1. Celta Vigo/Granada 1H over 1 (-120): I mentioned before I look for spots such as fixtures involving teams that haven’t scored/conceded in multiple matches. Another spot I like? Fixtures that follow goalless games, especially if they involve teams that aren’t severely offensively challenged and/or feature leaky defenses. Celta Vigo coming off a goalless draw at home against a Granada side that gives up 2+ goals/match fits the bill. By the way, Granada has been down at halftime in 7 out of its’ 8 road matches so far. The only time it wasn’t was against Las Palmas. Sure, Celta Vigo’s position in the standings is far worse than Las Palmas, but it has better quality up front in Aspas and Larsen. The last time Granada faced a fellow relegation-battling side on the road? It was down 3-0 at halftime to Almeria.
2. Lecce/Frosinone 1H over 1 (even): Been paying attention to matches involving Frosinone as they seem to usually involve goals. Out of the teams in the bottom half of the table, it only trails Sassuolo in GF/GA w/ 44 total, which actually is good for a tie w/ the likes of both Milan clubs and one behind Roma (that’s surprising). Now it’s coming of a goalless draw against Torino against a team it hasn’t scored against in 3 consecutive fixtures. Really liking Frosinone's 1H over 0.5 at +142 as I expect btts here but going to lay off. For now. Last time Frosinone had a goalless draw, it followed that up w/ a 4-2 shootout that featured 3 goals in the 1H. Oh and Lecce has had 2 consecutive 0-0 scorelines at halftime. Just a lot to like here at even $.
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Overall Record: 26-26-17
Week Record: 4-3-3
1. Celta Vigo/Granada 1H over 1 (-120): I mentioned before I look for spots such as fixtures involving teams that haven’t scored/conceded in multiple matches. Another spot I like? Fixtures that follow goalless games, especially if they involve teams that aren’t severely offensively challenged and/or feature leaky defenses. Celta Vigo coming off a goalless draw at home against a Granada side that gives up 2+ goals/match fits the bill. By the way, Granada has been down at halftime in 7 out of its’ 8 road matches so far. The only time it wasn’t was against Las Palmas. Sure, Celta Vigo’s position in the standings is far worse than Las Palmas, but it has better quality up front in Aspas and Larsen. The last time Granada faced a fellow relegation-battling side on the road? It was down 3-0 at halftime to Almeria.
2. Lecce/Frosinone 1H over 1 (even): Been paying attention to matches involving Frosinone as they seem to usually involve goals. Out of the teams in the bottom half of the table, it only trails Sassuolo in GF/GA w/ 44 total, which actually is good for a tie w/ the likes of both Milan clubs and one behind Roma (that’s surprising). Now it’s coming of a goalless draw against Torino against a team it hasn’t scored against in 3 consecutive fixtures. Really liking Frosinone's 1H over 0.5 at +142 as I expect btts here but going to lay off. For now. Last time Frosinone had a goalless draw, it followed that up w/ a 4-2 shootout that featured 3 goals in the 1H. Oh and Lecce has had 2 consecutive 0-0 scorelines at halftime. Just a lot to like here at even $.
3. and 4. Darmstadt/Wolfsburg 1H over (-125), Wolfsburg 1H over 0.5 (-120): Wolfsburg hasn’t found the net in 225 minutes; Darmstadt didn’t tally in its’ last 2 home games after getting on the board in the 1H of its’ first 5 home matches, all of which featured 2+ goals and 4/5 featuring both teams scoring. Wolfsburg has enough quality up front to halt its’ scoring drought, especially against the team leading the league in GA.
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3. and 4. Darmstadt/Wolfsburg 1H over (-125), Wolfsburg 1H over 0.5 (-120): Wolfsburg hasn’t found the net in 225 minutes; Darmstadt didn’t tally in its’ last 2 home games after getting on the board in the 1H of its’ first 5 home matches, all of which featured 2+ goals and 4/5 featuring both teams scoring. Wolfsburg has enough quality up front to halt its’ scoring drought, especially against the team leading the league in GA.
5. Chelsea/Sheffield United 1H over 1 (taking live): Sheffield just made the EPL’s first managerial change of the season, but we know what to expect of Sheffield under Chris Wilder given he managed this team from 2016-2021 before he parted w/ the club pretty much sentenced to relegation. In the 4 matches he’s managed against Chelsea, Sheffield scored in all w/ all featuring 3+ goals. Oh and Chelsea got shutout last match, the first since its’ offensive metrics really took off this season.
Also wanted to make a comment regarding these 1H total bets since they can tend to push a lot. Sometimes I’ll take the live on the over 0.75 or 0.5 based on in-game stats so that I can at least get something out of a 1 goal half. Just something to consider.
And there’s the 1H goal by Frosinone smh.
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5. Chelsea/Sheffield United 1H over 1 (taking live): Sheffield just made the EPL’s first managerial change of the season, but we know what to expect of Sheffield under Chris Wilder given he managed this team from 2016-2021 before he parted w/ the club pretty much sentenced to relegation. In the 4 matches he’s managed against Chelsea, Sheffield scored in all w/ all featuring 3+ goals. Oh and Chelsea got shutout last match, the first since its’ offensive metrics really took off this season.
Also wanted to make a comment regarding these 1H total bets since they can tend to push a lot. Sometimes I’ll take the live on the over 0.75 or 0.5 based on in-game stats so that I can at least get something out of a 1 goal half. Just something to consider.
Nice call! Premier League is crazy lol I was staring at the Crystal Palace over 1.5 live at +900 and was like no way smh Something very off w/ City this year what do you think?
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@Martylee
Nice call! Premier League is crazy lol I was staring at the Crystal Palace over 1.5 live at +900 and was like no way smh Something very off w/ City this year what do you think?
Been keeping track of plays overall and seems like I can't get a handle on Bundesliga. May need to lessen the plays in that league. Hoping to turn it around here.
6 and 7. Burnley/Everton 1H over 1 (+100), Burnley 1H over 0.5 (+135): Numbers/trends play on Wolfsburg didn't work out unfortunately, but I firmly believe they do hold up in the long run (Wolfsburg did eventually score even w/ a man down). With that said, since giving up 3 to ManU, Everton hasn't given up a goal in 3 straight games. Just think the law of averages always wins out so taking a shot on Burnley to break Everton's streak, especially w/ 1st choice CB Jarrad Branthwaite out. Also, w/ EPL goalscoring at a record high, will gladly take pregame even money odds on a goal to feature in the 1H.
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Overall Record: 27-29-18
Week Record: 5-6-4
Been keeping track of plays overall and seems like I can't get a handle on Bundesliga. May need to lessen the plays in that league. Hoping to turn it around here.
6 and 7. Burnley/Everton 1H over 1 (+100), Burnley 1H over 0.5 (+135): Numbers/trends play on Wolfsburg didn't work out unfortunately, but I firmly believe they do hold up in the long run (Wolfsburg did eventually score even w/ a man down). With that said, since giving up 3 to ManU, Everton hasn't given up a goal in 3 straight games. Just think the law of averages always wins out so taking a shot on Burnley to break Everton's streak, especially w/ 1st choice CB Jarrad Branthwaite out. Also, w/ EPL goalscoring at a record high, will gladly take pregame even money odds on a goal to feature in the 1H.
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