2020 UCL KO Rounds.....

Leather, if youre out there. you were absolutely correct. Veratti IS out for the match and as I thought, it was an injury during training. and didnt realize PSG has a lot of missings for various reasons. Mbappe obviously getting the headlines but DiMaria suspended, most know Cavani already left the club, & 2 other regular defenders. h*ll, even their coach got hurt and was on crutches after training.

months ago a friend issued a challenge and someone took him up on it: 'none of the 'Power 5' winners will make the CL semis'. im pretty decent with stats, tho never bothered to look..... id have to imagine its been a LONG time since that ever happened (if ever). so thats 3 down and 2 to go. who would have thought..........

Pending:
Atalanta to win @+210
Atletico to win @+129

well, DeLaurentis lost his complaint, Catalan area has been hit HARD with new cases, & napoli club took some pretty deep Covid precautions.
Barca/Napoli - well, i called out the draw waay back earlier in this thread for the 1st leg; not sure if I want to do that again. im keenly aware of Barcas record in Camp Nou. after witnessing sloppy play from 3 'big boy' clubs last night im starting to wonder how 'far along' Barca is. i mean, they only beat ONE team whom finished in the top half of Liga table after the restart. with Lionel, their offensive schemes are heavily dependent on "timing". and long layoffs ruin timing. Barca DID beat Inter twice earlier this year, both with late goals; and the 1st leg ended level 1-1 which was rugby-style match. all 3 of those matches Barca held practically a 2/3 posession advantage, typical for them. for Napoli, theyre just an entirely different team from that nuclear implosion back in November. and with Insigne cleared to play Gattuso is going to do what he knows best, "muck-up-that-midfield-knock-you-down-and-hit-the-counter-hard" style; just not sure if thats going to be enough. but again, if Barca is Barca, and havent missed a beat things might go downhill quickly. with the juice on the btts almost as high as the O2.5, when youre looking at a road dog, those are not the numbers i want to be seeing. but with Dembele out, Umiti out, Busquets & Vidal suspended, and Griezmann not 100%..... yeah, I know.......... LIONEL.    what the heck,  taking a chance here, cause honestly dont know what to expect. Napoli does have the ability to find back of net.
taking a shot with Napoli +1/2 @+150, to Qualify @+250 for fun. and since it isnt juiced, toss a little on the btts + over 2.5 @+105 

Munich/Chelsea - with over a month off + 3 goal advantage + not needing to do anything.. the juice on the over is ridiculous; so are the outrights come to think of it. for Chelsea, losing the FA Cup last wknd has to be a big "downer". but they also lost their Captain, lost Pulisic, and have several others on the treatment table. and im not EPL "expert", but those 54 goals conceded are an eyesore for someone whom finished in the top 4, looks ridicuously high coming from the EPL. Pool had nothing to play for yet still banged in 5 vs them just a few weeks ago. so, with the +1.5 juiced, there is zero value to me to back them here, not in Allianz. as mentioned above, Munich doesnt play behind the ball at home. they "protect" leads by shoving their foots down your throat, or try to. heading to the props, need to knock down that juice: over 1.5 goals in both halves @+250

GL to all 

Spec, I'm in Vegas and odds are extremely limited.  Based on your Bayern/Chelsea write up, I can play o3.5 Even make sense?

Hey spec! How do you feel about Sarri getting fired?! This excites me for next year for Juve. 

719, the 3.5 is juiced. and I dont like that in this scenario. my biggest fear would be if munich is leading 1-0 or 2-0 at the half. 2nd half Chelsea will roll over, munich will take their foot off the gas, why risk injury?   so yeah, my play obviously calls for 4 goals, but if it blows up on me id rather get a 250 for that than paying juice. 

Lego,   good to see you around, hope all has been well.   yeah, as you can imagine, thats dominated the news all day.  in defense of him hey, we did win another Scudetto, banged in 2 per game, and when you lose your Captain and one of the best defenders to ever put on our jersey in 1st week of season, it forced him to change all his plans. but the things that didnt sit well with higher ups was the fact that he let Christian make the decision to suit up or not. doesnt matter how good you are, out here, the coach IS the coach. theres a reason all the top coaches in europe have that sentence in their contract giving them complete control over the day to day decisions. and his decision was to let Christian decide?  not good.  thats in a nutshell.  using Paulo as a sub was probably his 3rd biggest mistake, after tactics & game management (but lets not talk about that) our defense was its worst in 15 years, but I let that slide cause of Giorgio.   forget the loss last night for a second.  now i didnt know the extent of Dybalas injury,  he did get hurt in practice. and yeah, we did need that 3rd goal.  but to see him pull up just minutes into, you notice Gonzos reaction? theyre Gaucho teammates, he immediately turned to the bench making the sub sign. mustve heard something which didnt sound good.  Sarri HAD to have know the extent of his injury, theres no way around that, to put him in there?  thats the stuff people were talking about but with everything that has gone on, many (self included) just dont really care un-like previous seasons. 

