I wanted to write up a full and proper preview, but lost steam, motivation, and time - so instead of that - here is a much shorter version which will include all of my plays for this tournament.
This should really be a fantastic tournament.
Future: A. Columbia +32-1 (risk .25 unit to win 8 units)
Friday July 1 1. Bolivia +2.5 -113 (1 unit) 2. Arg / Bol Under 3 and 3.5 +107 (1.5 units)
Saturday July 2 3. CR / Columbia Under 2.5 -114 (1.5 units)
GL all - I will be around all tournament to "shoot the dirt".
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I wanted to write up a full and proper preview, but lost steam, motivation, and time - so instead of that - here is a much shorter version which will include all of my plays for this tournament.
This should really be a fantastic tournament.
Future: A. Columbia +32-1 (risk .25 unit to win 8 units)
Friday July 1 1. Bolivia +2.5 -113 (1 unit) 2. Arg / Bol Under 3 and 3.5 +107 (1.5 units)
Saturday July 2 3. CR / Columbia Under 2.5 -114 (1.5 units)
GL all - I will be around all tournament to "shoot the dirt".
BTW, just saw that "Hot Seat" thread for the first time this week. Phenomenal read.....possibly the best thing I've ever seen on Covers. Many others have said this, but the honesty you provided in response to every question was truly amazing.
I'll stop the love-fest now so we can get back to Soccer.
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BTW, just saw that "Hot Seat" thread for the first time this week. Phenomenal read.....possibly the best thing I've ever seen on Covers. Many others have said this, but the honesty you provided in response to every question was truly amazing.
I'll stop the love-fest now so we can get back to Soccer.
Argentina is going to win this tournament in their backyard especially with a young Brazil team. Yeah I know I am really going out on a limb. Took them +100 to win it all. GL Van!
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Argentina is going to win this tournament in their backyard especially with a young Brazil team. Yeah I know I am really going out on a limb. Took them +100 to win it all. GL Van!
I haven't bet anything in a while other than tennis except for Mexico and the Miss USA pageant, but I plan on blindly tailing Vanzack for the entire Copa America-why the hell not lol
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I haven't bet anything in a while other than tennis except for Mexico and the Miss USA pageant, but I plan on blindly tailing Vanzack for the entire Copa America-why the hell not lol
Do you really think Columbia has a chance to win the thing? I mean that number may be inflated but I just can't see them winning this tournament more than once if they played it 32 times can you?
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Do you really think Columbia has a chance to win the thing? I mean that number may be inflated but I just can't see them winning this tournament more than once if they played it 32 times can you?
I haven't bet anything in a while other than tennis except for Mexico and the Miss USA pageant, but I plan on blindly tailing Vanzack for the entire Copa America-why the hell not lol
i'll tail with you, my atheistic friend.
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Quote Originally Posted by KittyKatz286:
I haven't bet anything in a while other than tennis except for Mexico and the Miss USA pageant, but I plan on blindly tailing Vanzack for the entire Copa America-why the hell not lol
And billy, thanks regarding my avatar (I was so upset when the woz lost, but when the Williams sisters lost, I felt a little better) and yeah, Vanzack won me a large amount of dollars on the World Cup last year. I'm gonna assume he's gonna do the same thing he's doing here for the Euro tournament next year.
I've been killing Wimbledon too. 7-0 so far (I'm very selective). I know this isn't the venue for this, but for what it's worth, I like Tsonga tomorrow.
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Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:
i'll tail with you, my atheistic friend.
My man lol.
And billy, thanks regarding my avatar (I was so upset when the woz lost, but when the Williams sisters lost, I felt a little better) and yeah, Vanzack won me a large amount of dollars on the World Cup last year. I'm gonna assume he's gonna do the same thing he's doing here for the Euro tournament next year.
I've been killing Wimbledon too. 7-0 so far (I'm very selective). I know this isn't the venue for this, but for what it's worth, I like Tsonga tomorrow.
BTW, just saw that "Hot Seat" thread for the first time this week. Phenomenal read.....possibly the best thing I've ever seen on Covers. Many others have said this, but the honesty you provided in response to every question was truly amazing.
I'll stop the love-fest now so we can get back to Soccer.
Thanks man - very nice.
I had fun with that thread.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:
BTW, just saw that "Hot Seat" thread for the first time this week. Phenomenal read.....possibly the best thing I've ever seen on Covers. Many others have said this, but the honesty you provided in response to every question was truly amazing.
I'll stop the love-fest now so we can get back to Soccer.
Argentina is going to win this tournament in their backyard especially with a young Brazil team. Yeah I know I am really going out on a limb. Took them +100 to win it all. GL Van!
