Brazil Serie A - Nautico +0.5 v Ponte Preta

Can anyone explain why Ponte Preta is a -170 favorite over anybody? They haven't scored a goal in their last 4 matches. 

 

 

Don't know mate

Dunno how trustful is this page

the line is that high because nautico plays great at home but horrible on the road....1 win 4 ties 11 loses.....but with that said i think the plus 1 minus 140 might be a good bet..hoping for tie against them

Thanks guys.  I know Nautico sucks on the road, but PP hasn't scored in their last *FOUR* matches.  That's 360 minutes without scoring. 

Still, the line movement and the betting percentages are bothersome. Squares don't put tons of $$$ on a team that hasn't scored in 360 minutes.

Another thing. o2.75 goals is -115 while u2.75 is -105.

PP hasn't scored in 4 matches.  Nautico has scored 2 goals in 4 away matches.  But there's supposed to be an orgy of scoring today?

I sure wish I knew more about Brazilian soccer to understand WTF is going on.

Thanks for that site vincente, quite useful, especially to see where money is today vs results, maybe find some correlation for future use.

gambling is alot of guessing...once the game starts and you see how its unfolding then its usually clear as day...but that you never can see ...alot lines are set by what happened when the lasr met....a 3-0 win for nautico at home...so linemakers feel the revenge factor here and see a nice win for pp at home...who knows...

No clue where any offense will come from as Nautico is horrid scoring on the road (ie: 9 goals in 14 games) and PP is only avg'ing 1.3 goals a game at home. I see a low scoring affair, i'm on the under 3 @ -156.

Well if I go down on fluminense and PP, at least I'm going down with a ton of others, two highest volumes and %'s.

Composite you seem like a fairly smart guy so I say this with good intentions stop trying to mix stats and whats supposed to happen with why lines move.  Its very hard to find a strategy with those 2 tools blended that works in a profitable way because often they conflict with each other here is a huge hint: follow the money and here is the hint the "smart" money was on PP 

Thanks for the tip on this game, cashed with PP and the over! Cheers!

G4P - trust me, you have no idea how important line movements are to me.  I was just wondering whether the line movement could be attributed to something external like key players injured, key players returning, etc.

And as I said above, the line movement bothered me b/c square bettors don't throw lots of $$ on a team that hasn't scored in 4 games. 

Still, this game was hardly reflective of a -170 favorite. PP was losing from the 10th minute til the 70th min.  Then got 2 quick goals - one involving a penalty kick.  But a win is a win. 

my friend ,


just 5 cents to the topic "line movements"


when it comes to soccer / football


check lines internationally , Europe / Asia


if the lines dont move over there


believe me

line movements over here in our sweet home USA

means   NOTHING

barb - which books do you check for line movements? I check pinnacle sports.  But they dont post odds for all matches (Costa Rica for instance)

5 dimes is a good site to check as well.

All the sharp books are good 5d bookmaker, legends, betfair, Asian books are especially good as well

Thanks everyone. 

NO trust in Nautico

Sport Recife - Gremio