well, just nail that coffin shut. Juve has always been quick to accomodate, in a way its what made us successful. if you dont want to be here? if your complaining about minutes?   boom! your name is on the transfer market. a little brutal but thats what we do.  higher ups also dont like drama, we get enough of that every year as it is. that rift between mgmt /coach, keeping Sarri would just create a godda*mn circus next year. look what it did to Napoli and Ancellotti,  Milan with Gattuso. 

so im glad he got sacked.   lets get on with life 

Spec 

Jeez and now they hire Pirlo as the new manager! This excites me as well. Loved Pirlo as a player. 

Thank You Spec! It is unfortunate that American Books haven't fully embraced Soccer. $500 limit on a Champions League Match, Really? Also very few offerings/options. 

Leather 

Leggo  "GOD" is home. but im not quite sure if thats a good thing. ill get my thoughts up in a bit...

pj i understand. having multiple places surely could help tilt the scales in your favor

firstly, ill put the Serie B in here as I dont want to create another thread.

Serie B 2nd leg, Pord with a 1-0 advantage
Pordenone/Frosinone - similar to last nights (i still dont know what happened to that writeup). Pord not only at home, but they also have the advantage. and keeping in mind, there is no "away goal" rule. if clubs are level with total goals scored then the team whom finished higher in the table advances. in this case Pordenone again, has the advantage. so, youre at home, with a 1 goal lead and dont even have to draw to advance? fyi, the line in itself is a "tell" it has come down from the 200s when opened. but, as always, the politics come into play here. Pord waaay up there near the northern border whilst Fros hails from down there south of Rome. im not even going to get into this sh*t. did honestly give mention to it yesterday, and last night Chievo awareded a PK in the 93rd minute which allowed them to pull level on goals and ended up advancing. ehhh, anyways.... Frosinone to win @+170, and throw some on the O2.5 @+125, a team whom has been cleansheeted at home just 3 times all eyar long vs an opponent whom needs bare minimum of 2 to advance? ill take the "+" on this. 7 goals in their H2H as well this season.

Pending:
Atalanta to win @+210 - didnt even need to cap this one. but decided to break this down anyways as a few asked. 

Atalanta/PSG - line is flying since mbappes announcement. on paper, Atalanta couldnt have asked for a better opponent at this stage; one with a below average backline whom likes to run up & down the pitch. plays to Atalantas strengths. but heres the thing with Gasperini , tho they may have banged in an insane amount of goals this year. vs the big teams.....Gasperini has shown a reluctance to run: Roma scoreless at half. blew 3 goal lead vs Lazio. 1 goal scoreless at half in loss to Juve. one goal draw vs Inter. and post Covid they were held to just 5 goals in the 4 matches vs inter/juve,napoli/milan. and in the two games vs City, the Serie A side managed just 6 & 2 shots on target and losing possession battle in both. the previous season when they led Serie A in goals they again were held to just 2 goals vs Juve/Inter/Lazio/Napoli in their travels. Gasperini had his boys in the Coppa Italia Final last year, cleansheeted and put just 2 shots on target. this isnt simply 'bad luck' this is a coach whom is 'caught in the moment' the experience just isnt there yet. but thats just my opinion. if Atalanta stops THINKING and just REACTS, they will tear PSG apart. but him not pairing Muriel up front with Duvan pretty much supports everything I just type above. but i am suprised at the media not mentioning Ilcics absence; this is a huge, huge, HUGE blow to Atalanta as he is a large part of what Gasperini wants to do. you just dont bang in 4 on the road in a 2nd leg elimination match on pure luck. enough on that. but i woudnt consider it an "upset" if they advance.

