Cows 20-6 SU (18-8 ATS) as a home fave and a 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) as a double-digit home fave.
Chooks own the Dragons of late, 5-1 SU last 6 with all 5 wins by 8 or more (last 4 straight by 13+).
Dragons are 0-6 against the top five teams this year with an average losing margin of 17.33 points.
Under Trent Robinson, the Roosters are 17-7 (15-9 ATS) at Allianz Stadium with an average winning margin of 15 points. When favoured by more than a converted try at the ground, the Roosters are 13-4 (11-6 ATS).
Home faves of more than a converted try off a close loss are 37-11 SU since 2011.
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Went with the 'numbers' T2M...
Titans 1-4 SU and ATS last 5 'away' in QLD.
Cows 20-6 SU (18-8 ATS) as a home fave and a 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) as a double-digit home fave.
Chooks own the Dragons of late, 5-1 SU last 6 with all 5 wins by 8 or more (last 4 straight by 13+).
Dragons are 0-6 against the top five teams this year with an average losing margin of 17.33 points.
Under Trent Robinson, the Roosters are 17-7 (15-9 ATS) at Allianz Stadium with an average winning margin of 15 points. When favoured by more than a converted try at the ground, the Roosters are 13-4 (11-6 ATS).
Home faves of more than a converted try off a close loss are 37-11 SU since 2011.
One team can't win at home, the other struggles on the road. Much like Parramatta yesterday, if the Warriors don't win here then they don't deserve to play finals footy. Have to play the 'better' team with more incentives today regardless of their shitty record in the Aussie capital. Raiders are the worst 'statistical' team in the NRL coupled with the worst overall defense in the NRL. NZ played relatively well even in a loss vs the best current team in league last week minus their best player and having that game without Johnson should help them this afternoon having to play again without him. Spread opened at 4 and has only moved a half-point with the Johnson news.
Lean Bunnies in the other game but not sure I can take a banged-up team traveling quite a distance on a short week. Line also seems a few points too short.
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adding...
New Zealand Warriors at Canberra Raiders
The play...
Warriors ML (3.2 to win 2)
One team can't win at home, the other struggles on the road. Much like Parramatta yesterday, if the Warriors don't win here then they don't deserve to play finals footy. Have to play the 'better' team with more incentives today regardless of their shitty record in the Aussie capital. Raiders are the worst 'statistical' team in the NRL coupled with the worst overall defense in the NRL. NZ played relatively well even in a loss vs the best current team in league last week minus their best player and having that game without Johnson should help them this afternoon having to play again without him. Spread opened at 4 and has only moved a half-point with the Johnson news.
Lean Bunnies in the other game but not sure I can take a banged-up team traveling quite a distance on a short week. Line also seems a few points too short.
Can't back a club whose captain is a massive 'mitch'.
Storm a shitty road favorite though (haven't cover a road spread of 6 or more since 2012), just think they're gelling at the right time and will be hard to beat for a 2nd tier club like the Tigers. Loss tonight knocks Melbourne outta the 8. Last I heard Brooks was hobbled also.
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Monday night footy...
Storm -6.5 (2 units)
Reduced line at $1.62
Can't back a club whose captain is a massive 'mitch'.
Storm a shitty road favorite though (haven't cover a road spread of 6 or more since 2012), just think they're gelling at the right time and will be hard to beat for a 2nd tier club like the Tigers. Loss tonight knocks Melbourne outta the 8. Last I heard Brooks was hobbled also.