacks vs Rangers | F5 Diamondbacks ML @ 2.12 | Confidence 7
Diamondbacks vs Rangers | Diamondbacks ML @ 2.14 | Confidence 7
Diamondbacks vs Rangers | Full Game Under 7.5 Runs @ 1.92 | Confidence 7
Mariners vs Astros | F5 Over 4.5 Runs @ 1.94 | Confidence 7
Giants vs Dodgers | F5 Over 5 Runs @ 1.91 | Confidence 8
Giants vs Dodgers | F5 Giants ML @ 2.79 | Confidence 7

Fractional Kelly Confidence (0-20)
Rays vs Blue Jays | F5 Under 3.5 Runs @ 2.05 | Confidence 17


Positive EV
Giants vs Dodgers | F5 Giants ML @ 2.79 = 62%
Angels vs Guardians | Guardians ML @ 1.62 = 52%
Mariners vs Astros | F5 Astros @ 2.58 = 37%
Rays vs Blue Jays | F5 Under 3.5 Runs @ 2.05 = 35%
Giants vs Dodgers | F5 Over 5 Runs @ 1.91 = 24%
Diamondbacks vs Rangers | F5 Diamondbacks ML @ 2.12 = 23%
Angels vs Guardians | Full Game Under 7.5 Runs @ 1.98 = 23%
Yankees vs Orioles | F5 Yankees ML @ 1.92 = 21%

11th May - NBA

Version 1 (Fully Automatic)

Confidence
Cavaliers ML @ 1.64 | Confidence 7
CLE Cavaliers vs DET Pistons - Under 214.5 @ 1.79  | Confidence 7


Value Bet Rankings
LAL vs OKC - LeBron James Over 22.5 Pts @ 1.90 | Edge Value 5.6
LAL vs OKC - Over 214.5 @ 1.92 | Edge Value 5.5



Version 2:

Confidence
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons | Detroit Pistons +4.5 Spread @ 1.78 | Confidence: 8
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons | Game Totals Under 210.5 @ Odds: 2.14 | Confidence: 9
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons | Cade Cunningham Over 8.5 Assists @ 1.73 | Confidence: 8
Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder| Oklahoma City Thunder -10 Spread @ 1.65 | Confidence: 9
Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder | LAL Team Total Under 103.5 @ 1.64 | Confidence: 8
Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder | Ajay Mitchell Over 16.5 Points @ 1.85 | Confidence: 8

Fractional Kelly Confidence (0-20)
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons | Game Totals Under 210.5 @ Odds: 2.14 | Confidence: 13


Positive EV
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons | Game Totals Under 210.5 @ Odds: 2.14 = 31%

11th MAY - NHL

Version 1 (Fully Automatic)

Confidence
Minnesota Wild ML @ 2.27 | Confidence 7


Value Bet Rankings
Minnesota Wild ML @ 2.27 | Edge Value 9.73
COL @ MIN - Under 6.5 @ 1.88 | Edge Value 6.31


Version 2:

Confidence

Colorado Avalanche ML @ 1.70 | Confidence Score: 8
Colorado Avalanche ML Regular Time @ 2.10 | Confidence Score: 7
Colorado Avalanche vs Minnesota Wild | Over 6.5 Goals @ 2.01 | Confidence Score: 8

Fractional Kelly Confidence (0-20)
No value


Positive EV
NO Value

12th May - Soccer

Version 1 (Fully Automatic)

Confidence

Betis vs Elche | Betis ML @  1.61 | Confidence: 7
Betis vs Elche | Betis Over 1.5 Goals @  1.58 | Confidence: 7
Southampton vs Middlesbrough | Middlesbrough ML @ 2.80 | Confidence: 7
Southampton vs Middlesbrough | Under 2.5 @ 2.06 | Confidence: 7
Southampton vs Middlesbrough | Middlesbrough +0.25 @ 1.75 | Confidence: 7

Value Bet Rankings
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Atletico Madrid ML @ 2.72 | Edge Value 6.00
Southampton vs Middlesbrough | Under 2.5 @ 2.06 | Edge Value 4.76
Southampton vs Middlesbrough | Middlesbrough ML @ 2.80 | Edge Value 3,34


Version 2:

