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    All Forums | Soccer

    Copa America tournament thread....

    «First Previous 222324 ... 242526 Next Last»
    vanzack
    ZonaCats
    P4P
    kaponofor3
    arkadymo
    ...
    Participants:
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    Views: 47696
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    «First Previous 222324 ... 242526 Next Last»
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jul. 13, 2011 - 9:59 PM ET #526

    Quote Originally Posted by nagrom:

    silly question

    But if i have Braz at -1 asian handicap  and they win 2-1 should that be a push?

    Push.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nagrom:

    silly question

    But if i have Braz at -1 asian handicap  and they win 2-1 should that be a push?

    Push.

     
    ZonaCats
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    Posted: Jul. 13, 2011 - 11:12 PM ET #527

    Glad I took both Copa overs , what a goal-fest. None of the teams really had much to  play for (or lose for that matter) and used the games as tune-ups for the knockout round. 

    Brazil got some of their mojo back but are terrible on D. 
    Paraguay's D is nowhere near where it was @ WC'10. 
    Sucks they are playing each other in the quarters.... 

    Still liking my 'Tina futures. 
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    Glad I took both Copa overs , what a goal-fest. None of the teams really had much to  play for (or lose for that matter) and used the games as tune-ups for the knockout round. 

    Brazil got some of their mojo back but are terrible on D. 
    Paraguay's D is nowhere near where it was @ WC'10. 
    Sucks they are playing each other in the quarters.... 

    Still liking my 'Tina futures. 
     
    P4P
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 1:31 AM ET #528

    Uruguay +1 against 'tina at basically even money is pretty tempting, no?
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    Uruguay +1 against 'tina at basically even money is pretty tempting, no?
     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 2:35 AM ET #529

    Looks tempting from where I am sitting P4P
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    Looks tempting from where I am sitting P4P
     
    arkadymo
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 5:24 AM ET #530

    That line is a joke; I would pound it but I could honestly see it move more in favor of Uruguay so I might wait until closer to Saturday...can't decide.
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    That line is a joke; I would pound it but I could honestly see it move more in favor of Uruguay so I might wait until closer to Saturday...can't decide.
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 8:09 AM ET #531

    Officially in on

    Sweden / France Womens Over2.5 -125 (1 unit)

    Thats the most I can feel comfortable putting down on something I know very little about.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Officially in on

    Sweden / France Womens Over2.5 -125 (1 unit)

    Thats the most I can feel comfortable putting down on something I know very little about.

     
    billyloco
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 8:18 AM ET #532

    uno Van you summed it up for me with the "feeling gross about this tournament"..i'm taking my +2.25 unit profits and considering myself lucky and sayin seeya to this tournament.

    May you profit Van...
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    uno Van you summed it up for me with the "feeling gross about this tournament"..i'm taking my +2.25 unit profits and considering myself lucky and sayin seeya to this tournament.

    May you profit Van...
     
    P4P
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 8:21 AM ET #533

    Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

    That line is a joke; I would pound it but I could honestly see it move more in favor of Uruguay so I might wait until closer to Saturday...can't decide.


    Line movement hasn't really gone the way anyone would expect it to in this tournament; so I'd get on it...although already down to -116.

    Very happy with the -102 I got last night.
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    Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

    That line is a joke; I would pound it but I could honestly see it move more in favor of Uruguay so I might wait until closer to Saturday...can't decide.


    Line movement hasn't really gone the way anyone would expect it to in this tournament; so I'd get on it...although already down to -116.

    Very happy with the -102 I got last night.
     
    P4P
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 8:23 AM ET #534

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Officially in on

    Sweden / France Womens Over2.5 -125 (1 unit)

    Thats the most I can feel comfortable putting down on something I know very little about.



    3rd place games are always high-scoring in men's soccer...thinking the same thing here applies to the women's game? Seems reasonable to me.
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Officially in on

    Sweden / France Womens Over2.5 -125 (1 unit)

    Thats the most I can feel comfortable putting down on something I know very little about.



