bellsbendboy

Handed dreadful sequence, prices invisible to find, eschewed pick 4, playing a ticket because I spent some time.

8)  Going to single BROSKI who always tries, has several races that would win here, KK on the reride, improved works, been on fence last three moves outside.

9)  No question Matina is on the lead here yet in last sans blinks blew the turn, stopped, solid half since.  Ryan's Girl drops, consistent, also drops to the bottom.  KK again for Georgie and Kretz homer roan now or never.  Also "Mucho off the rail shedding blinks under Rispoli who actually was on for morning April breeze?

10)  GOATSKI debuts for Danny who generally gives them one, gets Hector, worked early 2yo b4 shelving, good since in am.  "Ride for Glatt would not be a surprise switches surface with green on green dam.  Favored "tami for powerful cal breeders has to be included.

Worst sequence in years from a cappers standpoint. bbb

@cd329

 Giving you a mulligan here; although your second paragraph is absurd.

@StraightWagers

 No worries.  

@RUM151

 Present.  Realize you are frustrated.  You are betting a binary game, batting some 46% at always minus odds though buying points exacerbates your losses.

On the other hand, I am batting over 60% on my bets (singles), in eight/nine horse fields at odds between 10-1 and 22-1.

I'd be willing to help you and have tried.  Yet you reply with petty insults?

@StraightWagers

 No one said you were dumb; I commented because of your use of the word "rig" which indicated a lack of grasp. 

@StraightWagers

 Hardly an uncommon phenomenon in pro sports that one team kills the other any given game.

@RUM151

 Glad you "can afford to lose" , you certainly are good at it.

@RUM151

 Apparently, the juice monster has acquired a new set of darts.

@bellsbendboy

 Still watching replays, remarkable performance by the big horse.

To put it into perspective numerically, last eighth in :12 and a few ticks, older graded sprinters cannot do that!

Crashed and burned quickly in Arcadia pick four losing leg one to a horse that had not won a dirt heat in almost three years,

The rest OK, single wired his field oddly no claim.  Lastly, the singles i have posted here, last six weeks, have won at nearly 70%,

Both my friends are making good coin. bbb

@Mskeets

 "Rum has consistently lost .20 cents for every dollar he has posted here, luck for him?  No data found.  

@Crusher13

 Cool post. Assuming you are mostly interested in the bigger races, which is good, would offer betting horses is the only way to make a profit, betting "sports".  Takes a decade, likely two, to learn your schit, employ your tenets, yet, with perseverance n passion one could make legitimate chance bets at taxed odds (299-1 according to the IRS), far better than the 11-10. more on the swing and miss in Arcadia, different post.  

SA today  race 7     pick 4   3,4,5,8 / 8 / 3,4,9 / 1,2,3,7,8,12

Had strong handle on Preakness pick 4, two solid singles winning with odds on horse and grass grab bag.  Got up saw 40% of my horses scratched, bet a pair of tickets and paid the price for not finishing the handicapping.  My single in the turf heat, settled made the lead top stretch then went wrong only beating the horse that was vanned off.  Journalism a marvelous sophomore.  Out of time here, So Cal, living with the McCarthy dropper, first hood, back on preferred surface, hoping the Hector's have not fixed their charge. bbb

@bellsbendboy

 Turn the page, on to SA tomorrow. Slim pickings today!

Race 10 Pimlico  pick four   1 / 7,10 / 13 / 2

@Mskeets

 Minus 136 for the juice monster, what fun.

@bellsbendboy

 Dixie

Long time pre-Preakness fixture, solid turfers, nine poles enough purse (250K), prestige (Grade III) to chase and a big stage for the ego's.

To be sure this is a difficult heat to forecast. A few tenets; if your horse cannot close, firm/good turf, in sub :24 or sub :30, do not bet. On grass the older the better.

Landed, softly, on IRISH ACRES.  5yo gelding (early) has posted ten consecutive Beyer's 90+.  Inbred bigly, top and bottom to Northern Dancer, very competent conditioner added shades for Kee 3x wire job off the hedge, galloped out stoutly, should stay the 9, a trio of well-spaced, Florence works, huge rider upgrade, doesn't want the lead, tactical more than many here.  TRIKARI would be the most likely winner yet, tenet: wait for a 4yo to beat older before jumping in, mired outside, short price, murky pace, solid effort off the shelf vs. "Carl. $100,000 a start for the Amerman's major player if Prat works out a trip; he generally does.

