Breezys NRL and AFL finals compilation.

Instead of doing a thread every week of the finals, I will just have it all in here. Fucked record, will update later. Based on this year you make good money fading me so go ahead.

Goal for the finals is to hit 80%. Will start off tonight by playing

West Coast Eagles 1-39 vs Western Bulldogs (1.97).

Bulldogs have got some massive names back but all are coming off a injury (actually I tell a lie, stringer isn't). I hate using historical stats as a case for my bets because there is zero coloration usually, however I will mention this.

The Eagles have only lost 2 finals at home in their entire history of the club. This is against the very best other teams. That just goes to show how much of an advantage Perth is for the Eagles and the bigger ground. Bulldogs have played tough al year and if any team in this final series deserves to be there, it is the Bulldogs. But at home after defeating the top 3 teams in the last month has me pretty confident Eagles can atleast get a victory. I expect Bulldogs to keep it pretty close.

Bulldogs +23.5 isn't bad. Wish there was like an extra goal or something so I could get +29.5, actually over 30 would be cool. But yeah I expect a somewhat close game.

Gl to all.

what the hell happend to west coast today.. wow.. you right plus was the play.. 

No idea T2. As an Eagles supporter I can easily admit that it was their most disappointing performance since the 2007 finals. Didn't execute our normal gameplan, didn't play attacking footy, didn't go through the middle. The one time we did go through the middle it was to a 1 on 4 and they get a goal straight away from the turnover. Didn't have enough runners, went too tall.

Can't take anything away from the dogs, they played awesome.

Great win by you t2. Hopefully I can join you on the winners circle tomorrow.

Wtf am I seeing with Geelong still in the 1.60 range. I think they have been the best team all year and hawthorn are overrated because they really don't have one of their best players out there in roughead.

Geelong ml vs Hawthorn (1.63)
Geelomg 1-39 vs hawthorn (2.09)

Broncos -9.5 vs Gold Coast Titans (1.90)

Broncos ml / Geelong ml (2.11)

Swans line still coming in! What. Absolutely love the swans today. So much more experienced, better midfield and forward line. Been playing without Tippet for the second half of the year and he adds a lot to the team, I don't think many people have factored that in.

Sydney swans -11.5 vs GWS Giants (1.95)

North Melbourne + 39.5 @ Adelaide (1.95)

Cowboys +2.5 vs Melbourne Storm (1.90)

f... these afl killing us EEZY..  good luck even  i bet same as you

Good luck to you, been cold as hell so anyone on the same side of me should be scared.

Canterbury +5.5 vs Penrith (1.90)
Canterbury ML vs Penrith (2.60)

Apart from the last little bit of the season, the panthers couldn't defeat anyone by a big margin, if they do win it should be close. Bulldogs without a few men but it was only two weeks ago people were saying they could make top 4. Bulldogs have a better team regardless.

Penrith Oanthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs- under 41.5 (1.90)

4-1 on Friday, finish on 5-6. Looking back at it I would still take all the same picks. Can't believe Sydney lost to GWS still. Cowboys didn't get the calls Storm were getting. North Mlebourne just didn't captalise in the first half and once the lead got over 5 goals it was always going to be a wash. Bulldogs just did bulldog things, probably my biggest regret.

Start again next week.

You don't get the Hawks at this price very much. I know I called them overrated last week, which they are, but they are still one of the teams to beat. Their small forwards just do shit and the backman get shit done 24/7. It's mainly their midfield, as good as it is, that decides whether they dominate or not.

Bulldogs a young hungry team but Hawks with the experience I think gets them over the line. Game is at the MCG and yes whole it is in Melbourne, it's not a ground that advantages the dogs. They play a lot better at etihad. Been to Perth 2 of the last 3 weeks so they have still travelled a lot more than the Hawks. Rooting for the Bulldogs but gotta place money on the smart choice.

Hawks ml vs western Bulldogs (1.56)
Hawks -9.5 vs Bulldogs (1.95)
Hawks 1-39 vs Bulldogs (2.09)

As for the NRL, I can't just tell it's going to one of those moments where Brisbane have been spuds for the second half of the year but luckily play a team they usually have close games with and probably win it. Still gotta back the Cowboys here

Cowboys ml vs Broncos (1.49)
Cowboys 1-12 vs Broncos (2.75)

I know people are probably thinking what's the point with the mls, am I just trying to boost up my record. lol no I'm not, you just never get the teams at this price usually and I gotta take it. Cowboys were this price a few times and Hawks a few times as well but it's not every week. As t2 likes to say, it could be free money. Don't want to jinx myself so good luck to all.

Locking it in early just incase the line moves up. Favourite play of the week. Panthers in the exact same spot as Raiders last week but except playing away and against a better team.

Raiders ml vs Panthers (1.63)
Raiders -3.5 vs Panthers (1.90)

Dangerfield vs his old team in a prelim final would be hectic. What a game that would be.

Adelaide (1-39) @ Sydney swans (2.70)

3-5 last week. I swear atleast 20% of my margin bets lose because of golden point.

will post picks soon. Hearing Sydney could have a few late outs in the cats game so will see what happens. Like the Sharks tonight (unfortunately). Can't see the cows winning the finals this year. Jt deserves another one though

No late outs.

Sydney swans 1-39 @ Geelong (2.75)

Cronulla Sharks +1.5 vs Cowboys (1.90)
Sharks ml vs cowboys (1.99)

Fark sorry for the late post but only 7 minutes into the game so it's not one of those watch the games and pick the winning team.

Have Bulldogs at +20.5 @ GWS (1.95)

Melbourne Storm 1-12 vs raiders (2.90)
Storm vs raiders under 37.5 (1.90)

Definitely needed a week like this. 6-0 for the week. Grand finals next week, hopefully I end the season just as nice.

 Awesome weekend mate

Cheers AB, bout time I did something right. Let's get it this weekend mate!

Wow how did I miss this. Good job EB

Thanking you Rod!

Some great value in the most possessions group. Bontempali is in group b! It's crazy. No real notable swans ball getters in there. Kieran jacks there but he has declined a lot this year. Isaac heeney is actually the shortest favourite at 3.75 with jake Lloyd at 4.00 what haha. Bont could easily get most for the game. He is paying 4.50. Other notable dogs in there is johannison who is 5.50 I think and Liam Picken the highest priced with Caleb Daniel at 10.

Bont could be the target of a Mitchell tag but $4.50 for someone who was considered a brownlow medal favourite minus the eventual winner. I mean he is in group b. Worth a look at guys.

Okay adding two plays quickly.

Isaac heeney anytime goal scorer (1.50)
Ben mcglynn anytime goal scorer (1.45)

I know pretty low odds but for two guys that play forward pocket and when their team wins are usually scoring multiple goals, it's a lot higher than it should be.