    3rd place games are always high-scoring in men's soccer...thinking the same thing here applies to the women's game? Seems reasonable to me.
     
    arkadymo
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 12:14 PM ET #535

    Jumped on that over too; waiting for my lines to get posted on 5dimes.  Chomping at the bit for Chile under -130.


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    Jumped on that over too; waiting for my lines to get posted on 5dimes.  Chomping at the bit for Chile under -130.


     
    gmitran
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 12:18 PM ET #536

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Yeah - I cant really understand the +180.  Granted - my knowledge of womens soccer is really this tournament and the olympics every few years - but from what I have seen - 180 seems like a very high price.

    But I am really concerned about that 5'4" Japanese keeper.  Could be a deciding factor - but I really do thinkn the Japan possession game will give the USA problems in the same way Sweden did a week ago.  If Japan has 60% possession, there is a good chance we will lose.



    If picking person, I would think might as well pick them in reg at +275.  Japan chances go way down if it goes to extra time as have to score there as Hope is going to have HUGE adv in PK.
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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Yeah - I cant really understand the +180.  Granted - my knowledge of womens soccer is really this tournament and the olympics every few years - but from what I have seen - 180 seems like a very high price.

    But I am really concerned about that 5'4" Japanese keeper.  Could be a deciding factor - but I really do thinkn the Japan possession game will give the USA problems in the same way Sweden did a week ago.  If Japan has 60% possession, there is a good chance we will lose.



    If picking person, I would think might as well pick them in reg at +275.  Japan chances go way down if it goes to extra time as have to score there as Hope is going to have HUGE adv in PK.
     
    ZonaCats
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 12:55 PM ET #537

    Regarding Women's WC 3rd place and Final totals, there isn't much historical data since looks like first WC was in 1991 (this is the 6th):

    Avg goals scored in 3rd place game = 3
    In descending order (2007 to 1991), total goals scored in 3rd place game = 5,4,0,2,4

    Avg goals scored in Final game = 2
    In descending order (2007 to 1991), total goals scored in Final game = 2,3,0,2,3
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    Regarding Women's WC 3rd place and Final totals, there isn't much historical data since looks like first WC was in 1991 (this is the 6th):

    Avg goals scored in 3rd place game = 3
    In descending order (2007 to 1991), total goals scored in 3rd place game = 5,4,0,2,4

    Avg goals scored in Final game = 2
    In descending order (2007 to 1991), total goals scored in Final game = 2,3,0,2,3
     
    arkadymo
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 1:04 PM ET #538

    Zona I think this is as much of a play on the 3rd place game as it is against the 2 terrible goalies involved.
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    Zona I think this is as much of a play on the 3rd place game as it is against the 2 terrible goalies involved.
     
    ZonaCats
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 1:33 PM ET #539

    Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

    Zona I think this is as much of a play on the 3rd place game as it is against the 2 terrible goalies involved.

    Sure, understandable. Bad goalie play = more goals. But you also need to factor in a bounceback effect of some degree. They *should* play better...
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    Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

    Zona I think this is as much of a play on the 3rd place game as it is against the 2 terrible goalies involved.

    Sure, understandable. Bad goalie play = more goals. But you also need to factor in a bounceback effect of some degree. They *should* play better...
     
    Chimpo
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 4:05 PM ET #540

    Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:



    If picking person, I would think might as well pick them in reg at +275.  Japan chances go way down if it goes to extra time as have to score there as Hope is going to have HUGE adv in PK.
    When it comes to Penalty kick , it.s a mental contest than physical skill contest in my opinion. Goalkeeper have roughly a  quater of seconds to get to the ball.  You ve got to guess pretty much.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:



    If picking person, I would think might as well pick them in reg at +275.  Japan chances go way down if it goes to extra time as have to score there as Hope is going to have HUGE adv in PK.
    When it comes to Penalty kick , it.s a mental contest than physical skill contest in my opinion. Goalkeeper have roughly a  quater of seconds to get to the ball.  You ve got to guess pretty much.
     
