Copa America tournament thread....

Im also very curious to see the 3rd place game total.

I wonder if the chicks are the same as the men with the auto-over.

HELP A BROTHA OUT WITH SOME CHICK STATS!

Id be willing to kick that line around if it comes out at 3 or less.

Last 2 WC's were 3-1 and 4-1.

Maybe we will see a 2.5 somewhere.

PLEASE UPDATE THIS THREAD AS SOON AS YOU SEE A TOTAL ANYWHERE ON THE 3RD PLACE GAME.

Officially adding Brazil / Equador OVER 2.5 -105 (1 unit)

The line has just gotten to the point where it sucks me in.  I have visions of those horrible Equadorian strikers missing the goal in opportunity after opportunity, but I cant resist at this price.

I have had multiple versions of this vision in this tournament.

As for the 3rd place game, Im really hoping to see 2.5.  I might be overly optimistic, but Im just hoping this slips by.  Let me know if you see it up somewhere.

From what I see on Betfair in the market to win the tournament - it looks like the USA will be about -180 to win the cup.

Too high IMO - but what do I know.

I keep thinking about the same thing.  If these 2 keepers keep up their current pace of play,it could go way over any number.

Hedge Plan?

We dont need no stinkin hedge plan!

The way this tourney is going, Im as happy having Colombia as anyone else.  I always look at "hedge" wagers as individual wagers - ie if I thought Colombia was OVERPRICED I would bet the other side, but I really dont see that happening and will probably have to fight myself to not add on because they should be underpriced.

Paraguay really doesnt play loose and reckless.  Despite the Brazil game, they are a classic 1 goal a game total team.  And I dont see Venezuela coming out to prove anything, they are very happy to be where they are.

Just my opinion - I dont have a crystal ball - but think the chances are good this is another yawner.

Yeah - I cant really understand the +180.  Granted - my knowledge of womens soccer is really this tournament and the olympics every few years - but from what I have seen - 180 seems like a very high price.

But I am really concerned about that 5'4" Japanese keeper.  Could be a deciding factor - but I really do thinkn the Japan possession game will give the USA problems in the same way Sweden did a week ago.  If Japan has 60% possession, there is a good chance we will lose.

Quote Originally Posted by Swoop:

Van, a few hours ago, I could have gotten Under 2 in Par/Ven at +105.  Now it's -120    

If you're expecting a 0-0, 1-0, or 1-1 game, would I be better served to take the +1 line on Venezuela?  Or could you see this being a 2-0 Paraguay win? 

Swoop - you better check if you can get the +1 anymore.  I think you would have to pay about -150 for that.

Back when the line was +1 and the total was 2 and 2.5, I debated the same thing you did, and just came up with the total as a better bet because my most likely final score is Paraguay 1-0.  When I assigned probabilities to final scores, and summed them up, the under was a better play for me.

But if you can get +1 at a good price, it would be a better bet than the under 2 at a high price.

Because if they play Tina in the semis - they most certainly will be a bigger than should be dog.  To bet Tina - or to hedge in your words - I would have to pay extra to do it - and Im not willing.  Like I said, I think it will be hard for me to not add on because Colombia would probably be like +300 to advance in that game.

I think your math might be a little off....

I am seeing draw odds at about +250 in the first game, and +450 in the second.  That ends up being roughly 13-1.

What are your odds on the 2 draws individually?

PLEASE DONT FORGET TO POST HERE IF ANYONE SEES A 3rd PLACE GAME TOTAL