Some interest in Fulmineo, Bolt colt honest talented, prepped in the Clark, ran better than he had first 4yo, drops poundage, needs a perfect trip, big price.

Need some scratch help this sequence, track sealed today, may get it. post play(s) after. bbb

@bellsbendboy

 Murphy

Sophs, 8f, lawn, weight per accomplishment.

Spent some time, really do not like this heat, of course that's the lure of sequence bets, one need not pick winners, just clear the race, especially when you have a standout single.

Pace always critical in two turn races and CLOCK TOWER sets it here.  Clear at the quarter pole in all five juvy starts. Last in Lexington caught a really fast one, sat second, gave way. A pair of 5f green breezes a good sign.  New boy checks the boxes, excellent at the gate, mega agressive and strong finisher, he'll need all of that her as this one can't get an inch over the mile. Lastly, this ones dam won a stake at nine panels, and he had to need his last.  END OF ROMANCE absolutely flew late in a weak maiden while green as a spring sapling, won again two months later beating Preakness entrant.  Shamrock went down on the hip to buy him privately (slightly ironic as they sold the horse to the inside of this one for $5,000).  OK off the shelf at Latonia in rich affair with trouble, shipped NY for similar spot, broke soft (first hood) closed stoutly.  REAGAN's WIT debuted in Henderson when solid second in sub 1:34, time off, duh, tour de force before getting necked in Tampa by Chad charge who came back to win Grade I @churchill.  The latter pair both get pounds fron our top choice.  Feel I'm over 70% to clear this heat and will live with the trio and shop for numbers in the Dinner Party to spice up the pick four, especially with the best horse drawing post 13.   bbb  

@RUM151

 If all your plays were small, you would lose less money. Just sayin.

@Miracling2

 Nice prattle.  Do you get paid for your ubiquitous gibberish?

Both of my friends are going to read this looking for a Preakness play.  Fledgling players, sharp enough, would like to hook them into cappin.  Recommending they bet the big horse at 6-5 would do little to further my cause.  So, going to give them a pick four ticket, ending with the Preakness, figuring if I can stay alive race to race, it would increase their interest and maybe get 10-1 on their wager, which will not be immaterial. 

Always try to make a case for my selections/bets yet am often pressed for time and the research/passion/experience/ long track record/ limited commentary is lacking in what I post.  Amazed at some here on the other forums, SF +6 is there only comment.  Mind boggling many assume such as gospel, especially in a binary venture at odds of 11-10. If you are still reading a competent capper can make good coinage.

 Again trying to get to the big horse, start with race 10 the Sir Barton.  Named after triple crown winner 8.5 dirt panels restricted sophs, non-stakes winners. And what shows up a pair of stallions!  Both will stand yet have only broken their maidens.

Sir Barton

CRUDO off the fence for Todd, could be any kind.  By Justify out of a mare that has produced pure gold!  Multiple grade winners and a full sister has won all 8 of her voyages in Japan.  Master chef, pedigree expert, B Flay acquires this one as a weanling, 350K, names it CREDO, (raw fish).  Debuts, Hallandale, big move, ran out of training, normal, Johnny a couple of taps, wrapped up. Time off, repeated bullets preceded Kee turn da force, on the engine, at less than .50 cents on the dollar, ears pricked more to give.  Best of 65 @ Oklahoma ensues, long gone here as second choice. 

Not so fast my friends, INVICTUS, By Into Mischief, out of Kentucky Oaks winner, (my largest win bet ever) has shown serious talent. Also, a poor debut, time off, Keeneland romp, yet had lead change issues.  Very solid morning activity for this, Prat on the reride always a plus.  Out of character, for me, possible sequence inclusion may be the Laoban colt. Ill-fated sire won the Jim Dandy as a maiden, wouldn't breed, Winstar gave him a "vitamin" injection, horse died, lawsuits pending. Smallish, 8k yearling is a race horse. As of now 70% single, 20% two deep, 10% J Rod on the reride. Not a sexy selection in the sequence though winning the sequence the objective.  bbb

@Mac005

 Post # 58578 is an odds on favorite.