    Chimpo
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 4:09 PM ET #541

    Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:


    Sure, understandable. Bad goalie play = more goals. But you also need to factor in a bounceback effect of some degree. They *should* play better...
    Or letdown spot ' Oh so close to be playing for marble but we are stuck for 3rd...   only 2 days rest instead of 3 days for 3rd place helps for over imo.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:


    Sure, understandable. Bad goalie play = more goals. But you also need to factor in a bounceback effect of some degree. They *should* play better...
    Or letdown spot ' Oh so close to be playing for marble but we are stuck for 3rd...   only 2 days rest instead of 3 days for 3rd place helps for over imo.
     
    lbcake
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 4:11 PM ET #542

    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Officially in on

    Sweden / France Womens Over2.5 -125 (1 unit)

    Thats the most I can feel comfortable putting down on something I know very little about.



    A lass splash.


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    Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

    Officially in on

    Sweden / France Womens Over2.5 -125 (1 unit)

    Thats the most I can feel comfortable putting down on something I know very little about.



    A lass splash.


     
    Chimpo
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 5:11 PM ET #543

    Speaking of penalty kick . From statistical stand point, according to Michael bar-eli.  the best strategy for goal keepers is to remain in the center of the goal during the penalty kick. But then why do goalies jump left or right?  One of the reason he mentionened 

     " Diving to the left or right gives the appearance of effort and avoids the perception that he/or she didn’t attempt to make a save. In fact, a survey of goal keepers show that the vast majority feel worse if a goal is scored when they remain central versus diving to the left or right." 

     It makes sense to me. 

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    Speaking of penalty kick . From statistical stand point, according to Michael bar-eli.  the best strategy for goal keepers is to remain in the center of the goal during the penalty kick. But then why do goalies jump left or right?  One of the reason he mentionened 

     " Diving to the left or right gives the appearance of effort and avoids the perception that he/or she didn’t attempt to make a save. In fact, a survey of goal keepers show that the vast majority feel worse if a goal is scored when they remain central versus diving to the left or right." 

     It makes sense to me. 

     
    rangerz2478
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 8:33 PM ET #544

    Van I know you have Columbia at +3200, (nice one btw) but do you think +1275 is fair market value for them at the moment?

    Curious your take on the price.
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    Van I know you have Columbia at +3200, (nice one btw) but do you think +1275 is fair market value for them at the moment?

    Curious your take on the price.
     
    rangerz2478
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 8:40 PM ET #545

    Betfair seems to be in the 13 range, so I guess my question is do YOU think this price holds value. Thanks.
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    Betfair seems to be in the 13 range, so I guess my question is do YOU think this price holds value. Thanks.
     
    Michfan15
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    Posted: Jul. 15, 2011 - 1:21 AM ET #546

    how can we not like draw +225 in USA / person

    this is going to be a well played match by both sides, would be surprised if it is decided before extras.  Japans goalie being only 5'4 is quite favorable for Wambachs header though...
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    how can we not like draw +225 in USA / person

    this is going to be a well played match by both sides, would be surprised if it is decided before extras.  Japans goalie being only 5'4 is quite favorable for Wambachs header though...
     
    wonderbettor7
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    Posted: Jul. 15, 2011 - 8:50 AM ET #547

    today in german budesliga 2; E. Cottbus VS Dynamo Dresden wil end U-2.5
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    today in german budesliga 2; E. Cottbus VS Dynamo Dresden wil end U-2.5
     
    ZonaCats
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    Posts: 3600
    Posted: Jul. 15, 2011 - 9:37 AM ET #548

    23 pages - is it time for a separate "Copa Knockout Round" thread? 
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    23 pages - is it time for a separate "Copa Knockout Round" thread? 
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Jul. 15, 2011 - 7:17 PM ET #549

    Record:
    8-8
    Down: 5.36 Units

    Future:
    A. Colombia +32-1 (risk .25 unit to win 8 units)