On paper, they certainly should win. But -100 is tough - especially in a 1 game knockout format in the later rounds.
We will see.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:
Argentina is going to win this tournament in their backyard especially with a young Brazil team. Yeah I know I am really going out on a limb. Took them +100 to win it all. GL Van!
On paper, they certainly should win. But -100 is tough - especially in a 1 game knockout format in the later rounds.
And billy, thanks regarding my avatar (I was so upset when the woz lost, but when the Williams sisters lost, I felt a little better) and yeah, Vanzack won me a large amount of dollars on the World Cup last year. I'm gonna assume he's gonna do the same thing he's doing here for the Euro tournament next year.
I've been killing Wimbledon too. 7-0 so far (I'm very selective). I know this isn't the venue for this, but for what it's worth, I like Tsonga tomorrow.
careful with tsonga...don't like him tomorrow at all.
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Quote Originally Posted by KittyKatz286:
My man lol.
And billy, thanks regarding my avatar (I was so upset when the woz lost, but when the Williams sisters lost, I felt a little better) and yeah, Vanzack won me a large amount of dollars on the World Cup last year. I'm gonna assume he's gonna do the same thing he's doing here for the Euro tournament next year.
I've been killing Wimbledon too. 7-0 so far (I'm very selective). I know this isn't the venue for this, but for what it's worth, I like Tsonga tomorrow.
careful with tsonga...don't like him tomorrow at all.
Agree that Argentina is overvalued here, still trying to decide how I will fade them; game by game or the entire tournament.
I have decided to wait and see what they will be starting the knockout stage. If they win their 3 group games, they might be in the -150 range entering the quarterfinals.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:
Agree that Argentina is overvalued here, still trying to decide how I will fade them; game by game or the entire tournament.
I have decided to wait and see what they will be starting the knockout stage. If they win their 3 group games, they might be in the -150 range entering the quarterfinals.
I haven't bet anything in a while other than tennis except for Mexico and the Miss USA pageant, but I plan on blindly tailing Vanzack for the entire Copa America-why the hell not lol
Welcome aboard!
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by KittyKatz286:
I haven't bet anything in a while other than tennis except for Mexico and the Miss USA pageant, but I plan on blindly tailing Vanzack for the entire Copa America-why the hell not lol
Do you really think Columbia has a chance to win the thing? I mean that number may be inflated but I just can't see them winning this tournament more than once if they played it 32 times can you?
Well, I bet them based on that exact line of thinking. Dont forget, if you make it to the quarterfinals (which 8 of the 12 teams will), you are 3 wins away from the trophy. Im not trying to state the obvious - but you have to look at the tourney format - these are not home and home ties - these are 90 min knockout games. Get hot for 3 games and you win.
So 32-1 is appealing to me in this style of tournament, and -100 on argentina is unappealing for the exact same reason.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:
Do you really think Columbia has a chance to win the thing? I mean that number may be inflated but I just can't see them winning this tournament more than once if they played it 32 times can you?
Well, I bet them based on that exact line of thinking. Dont forget, if you make it to the quarterfinals (which 8 of the 12 teams will), you are 3 wins away from the trophy. Im not trying to state the obvious - but you have to look at the tourney format - these are not home and home ties - these are 90 min knockout games. Get hot for 3 games and you win.
So 32-1 is appealing to me in this style of tournament, and -100 on argentina is unappealing for the exact same reason.
Well, I bet them based on that exact line of thinking. Dont forget, if you make it to the quarterfinals (which 8 of the 12 teams will), you are 3 wins away from the trophy. Im not trying to state the obvious - but you have to look at the tourney format - these are not home and home ties - these are 90 min knockout games. Get hot for 3 games and you win.
So 32-1 is appealing to me in this style of tournament, and -100 on argentina is unappealing for the exact same reason.
Fair enough. I completely agree that this type of tournament is exactly why -100 on Argentina is not a valuable bet at all. Not sure if Columbia has the talent to get hot enough in my opinion but I at least understand your angle. I have plenty of teams that I think are overvalued in the futures department (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay) but just can't pull the trigger on Columbia; looking hard at Chile if anything but will probably just stay away until the group stages are done.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Well, I bet them based on that exact line of thinking. Dont forget, if you make it to the quarterfinals (which 8 of the 12 teams will), you are 3 wins away from the trophy. Im not trying to state the obvious - but you have to look at the tourney format - these are not home and home ties - these are 90 min knockout games. Get hot for 3 games and you win.
So 32-1 is appealing to me in this style of tournament, and -100 on argentina is unappealing for the exact same reason.
