Posted:
#476
BTW - Colombia is currently +1018 to win the tournament on Pinnacle.
I got them at+3200.
Thats not too bad.
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Copa America tournament thread....
Posted:
#479
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Because if they play Tina in the semis - they most certainly will be a bigger than should be dog. To bet Tina - or to hedge in your words - I would have to pay extra to do it - and Im not willing. Like I said, I think it will be hard for me to not add on because Colombia would probably be like +300 to advance in that game.
but the line you HAVE on columbia is +3250. doesn't that seem overvalued (if you are going to use that line of thinking)? why not sell it back at a much lower price instead of watching it go to zero?
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Posted:
#481
Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:
but the line you HAVE on columbia is +3250. doesn't that seem overvalued (if you are going to use that line of thinking)? why not sell it back at a much lower price instead of watching it go to zero?
Glad to see you on it too.
I started and was involved in an epic hedging thread, where I explained the hidden cost of hedging. The reason I wont sell it back - unless I think the current price on an independent basis is a good one (one that I would bet independent of my current bet) - is because you are getting LESS than you should.
Now - there is also a concept of utility - which might come in to play because of the long odds here - but for now - personally - Im not willing to "pay" extra (according to my line valuatoins) to get out of this bet by hedging. That may change, and I will keep this thread informed if circumstances change to the point where I see value - but I am always consistent on this - Im not willing to get paid less than my current position is worth just to hedge.
But to each his own.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Posted:
#485
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Glad to see you on it too.
I started and was involved in an epic hedging thread, where I explained the hidden cost of hedging. The reason I wont sell it back - unless I think the current price on an independent basis is a good one (one that I would bet independent of my current bet) - is because you are getting LESS than you should.
Now - there is also a concept of utility - which might come in to play because of the long odds here - but for now - personally - Im not willing to "pay" extra (according to my line valuatoins) to get out of this bet by hedging. That may change, and I will keep this thread informed if circumstances change to the point where I see value - but I am always consistent on this - Im not willing to get paid less than my current position is worth just to hedge.
But to each his own.
yeah, i have read a lot that thread. i would NEVER hedge on a parlay...to me that is totally different from futures. in futures, i look at it as buying low and i would look to sell high if that team goes far. to watch it plummet to zero (even if you are being cheated a few dollars) is a bad investment imo. i view it more like stock trading. buy low & sell high.
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Posted:
#491
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
PLEASE DONT FORGET TO POST HERE IF ANYONE SEES A 3rd PLACE GAME TOTAL
Pinnacla only has USA/Japan game
World Cup Women Soccer - Sun 7/17 |
||||||||||||||
| Handicap | 1X2 | Total Goals | More | |||||||||||
| Sun 7/17 | 7601 | Japan (w) | 0 and +0.5 2.130 | 3.880 | OVER 2 and 2.5 1.990 | 06:00 AM | 7602 | USA (W) | 0 and -0.5 1.800 | 2.080 | UNDER 2 and 2.5 1.901 | |||
| 7603 | Draw | 3.420 | ||||||||||||
365 has both games up
Total Goals
o2.5 -118
u2.5 -105
Asian Goals [lower limits]
o2.5 1.875 (-114)
u2.5 1.925 (-108)
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Posted:
#498
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Swoop - you better check if you can get the +1 anymore. I think you would have to pay about -150 for that.
Back when the line was +1 and the total was 2 and 2.5, I debated the same thing you did, and just came up with the total as a better bet because my most likely final score is Paraguay 1-0. When I assigned probabilities to final scores, and summed them up, the under was a better play for me.
But if you can get +1 at a good price, it would be a better bet than the under 2 at a high price.
Needless to say, the 3-3 draw didnt enter my probability matrix.
Just awful.
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