    Results
    1. Bolivia +2.5 -113 (1 unit), .5 unit to Bolivia +2.5 and 3 -103 - WIN
    2. Arg / Bol Under 3 and 3.5 +107 (1.5 units), .5 unit to the under 3.5 and 4 +108 - WIN
    3. CR / Colombia Under 2.5 -114 (1.5 units) - WIN
    4. Venezuela / Brazil Over 3 -116 (1.5 units) - LOSS
    5. Paraguay -.5 -125 (2.5 units) - LOSS
    6. Uruguay -1 -122 (1.5 units) - adding .5 unit at -108 to make it 2 units total - LOSS
    7. Chile -160 (1 unit) - adding .5 unit at -133 to make it 1.5 units total - WIN
    8. Argentina -1 and -1.5 -105 (4 units) - LOSS
    9. CR +.5 -120 (1 unit) - WIN
    10. Uruguay / Chile over 2 and 2.5 -102 (2.5 units) - HALF LOSS
    11. Peru / Mexico draw +227 (1 unit) - LOSS
    12. Paraguay +1 -118 (3 units) - WIN
    13. Equador / Venezuela over 2 -115 (2 units) - LOSS
    14. Peru / Chile Under 2 and 2.5 - 110 (2 units) - WIN
    15. Uruguay -1 -119 (3 units) - PUSH
    16. Paraguay / Vene Under 2 and 2.5 -120 (2.5 units) - LOSS
    17. Brazil / Equador OVER 2.5 -105 (1 unit) - WIN

    Saturday July 16

    18.  Columbia -.5 -130 (3 units)
    19.  Uruguay +.5 +143 (1.5 units)

    Gl all

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Record:
    8-8
    Down: 5.36 Units

    Future:
    A. Colombia +32-1 (risk .25 unit to win 8 units)

    Results
    1. Bolivia +2.5 -113 (1 unit), .5 unit to Bolivia +2.5 and 3 -103 - WIN
    2. Arg / Bol Under 3 and 3.5 +107 (1.5 units), .5 unit to the under 3.5 and 4 +108 - WIN
    3. CR / Colombia Under 2.5 -114 (1.5 units) - WIN
    4. Venezuela / Brazil Over 3 -116 (1.5 units) - LOSS
    5. Paraguay -.5 -125 (2.5 units) - LOSS
    6. Uruguay -1 -122 (1.5 units) - adding .5 unit at -108 to make it 2 units total - LOSS
    7. Chile -160 (1 unit) - adding .5 unit at -133 to make it 1.5 units total - WIN
    8. Argentina -1 and -1.5 -105 (4 units) - LOSS
    9. CR +.5 -120 (1 unit) - WIN
    10. Uruguay / Chile over 2 and 2.5 -102 (2.5 units) - HALF LOSS
    11. Peru / Mexico draw +227 (1 unit) - LOSS
    12. Paraguay +1 -118 (3 units) - WIN
    13. Equador / Venezuela over 2 -115 (2 units) - LOSS
    14. Peru / Chile Under 2 and 2.5 - 110 (2 units) - WIN
    15. Uruguay -1 -119 (3 units) - PUSH
    16. Paraguay / Vene Under 2 and 2.5 -120 (2.5 units) - LOSS
    17. Brazil / Equador OVER 2.5 -105 (1 unit) - WIN

    Saturday July 16

    18.  Columbia -.5 -130 (3 units)
    19.  Uruguay +.5 +143 (1.5 units)

    Gl all

     
     
    sims_key
    sims_key
    MVP
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2007
    Posts: 16408
    Posted: Jul. 15, 2011 - 7:52 PM ET #550


    van - what's a better play in your opinion?

    Japan +.5 -125
    or
    Japan to advance +160
    or 
    a little of both.
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    van - what's a better play in your opinion?

    Japan +.5 -125
    or
    Japan to advance +160
    or 
    a little of both.
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