Fair enough. I completely agree that this type of tournament is exactly why -100 on Argentina is not a valuable bet at all. Not sure if Columbia has the talent to get hot enough in my opinion but I at least understand your angle. I have plenty of teams that I think are overvalued in the futures department (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay) but just can't pull the trigger on Columbia; looking hard at Chile if anything but will probably just stay away until the group stages are done.
Fair enough. I completely agree that this type of tournament is exactly why -100 on Argentina is not a valuable bet at all. Not sure if Columbia has the talent to get hot enough in my opinion but I at least understand your angle. I have plenty of teams that I think are overvalued in the futures department (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay) but just can't pull the trigger on Columbia; looking hard at Chile if anything but will probably just stay away until the group stages are done.
I looked at Chile too - think they are a good bet.
Same with Paraguay.
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Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:
Fair enough. I completely agree that this type of tournament is exactly why -100 on Argentina is not a valuable bet at all. Not sure if Columbia has the talent to get hot enough in my opinion but I at least understand your angle. I have plenty of teams that I think are overvalued in the futures department (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay) but just can't pull the trigger on Columbia; looking hard at Chile if anything but will probably just stay away until the group stages are done.
I looked at Chile too - think they are a good bet.
Don't understand how you could want to fade Argentina. Even money is a steal considering they are going to be a minimum of -300 in the final once Brazil is eliminated.
Wanting to fade Argentina, and looking at other games in this tournament are different.
It is going to take an epic disaster for Argentina not to be in the finals.
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Don't understand how you could want to fade Argentina. Even money is a steal considering they are going to be a minimum of -300 in the final once Brazil is eliminated.
Wanting to fade Argentina, and looking at other games in this tournament are different.
It is going to take an epic disaster for Argentina not to be in the finals.
Don't understand how you could want to fade Argentina. Even money is a steal considering they are going to be a minimum of -300 in the final once Brazil is eliminated.
Wanting to fade Argentina, and looking at other games in this tournament are different.
It is going to take an epic disaster for Argentina not to be in the finals.
They have to make it there first. At -100 would be around -600, -300, and -300 to advance in their 3 knockout stage games; that's pretty pricey if you ask me. No way they would be that big of favorites against Chile or Uruguay (assuming Brazil is knocked out like you say).
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Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:
Don't understand how you could want to fade Argentina. Even money is a steal considering they are going to be a minimum of -300 in the final once Brazil is eliminated.
Wanting to fade Argentina, and looking at other games in this tournament are different.
It is going to take an epic disaster for Argentina not to be in the finals.
They have to make it there first. At -100 would be around -600, -300, and -300 to advance in their 3 knockout stage games; that's pretty pricey if you ask me. No way they would be that big of favorites against Chile or Uruguay (assuming Brazil is knocked out like you say).
They have to make it there first. At -100 would be around -600, -300, and -300 to advance in their 3 knockout stage games; that's pretty pricey if you ask me. No way they would be that big of favorites against Chile or Uruguay (assuming Brazil is knocked out like you say).
It's hard to calculate what the prices will be because right now all we see are the 3 way lines, and the spreads. We can't see exactly what type of love teams are going to get. To advance they should be -300 against Chile and or Uruguay, and even more against others, but again those are my rough estimates without adjusting based on just seeing 3 way prices.
I think -100 is a steal. The game of soccer isn't tricking anyone. Germany EVEN money to win women's world cup, Argentina -115 now on Pinny to win Copa, and Brazil at 5/2 right now to win 2014 World Cup.
These home countries have it made to get as far as possible, and it only helps that they have the best team in the Copa.
Assuming Argentina will be -300 or better in the final, I am all over -105 to win the tourney. The line is rising for a reason.
Good luck in your wagers my friend!
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Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:
They have to make it there first. At -100 would be around -600, -300, and -300 to advance in their 3 knockout stage games; that's pretty pricey if you ask me. No way they would be that big of favorites against Chile or Uruguay (assuming Brazil is knocked out like you say).
It's hard to calculate what the prices will be because right now all we see are the 3 way lines, and the spreads. We can't see exactly what type of love teams are going to get. To advance they should be -300 against Chile and or Uruguay, and even more against others, but again those are my rough estimates without adjusting based on just seeing 3 way prices.
I think -100 is a steal. The game of soccer isn't tricking anyone. Germany EVEN money to win women's world cup, Argentina -115 now on Pinny to win Copa, and Brazil at 5/2 right now to win 2014 World Cup.
These home countries have it made to get as far as possible, and it only helps that they have the best team in the Copa.
Assuming Argentina will be -300 or better in the final, I am all over -105 to win the tourney. The line is rising for a reason.
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