Posted:
#26
canada women beat 36-19 france women last week...
then usa women beat 20-18 canada women last week too..
hmm...how come use women +16.5...
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rugby YTD 18-15 +3.348 @ 10% yield / week starting 10th july
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by OvalBall:
bookies woudlnt use last rounds result for usa to determine a cap line, they would be using their results for long time back versus france results
thats the good things of some sports...past resutls not usefull to make caps..
look today last 3 netball totals..gone under..
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for me today...
Posted:
#31
ok, you got my time target, rugby cap lines, bookies priduce the cap lines with minimal effort, simple calculation of a teams previous results against the opponent, whats the average score ? they might then cross that with the teams scores at home versus the away teams away scores etc, bottomline, whats the avergae result, thats the cap,
rarely these days are they waiting for a teamsheet, thats usually just something like the euro challenge cup, which is different becuase there will be a lot of squad rotation, but again, they will be working from a stats average.
i dont bother with teamsheets and stats averages, thats the work of the bookie, you arent going to come up with stats that give you the edge. i will look at teamsheets when the bookies are also waiting to see teamsheets before publihsing their cap line. and remember, professional teams have a squad of coaches etc that pick the teams, so leave all that to them. trying to be clever isnt going to get a punter a consistent edge.
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Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by OvalBall:
ok, you got my time target, rugby cap lines, bookies priduce the cap lines with minimal effort, simple calculation of a teams previous results against the opponent, whats the average score ? they might then cross that with the teams scores at home versus the away teams away scores etc, bottomline, whats the avergae result, thats the cap, rarely these days are they waiting for a teamsheet, thats usually just something like the euro challenge cup, which is different becuase there will be a lot of squad rotation, but again, they will be working from a stats average. i dont bother with teamsheets and stats averages, thats the work of the bookie, you arent going to come up with stats that give you the edge. i will look at teamsheets when the bookies are also waiting to see teamsheets before publihsing their cap line. and remember, professional teams have a squad of coaches etc that pick the teams, so leave all that to them. trying to be clever isnt going to get a punter a consistent edge.
i rarely look at markets like points over, so im really just focused on the cap, the moneyline and the win magin. some competitions, fixtrues, circumstances i will look at the team try market if i know they need or want a try bonus, and thats a lot easier to do when its the 4 tries is a tbp rather than finish three tries in front. therefore, if someone is about the pts ov/under market, then they will have a different approach with regards stats, but again, the bookies have computer prigrams for all these markets so imho its a fruitless task trying to out stat them.
ok, you got my time target, rugby cap lines, bookies priduce the cap lines with minimal effort, simple calculation of a teams previous results against the opponent, whats the average score ? they might then cross that with the teams scores at home versus the away teams away scores etc, bottomline, whats the avergae result, thats the cap, rarely these days are they waiting for a teamsheet, thats usually just something like the euro challenge cup, which is different becuase there will be a lot of squad rotation, but again, they will be working from a stats average. i dont bother with teamsheets and stats averages, thats the work of the bookie, you arent going to come up with stats that give you the edge. i will look at teamsheets when the bookies are also waiting to see teamsheets before publihsing their cap line. and remember, professional teams have a squad of coaches etc that pick the teams, so leave all that to them. trying to be clever isnt going to get a punter a consistent edge.
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