Confidence
Red Star vs Rodez | BTTS - Yes @ 1.82 | Confidence: 8
Red Star vs Rodez | Red Star AH -0.25 @  2.00 | Confidence: 7
Celta Vigo vs Levante | Celta Vigo ML @ 1.90 | Confidence: 8
Celta Vigo vs Levante | Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.81 | Confidence: 7
Betis vs Elche | Betis ML @ 1.61 | Confidence: 9
Betis vs Elche | Betis AH -1.0 @ 1.97 | Confidence: 7
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 | Confidence: 9
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Osasuna AH +0.5 @ 1.55 | Confidence: 8
Southampton vs Middlesbrough | Southampton ML @ 2.45 | Confidence: 8
Southampton vs Middlesbrough | Under 2.5 Goals @  2.06 | Confidence: 7

Fractional Kelly Confidence (0-20)
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 | Confidence: 20


Positive EV
Southampton vs Middlesbrough | Southampton ML @ 2.45 | 45%
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 | 43%
Betis vs Elche | Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.36 | 23%

Great work.

I have been expressing interested in this approach over the past few months.

The best bets for today would be Southampton to win and Under 3.5 Goals @ 3.50 with Coolbet

For NBA it should be:  Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 Points (Confidence Score: 9 | +28.64% EV)

I didn't abandon this, just underestimated the time it would take to post everything here in the forum.
But I have everything saved on Google Sheets and will post results next week.

Top 5 MLB Bets (Version 2)

1. Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings (F5) Moneyline
Expected Value (EV): 41.44%

2. D-backs vs. Rockies – Full Game Total Over 11.5 Runs
Expected Value (EV): 30.56%

3. Padres vs. Mariners – Full Game Total Under 7 Runs
Expected Value (EV): 27.89%

4. Texas Rangers First 5 Innings (F5) Run Line (-0.5)
Expected Value (EV): 27.40%

5. Giants vs. Athletics – Full Game Total Over 10 Runs
Expected Value (EV): 24.62%


Version 1

1 MIA @ TB TB ML 24.91%
2 BOS @ ATL ATL ML 24.35 %
3 PHI @ PIT PHI ML 21.86%
4 TEX @ HOU TEX F5 ML 22.66 %
5 NYY @ NYM Over 9.0  13.14%


Soccer (Version 2)

1. FC Porto ML
2. Bayern Munich ML
3. Sporting ML
4. Manchester City – ML
5. Sligo Rovers vs Galway United – Under 2.5 Goals


Version 1

Pick 1 — Houston Dynamo vs Vancouver Whitecaps: Over 2.5 Goals
Est. Prob: 57.1% | Edge Score: 16.66 | EV: +0.713/unit

Pick 2 — Houston Dynamo vs Vancouver Whitecaps: Vancouver Away Win
Est. Prob: 56.5% | Edge Score: 16.00 | EV: +0.549/unit

Pick 3 — Estoril vs Benfica: Over 2.5 Goals
Est. Prob: 65.2% | Edge Score: 13.12 | EV: +0.336/unit

Pick 4 — Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund: Over 2.5 Goals
Est. Prob: 59.5% | Edge Score: 12.46 | EV: +0.431/unit

Pick 5 — Chelsea vs Manchester City FA Cup Final: BTTS Yes
Est. Prob: 64.2% | Edge Score: 8.68 | EV: +0.239/unit


Version 3 (Semi automatic)

1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg — Under 2.5 Goals

2. Atlético Mineiro vs Mirassol — Atlético Mineiro ML

3. SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig — Leipzig Win ML

4. D.C. United vs St. Louis City SC — D.C. United Win ML

5. Philadelphia Union vs Columbus Crew — Under 2.5 Goals

Ok, lets try this live

18th May - MLB - POD

Mariners F5 ML (-0.5) @ 1.91

Seattle F5 Moneyline (Odds: 1.91 | Prob: 66% | Conf: 9)

Implied Prob: 1/1.91=52.35%

EV: ((0.66\times1.91)-1)=0.2606 (26.06%)

