Copa America tournament thread....

Because if they play Tina in the semis - they most certainly will be a bigger than should be dog.  To bet Tina - or to hedge in your words - I would have to pay extra to do it - and Im not willing.  Like I said, I think it will be hard for me to not add on because Colombia would probably be like +300 to advance in that game.

Me... +3250 at 5dimes $2 to win $65

That's right, I am a high roller!

Glad to see you on it too.

I started and was involved in an epic hedging thread, where I explained the hidden cost of hedging.  The reason I wont sell it back - unless I think the current price on an independent basis is a good one (one that I would bet independent of my current bet) - is because you are getting LESS than you should.

Now - there is also a concept of utility - which might come in to play because of the long odds here - but for now - personally - Im not willing to "pay" extra (according to my line valuatoins) to get out of this bet by hedging.  That may change, and I will keep this thread informed if circumstances change to the point where I see value - but I am always consistent on this - Im not willing to get paid less than my current position is worth just to hedge.

But to each his own.

PLEASE DONT FORGET TO POST HERE IF ANYONE SEES A 3rd PLACE GAME TOTAL

Swoop - you better check if you can get the +1 anymore.  I think you would have to pay about -150 for that.

Back when the line was +1 and the total was 2 and 2.5, I debated the same thing you did, and just came up with the total as a better bet because my most likely final score is Paraguay 1-0.  When I assigned probabilities to final scores, and summed them up, the under was a better play for me.

But if you can get +1 at a good price, it would be a better bet than the under 2 at a high price.