Posted:
#1
any of you guys ever use PECOTA or ZiPS to simulate a MLB season ?
i've never touched them, but some local stat geek mariners bloggers have run 100 seasons worth and come up with some interesting data.
this is from a ZiPS simulation of 100 seasons for the 2008 Mariners
77% of the seasons were 82 wins or under
95% of the seasons were 86 wins or under
95% of the seasons were 86 wins or under
based on the blog i read, they sound like a pain in the ass to run, but perhaps with some proper research, we might be able to steal the info from the stat geeks that look forward to kind of number crunching.
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