AFCON...draws angle

Draws happen in this competition at about a 37% clip over the last 3 competitions during the group stage.

That is extremely high and if you watch the games you can see why.  It's not pretty football, there are generally very few goals, with many games finishing under 2.5 which leads to a higher probability of draws.

Based on the above you'd think the added component of cagey first rounds as teams try to get off to a good start would lead to a greater percentage of draws in the 1st round.  Incorrect.  Counterintuitively draws happen more often in the 2nd round.  We have just finished the 1st round and there was 1 draw, with almost every favourite (10 of 12) winning.  Highly improbable that run continues.  I see a good opportunity to start backing draws here and make some good coin.

From my analysis the value appears to be where favourites are priced between $1.50 and $2.00.  If you had followed this strategy across the last 3 tournaments you would have hit at a 50% clip.  That is a healthy profit on a ~$3+ bet (+200).  

Here are the games I will be targeting for those who want to play along at home...

1.Angola v Zimbawe - $1.81 fave
2.Egypt v South Africa - $1.92 fave
3.Morocco v Mali - $1.54 fave
4.Benin v Botswana - $1.72 fave
5.Sengal v Congo - $1.74 fave
6. Gabon v Mozambique - $1.94 fave
7. Algeria v Bakina Faso - $1.98 fave

Draws are all well over $3 here, so hitting just 2 would breakeven.

GL

10/11 AFCON matches so far have resulted in either home or away win. 9 in a row since Mali draw. 

Not to mention the prices on X result have been valueless. Hard to follow trends from previous cup years as so much changes on the international level. I do wish you GL 

Angola v Zimbawe 

Morocco v Mali 

We've hit the breakeven point already...just need 1 more draw for profit.

Senegal v Congo 

2.5 units of profit with 2 games today.

*2 games to go