Full Kelly: ((0.91\times0.66)-0.34)/0.91=0.2864

Fractional Kelly (0.50x): 0.2864\times0.50=0.1432

19th May - Soccer - POD

Manchester City ML @ 1.66

Bournemouth vs Manchester City | Manchester City ML @ 1.66

• Extract Data: Odds: 1.65 | Est. Prob: 76% | Conf: 9

• Implied Probability Check: (1 / 1.65) * 100 = 60.61%

• Expected Value (EV) Calculation: ((76 / 100) * 1.65) - 1 = 1.254 - 1 = +25.40%

• Full Kelly Calculation: ((1.65 - 1) * 0.76 - (1 - 0.76)) / (1.65 - 1) = (0.494 - 0.24) / 0.65 = 0.390769

<

19th May - MLB - POD

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics: Total Under 9.0 Runs @ 1.97 (Pinnacle Sports)

Angels vs Athletics | Total Under 9.0 Runs

• Data: Odds: 1.97, Est. Prob: 67%, Confidence: 9 (Multiplier: 0.50)

• Implied Probability Check: (1 / 1.97) * 100 = 50.76% (Value vs 67%)

• Expected Value (EV): ((67 / 100) * 1.97) - 1 = 0.3199 (31.99%)

• Full Kelly: ((1.97 - 1) * 0.67 - (1 - 0.67)) / (1.97 - 1) = (0.6499 - 0.33) / 0.97 = 0.3298

• Fractional Kelly: 0.3298 * 0.50 = 0.1649

20th May - POD Soccer

Freiburg vs Aston Villa | Both Teams to Score (Yes) @ 2.02 with Coolbet (2 units)

• Odds: 2.02 | Est. Prob: 66% | Conf: 9 (0.50x Kelly)

• Implied Prob: (1 / 2.02) * 100 = 49.50%

• EV Calculation: (0.66 * 2.02) - 1 = 1.3332 - 1 = 0.3332 (33.32%)

• Full Kelly: ((2.02 - 1) * 0.66 - (1 - 0.66)) / (2.02 - 1) = (0.6732 - 0.34) / 1.02 = 0.3267

• Fractional Kelly: 0.3267 * 0.50 = 0.1633

<

POD MLB

Miami Marlins Vs Atlanta Braves

Selection: F5 Away Win @ 1.81

True Prob: 66% | Confidence Score: 9/10

POD MLB

Selection: Washington Nationals Win @ 1.98

True Prob: 68% | Confidence Score: 9/10 | EV: +34.64%  

I've had an absolute nightmare with this.

I was using Gemini Deep Research to pull up stuff like xG quickly and easily, but they’ve now put limits on how often you can use Deep Research in Pro Extended mode.

I tried getting around it by running everything locally, but that turned into a mess as well. Docker sent my computer into an update loop, SearXNG refuses to install so I can’t run Perplexica, and Ollama + DeepSeek are painfully slow.

Anyway, here are today’s five picks — and just to be clear, these are supposed to lose

23rd May

Getafe vs Osasuna - Under 2.5 Goals
Nashville SC vs New York City - Under 2.5 Goals
Real Betis vs Levante - Real Betis ML
Valencia vs Barcelona - Over 2.5 Goals
Valencia vs Barcelona - Barcelona ML


So the plays would be:

Getafe vs Osasuna - Over 2.5 Goals - Risking 0.44 units to win 1 unit
Nashville SC vs New York City - Over 2.5 Goals - Risking 1.16 units to win 1 unit
Levante X2 - Risking 1.36 units
Valencia vs Barcelona - Under 2.5 Goals - Risking 0.56 units to win 1 unit
Valencia X2 - Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Remo 1X - Risking 2.2 units to win 1 unit
Brentford X2 - Risking 0.94 units to win 1 unit
Manchester City vs Aston Villa - Under 3.5 Goals - Risking 0.91 units to win 1 unit
Sunderland 1X - Risking 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Bournemouth X2 - Risking 2.7 units to win 1 unit

Dumb ass Remo player had to get a red card and screw the perfect slate.
Going to be interesting how it holds up now when the Top Leagues has finished

Today:

Don't know why games fell off but here they are again:

IFK Göteborg DC - Risking 2.1 units 
Shamrock Rovers DC - Risking 1.52 units
Shelbourne DC- Risking 1.8 units
CSKA 1948 DC - Risking 2.7 units
CSKA Sofia DC - Risking 0.79 units

4 out of 5 today as well (Ludogorets scored minute 94)