Rabbitohs by 8- I think that the Rabbitohs will bounce back from last week with a win here.
Warriors by 16- I think that this will be one of those games that the Warriors will play really well and I believe win and win well against a more of a depleted Broncos side.
Sharks by 8- Although the Sharks have lost Maloney and therefore losing some stacking flair, alongside losing Graham and Fifita, the Bulldogs have lost some key players too and I believe still don't have the attack to beat the Sharks here.
And finally... the Raiders by 12- Raiders have only Papaili out this week which is a huge blow for the Raiders, though Roosters have even more out including Pearce, Ferguson, Guerra, co-captain Cordner. Thus, I believe that this will affect the Roosters a lot and thus, the Raiders will be too strong for the Roosters here.
The Blues have lost both their New Zealand derby matches (against the Canes and Highlanders) staged in Auckland this season by margins of four points. In 2016 they lost to the Saders by five points and the Canes by four at Eden Park and they edged out the Highlanders 33-31, their only success against a local rival in recent times.
The above suggests we are in for another close game in terms of the scoreboard which certainly brings the 1-12 point winning margin markets in to play. However in this case my my issue with the 1-12 is that I’m not overly confident on naming a winning team and with that in mind, and some stats from Eden Park derby matches on my side, I will go with the plus.
The Broncos are taking to the field with a severely depleted side albeit with a returning Ben Hunt amongst the ranks. The Warriors have barely been affected by Origin and looked primed to start their customary run over the Origin period. However given just how much adversity the Broncos are facing, would it really be any surprise to see them overcome it and for the Warriors to implode?
The Warriors should win and by a big margin which is exactly why they won’t. Broncos to edge it out by 6-8 points
..
Final Thoughts
It is hard to overlook some of selection decisions made by NSW in this one, a game they could have won with some reasonable decision-making. Pearce has been tried and tested at the Origin level, while Josh Dugan and Jarryd Hayne are playing out of position and are hardly the form centres of the NRL. There’s no questioning that Johnathan Thurston is irreplacable, but The Wolf argues that the Maroons’ spine is still better than what NSW have named. The top bet in the match though is under 33.5 points. None of the last four series openers have topped 20 points while the last time a total surpassed 28 in a series opener was back in 2010.
How It’s Shaping Up
Queensland by 4
Best Bet
Under 33.5 points ($1.90)
Best First/Last Tryscorer
Dane Gagai($10)
Other Recommended Bets
Queensland -1.5 ($1.95)
queensland will win without thruston..
Coach - Kevin Walters
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