PSG: people saying PSG has the edge in experience, perhaps, but everyone knows Cavani no longer there, DiMaria suspended, Veratti out, along with 2 other defenders. all that "experience" will not be on the pitch. so to me, its a moot point. and no coaching advantage either, Tuchel has never gotten past the Qtrs whilst Gasperini has a habit of letting the moment get to him.
and tho I dont expect anyone to go back find the comment in the encyclopedia of posts above, one of the things i mentioned when they wer playing Dort was that PSG has been god-awful on the road in the UCLs vs Power 5 opponents the past 4 years. the mid-tier clubs? they kick into the Atlantic. Big-boy clubs??? they just have 2 wins in something like 15 matches (both wins were EPL sides) PSG is 2W-4D-9L on the road vs Liga/Bunde/Serie/EPL. they consistently just cant seem to get over the hill vs opponents of = skillsets. and i dont know the status of Mbappe, regardless, he CANT be 100%. and I just hope he doesnt re-injure. but him not there? PSGs vertical game disappears and they end up playing "sideways". Flopper will end up holding the ball 2 seconds too long giving defenses time to get back into position. if Mbappe is in there? the backline has to constantly worry about him getting behind you, and this opens up space in midfield.
I hit BOTH "unders" when they played Dortmund, but this is a one-off. and mentioned before, one-offs have to be capped differently. if im going to take an under in this scenario basically my melon is hoping the match is level @ the 70th minute mark. cause if either has the lead at the 70th it means kitchen-sink-forward time for someone. and with these two thats a scary thought because both also have ZERO problems extending the their lead to 2 if given the chance. this is one to sit back and enjoy, which is exactly what I will do. and hope to some good futbol after extended breaks. PASS.

Have you thought about starting new thread for every game you may or may not play?

Win big buds.

congratulations Ben.   you just got me going.   i hope youre happy with yourself 

i- ll put one up with pre-game thoughts.   

- then put one up with actual plays.

-then come in at the half and tell everyone what happened..... just in case some dont have televisions or internet connections. (but then again..... if you dont have an internet connection then you wouldnt be in here in the first place).

-then ill post thoughts on possible plays.   

-then another one with real plays. 

- and then at the end... ill give everyone a recap of what happened. and announced the plays i never posted. pat self on back cause I am GOD. 

- and for an extra bonus.... ill even come in and congratulate everyone else too. (but honestly... i just wanted to let everyone know I won that match)

did I miss anything Ben?     

Frosinone

Was on it too,

Ben , apologies, as re-read this again, kind of got off the track there. after seeing some of the 'quieter' types whom ive gotten to know/respect in this forum feeling the need to go 'off-topic' this week venting and away from futbol stuff so I guess im not the only one. this site needs a mod in here. when returned last month, one of the first things i typed up after looking at the place was how the maturity level has gone down a few decades since Feb. but had no idea it'd be this bad. lets get back on track here.

Make , appreciate it. yeah, Serie B playoffs have played out in a manner which has made it easy pickings. wont always be that way. was hoping to get one more but that 80+ minute bus-park .... already put tmrws in, will get that up in the wknd thread. by the way, not sure how much you know of this youngster, but Inter about set to sign Tonali. trust me on this. the kid is good. the media always quick to put them on pedestals, but every 4-5 years someone comes up through the youth ranks deserving of the praise. he's one of them

Frosinone to win @+170, O2.5 @+125 (W, L)
Atalanta to win @+210 (L)

better team won, plain & simple. kind of felt a lot of sloppy play, but the result should never of had to wait till injury time. Flopper had an awful game but got to give him props for not giving up & Gasps side showed their lack of experience. onwards.  

Pending:
Madrid to win @+129 - actually had made this play a while back. not in mood to re-type, will just cut/paste from earlier in this thread. short & simple:

"...but its a one-off, single elim format. give Diego 3 days - never mind one month for Leipzig match - to prepare for anyone without any distractions and... ya just have to like their chances. what he did to Pool in 1st leg was a masterpiece. tho that was @home. but thats his MO, best defensive strategist in europe."
"Leipzing/Madrid - should take them to qualify and avoid the risk of this finishing level but ill take the chance. giving me '+' money with Diego getting 3 weeks to prepare for an inferior opponent? OK, ill bite."

