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Copa America tournament thread....

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Posts: 633

crazyparlayking

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Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 1745

Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 8:14 PM ET #301

Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:

Typical American degenerates could care less and have no idea the Copa America is even going on.

good point. I am assuming this could be a reason for the spike in total and favourite juice. If it is sharp bettors and Argentina winds up crushing CR 4-0.. then I sound like a fool. It was an analogy I am considering since there is not much to pay attention to for most North American bettors.

arkadymo

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 5107

Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 8:28 PM ET #302

happy, I just misunderstood your post that's all

happycap

Hall of Fame

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 23557

Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 9:11 PM ET #303

Quote Originally Posted by Blue_Chips:

I believe in fixes.

lol ... given that books have been written documenting their existence you'd be crazy not to assume some match fixing occurs in most sports. Declan Hill has written extensively on the subject and Fifa officials sprang into action recently arresting and bringing charges against members of some major soccer federations. Having said that, as I said to ARK, that is not the "money" I was referring to.

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 9:29 PM ET #304

Argentina is unbelievable.

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arkadymo

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 5107

Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 9:35 PM ET #305

I know I will be

for the rest of the game now. Was hoping to get to 0-0 HT score...

sims_key

MVP

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 16408

Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 11:42 PM ET #306

Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:

these lines have 3-0, 4-0 written all over them....i'll be mad if i don't play these though.

i guess i'll also be mad if i do play them.

ZonaCats

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 3600

Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 11:47 PM ET #307

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Tueday July 12

14. Peru / Chile Under 2 and 2.5 - 110 (2 units)
15. Uruguay -1 -119 (3 units)

Welcome to squaresville, population Vanzack.

In short, Peru and Chile both benefit from a draw. Neither side will benefit from an all out offensive attack - I see something very similar to what we have seen all tournament - lots of defensive play with nobody in a big rush to do anything - even if a goal is scored, this really should be a go through the motions type of game.

Uruguay is so obvious, that it is so obvious I will be kicking myself afterwards - but I cant resist. Uruguay, in an absolute must win - against under 23 Mexico? Sorry, but I cant get off of that one.

You don't think Chile/Peru are looking to not get 2nd in their group so they avoid Argentina (especially after they looked tonight)? Uruguay, like you say should be a shoe-in to win over Mexico and they could easily take GD and win the group.

arkadymo

Captain

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Posts: 5107

Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 11:50 PM ET #308

Uruguay now only needs a Draw to advance to the next round. Similarly, Mexico would advance with a Win now. Just food for thought. I still think that Uruguay wins but would've rather them need a win than have it handed to them.

ZonaCats

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Posts: 3600

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 12:33 AM ET #309

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Uruguay now only needs a Draw to advance to the next round. Similarly, Mexico would advance with a Win now. Just food for thought. I still think that Uruguay wins but would've rather them need a win than have it handed to them.

Don't think the Uruguayans will leave it to chance when Paraguay could draw against Venezuela the following day and capture the 2nd third place spot.

BIGfnPOO

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2006

Posts: 18880

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 2:43 AM ET #310

argentina babycakes/..i got 240/200 not a pinny line...real$ gl all...

bigFnPOO

BIGfnPOO

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2006

Posts: 18880

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 2:45 AM ET #311

u must believe in fixes u see them reg.... see bigpoo on u tube re fixes

bigFnPOO

BIGfnPOO

MVP

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Posts: 18880

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 2:46 AM ET #312

i said and bet 240./200 that argies win for maradona and his moms and his carwrecked gumatta........

bigFnPOO

arkadymo

Captain

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Posts: 5107

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 5:23 AM ET #313

Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

Don't think the Uruguayans will leave it to chance when Paraguay could draw against Venezuela the following day and capture the 2nd third place spot.

A draw would guarantee Uruguay a 3rd place spot because it would put them ahead of CR based on Goal Differential. Paraguay would only determine if they were the top 3rd place team or second third place team.

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 8:45 AM ET #314

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

A draw would guarantee Uruguay a 3rd place spot because it would put them ahead of CR based on Goal Differential. Paraguay would only determine if they were the top 3rd place team or second third place team.

Yeah - not to excited about this - but have to think that now that Mexico can advance with a win kind of evens this one out. If a draw suited both teams, I would be a lot more concerned, but Mexico will have to push it if it is tied late.

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arkadymo

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Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 8:59 AM ET #315

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Agreed. I think the game that is most affected by this is Venezuela / Paraguay. Both teams will be suited by a draw because 3 points and +0 GD gets you to the next round, think there could be great value in Venezuela +.5 or maybe outright backing the draw.

kvs23

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 776

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 10:18 AM ET #316

I can get URUGUAY +1,+1.5 -104. Is this a GOOD bet? Seems like URUGUAY will be happy with draw and if up 1 goal will be chilling and not looking to score more. No?

kvs23

Rookie

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Posts: 776

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 10:22 AM ET #317

I mean I can get MEXICO +1, +1.5 -104.

ZonaCats

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Posts: 3600

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 10:52 AM ET #318

Yup, your right. Uruguay can tie and advance. However, as Van stated, mexico will be pushing forward all game. Is Uruguay good at the counter? I'd also speculate they would prefer to avoid a potential match against Brazil (assuming Brazil does win their group with an Argentina-like game) but probably not a good idea to think that deep in these tourneys. Teams are probably happy just to get into the next stage and play whomever.

vanzack

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Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 10:53 AM ET #319

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Agreed. I think the game that is most affected by this is Venezuela / Paraguay. Both teams will be suited by a draw because 3 points and +0 GD gets you to the next round, think there could be great value in Venezuela +.5 or maybe outright backing the draw.

But remember, just because a draw suits both teams, it doesnt make it so. In fact, I cant remember the game but in the WC last summer there was a game where a draw was so obvious (I think it involved Uruguay) - the line was ridiculous - I think like even for a draw, and it ended 2-0 I think.

But in principle, I agree with you.

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vanzack

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Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 10:57 AM ET #320

I think the game was Uruguay vs Mexico.

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Malachiwhy

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Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 7321

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 10:59 AM ET #321

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I think the game was Uruguay vs Mexico.

Very interesting...Good luck Van!!!!

vanzack

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Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 11:09 AM ET #322

While we are on the WC, some things I find incredible about Spain winning....

Spain played 7 games.
Spain only scored 8 goals.
Spain conceded only 2 goals.
All 4 games in the knockout stages were 0-0 at HT, and a 1-0 win in FT to Spain.

I would say nobody has ever won an intl tournament by averaging just over one goal a game (maybe when Greece won the Euro's - gotta check on that).

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vanzack

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Posts: 60107

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 11:13 AM ET #323

Yeah - as I thought - Greece scored 7 goals in 6 games and won.....

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kaponofor3

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Posts: 35430

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 11:27 AM ET #324

Van -- how bad of a line is getting the UNDER 2.5 in the Chile/Peru game at -140? My guess is "pretty bad"

arkadymo

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Posts: 5107

Posted: Jul. 12, 2011 - 11:28 AM ET #325

Very interesting indeed van. You're right, it was Mex / Uru I remember that vividly now that you mention it.

Maybe not a play on the draw but a play on the under with a similar angle to your Chile / Peru bet is more what I would lean after more thought.

While we're on the subject (I know it's far away), have you looked ahead at all to the Euro 2012 yet? I took a peak at the futures the other day and had a few long-shots lightly circled (Portugal, Ukraine, Sweden, Greece)

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