First of all
NZ Warriors vs Canberra Raiders
It is hard not to feel sorry for the Warriors. The coronavirus has impacted sport across the globe but in Rugby League terms, it has hit the Warriors most of all. Peta Hiku and Patrick Herbert have returned to New Zealand. The team has been stuck in Australia, forced to find accommodation on the Central Coast and then play a home game on the Gold Coast.
This is a bad situation for the Warriors, who are hardly known for their resilience. Against a Canberra team that can run up a score.
The Warriors stunned the Raiders 24-20 when the teams last met in Round 25 last year in Canberra. New Zealand have now won three of the last four meetings after being beaten by 12-plus in four straight. The Warriors have covered 9 of the last 14 meetings. It won’t be enough though, particularly after two contrasting Round 1 showings. The Raiders have scored at least 19 points in seven of eight meetings against the Warriors.
Canberra have covered 25 of 39 away from Canberra Stadium and have covered 14 of 23 off a double digit win. The Warriors have covered just two of eight getting a double digit start.
* Total Match PointsEach of Canberra's last eight matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.Includes extra time.
* LineNew Zealand has covered the line in seven of its last eight day matches against Canberra.Includes extra time.
Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles
The premiers are staring down the barrel of back-to-back losses to open the season when they face a difficult matchup against Manly.
The Sydney Roosters were beaten as road favourites of 4.5 points against Penrith in Round 1. The Roosters lost 20-14 after leading early. Manly led Melbourne 4-2 with only a quarter of their home game to go before losing 18-4 to their rivals. Both would have been disappointed with the loss but Manly were without question more impressive.
The Roosters have won the last three against the Sea Eagles but Manly are one of the top plays in the NRL when an underdog.
Manly are 29-15 ATS as an underdog over the last three years and are 18-8 ATS getting 4 or more points. Manly have covered 11 of 15 away from Brookvale as an underdog.
Manly are legit title contenders this year and will be looking to make a statement early in a game where the betting is very disrespectful.
Total Match PointsEach of Sydney's last six matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.Includes extra time.
Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm
The Wolf is all over the Melbourne Storm to win the premiership but is very confident Cronulla can run them close and perhaps even pull off the upset this week at Cronulla’s new home base of Jubilee Stadium.
Cronulla have a strong recent record against Melbourne with six wins in their last 10 meetings including the 2016 Grand Final. The Storm won the last meeting 40-16 but have not won two straight against Cronulla since 2015. Cronulla have won four of the last five against Melbourne in Sydney.
The Sharks are the play though based on the uber-reliable angle of big home underdogs early in the season. Home underdogs of 4 or more in the first four rounds of the year have covered 46 of 64 since 2008. That is enough for The Wolf.
The under is also a play in this one. Only one of the last 11 meetings have topped 38 points. The under is 15-6 in Storm-Sharks games since 2008. The under is 25-17 when Cronulla are away from Shark Park and is 16-7 when the Sharks are an underdog away from Shark Park. The under has hit in 9 of 14 Storm interstate night games and is 33-22 when the Storm are favoured by 4.5 or more.
* Head to HeadMelbourne has won each of its last nine matches as an away favourite
Lets looks AFL
Essondon vs Fremantle
Essendon will be hoping to play finals again in 2020 after sneaking into the top eight last season, before losing to the Eagles by 10 goals in an elimination final.
They host the other West Australian team, the Fremantle Dockers ($2.85) on Saturday at Marvel Stadium, with the Bombers short priced favourites ($1.45) to continue their dominance against Freo in Melbourne.
Essendon has lost only once to Fremantle at Docklands in 13 matches and that was in 2010.
The Dons’ pre season was marred by Joe Daniher’s will he, won’t he trade to Sydney, but the big man won’t be lacing up this week as he is out with an injured groin.
The Dockers aren’t expected to make finals and are just 1-4 at Marvel Stadium since 2018, so The Wolf expects the Bombers to get their season off to a winning start.
* Head to HeadEssendon has won 12 of its last 13 home matches against Fremantle.
* LineThe underdog has covered the line in each of the last five matches between Essendon and Fremantle.
Adelaide vs Sydney
Swans to upset Crows
Neither the Crows nor the Swans are expected to figure at the pointy end of the 2020 season, with Adelaide ($51) and Sydney ($61) both big premiership outsiders.
They can give their fans something to sing about early in the season though when the two sides meet at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday.
The Adelaide venue has been a relatively friendly one for the Swans, who have won 4 of 6 matches played at the ground, including 2 of 3 against the Crows.
The Sydneysiders will be without gun forward Lance Franklin for this match, so will rely on youngsters such as Tom McCartin and Will Hayward to hit the scoreboard with regularlity.
The Wolf isn’t bullish about either of these teams in 2020, but the Crows were 6-6 at home last season and are far from certainties, with the value laying squarely with the red and the white.
Best Bet: Swans ($2.15)
* Sydney (+5.5) - Line
The underdog has covered the line in 10 of Adelaide's last 11 day matches at the Adelaide Oval.
* Over (144.5) - Total Game Points - Over/Under
Each of Adelaide's last four matches have gone OVER the total match points line.
First in bird account
Beteasywolf - he has alot of information.
For other trends i go to sportsbet.com.au. Under quick links, choose NRL or AFL.
Click the game and click 'stats & insights' betting insights.
You can the movements and see where is sharp money.
Nothing is guaranteed but noticed this last night
Panthers vs Dragons
Many were betting on Panthers but sportsbet had +4.5 and ladbroke had +5.5 if panther is favourite why line(spread) didnt move? Picked Dragons +4.5
Collingwood vs bulldogs... Public was all over bulldogs but sportsbet and Ladbroke had different odd.
Collingwood smashed bulldogs...
Easy muti(parlay) winner...i posted these two.
Now i see similar thing tonight...
Just keep watching nothing is guaranteed but at least we can learn from it..
Perhaps i was over thinking? Current score 25-7 in Essendon favour.
Maybe it was free money?...
Next NZ Warriors vs Canberra Raiders
Public is hammering Raiders but line
Sportsbet -13.5
Ladbroke -12.5
Why?
Canberra line up is too talented on forward and backline. In the backline NZ only have advantage on fullback other than that looks very weak. NZ was probably disrupted with all the news about Corona virus
So from mynoverthinking analysis im gonna pass
Im gonna tail target here as he seem to be on money..
Tailing for some degenerate action...
Damn it loss...if you watch the game rooster should have score 14 at least but they didnt so.move on
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