Hey Boll, if ur out there...... I still remember that convo we had a while back regarding Diego (not the coach, the OTHER ONE. laughing ) so lets just agree to disagree and leave it there. aside from that **** piece of human flesh I wouldnt say Atletico is a "dirty" team. but they DO take on their coaches personality.
and they are a NASTY lot. "throwbacks" to a time period in which we both loved where guys would run over their own grandmothers if she got in the way.
I miss those days. but we've played these guys FOUR times in the UCL the past 15 months and lets just say Ive had my fill.

now Leipzig may very well advance, but in the past two years alone, Simeone has played Barca/Real/Juventus/Pool/Dort, and without trying to super-exaggerate anything, quite possibly the best --- and most importantly ---- EXPERIENCED collection of offensive talent in europe a total of 11 games. Atletico conceded just 12 goals and cleansheeted all of them at least once. and tho this is a screwed-up season, dont quite understand those in the media whom saying Atleticos defense is weaker - people forget Atletico lost the "brains" of their backline - Godin, if you think hes lost a step? go check Inters defensive stats this year - yet STILL Atletico conceded just 27 in Liga. fyi.... fewer than the previous season. so statistically, they are even better.

For those backing the German side, theres hope tho, Atletico Madrid, under Simeone , in the KO stages of this comp have won just 4 of the 10 matches where they went off as the favorite . And with single elims being the nature that they are? ehhh.... +250 is value I'd suppose. though they finished 3rd in Bunde I think they advanced out of Groups by "default" being put in such a weak group, and beating a depleted Tott side wasnt as impressive as it looks on paper. but no way am I fading Diego in this spot.   we'll see how this turns out. 

GL to all 

Spec

Having a pre game bet on sideYou must be some sort of sorcerer.

put these in already... might as well post them while here:

Munich/Barca - jumped on this one. back with writeup later. Munich to win @+110

ManC/Lyon - 3.5's are typically a big "no-no" for me at this stage of the tourney. but jumped on this already. French side faced a slow, plodding, and actually.... terrible... midfield booting my guys out last weekend. they get no such luxury this time around. and City "should" be keen to remember getting beat @Etihad by these guys during group stages last year, & actually held to a 2-2 draw in reverse leg. and add to the fact that Lyon have been cleansheeted just ONCE on the road in this comp the past 2 years (8 matches) shows their ability to find the net. while City has just two cleansheets in their 9 roadies during the same amount of time makes this look even better. ManC/Lyon over 3.5 @+150 400s on outrights in a UCL Qtr is a huuuge joke. for anyone so not touching the sides.

atalanta almost had it but released in 5min. 

still good call tho.

Frosinone to win. 

Yes! Sandro Tonali I've been following him since he burst onto the scene...very talented player would've thought Pirlo would provide competition to his signature considering they have similar playing styles but for sure can see him later on maturing his game into Pirlos.

Would fit in well with Internazionales midfield, providing the class and elegance with runners such as Brozovic & Barella (Whom I'm a big BIG fan of) think he will link up well with Eriksen, can't wait to see him great peice of business.

Conte is building a monster of a team, and the Italian midfield will prosper in the coming years.

Great win, great write-ups all the best mate with your plays

GOOD TO SEE YOU SPEC!!! Glad you are well and still givin the goods brutha

I took Atletico moneyline and Atletico to win to nil without even thinking twice. If it loses, Ill gladly eat it. Los Colchones are in it to win it this year.

make    running out of tiime, match about to start. remind me about Tonali.    yes, the Pirlo reference is real.  saw ur thread on Pirlo, elected to stay out of it, dont take this the wrong way (especially with everything going on this week in here) simply cause I wasnt sure of your maturity level.  but if you dont mind I could use your thread to reply as  few have asked me my thoughts (which Ive delayed for 3-4 days). as now i can see you wont drag it into some grade-school food fight.   just let me know. 

doc  as always.   hope I can squeeze one last 1-0 out of him 

General, as always good to see you around and hope all has been well for yourself and family.   tks for stopping by.  

GL tonight fellas.   

Atletico Madrid to win @+129 (L) ill eat this loss. 

tho not sure i understand Diegos decision to start Costa, hats off to Leipzig, they played exceptionally well I thought considering the time off.  you create your own chances and they did.on to tomorrow 

All good mate you like old ladys then meaning Juventus supporter for any sick perverts out there....

Geez Make,   boll going to have a field day with that comment.   thanks a lot.  i better go get that scottish flag up in here before he sees this. tks fer stopping by and on to tmrw. 

all is forgiven once we finally get the much awaited Pirlo synopsis. 

Impressed by the germans. Well deserved victory. Its baffling to me that you pay 120+ million for a difference-maker and refuse to let the kid shine. Joao Felix made a HUGE impact for Atletico. Simeone overthought that move in not starting him. These are the matches Joao Felix was bought to play in. He looked more than confident out there and was the only bright spot in 2nd half for Atletico. Cant help but think how things may have gone differently had Joao been there from beginning. Lots of 2nd guessing but it was a great game either way. Impressive showing RB