autumn

Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-120)

1. Premier Run Production

   • The Dodgers lead the National League in scoring with 220 runs in 38 games (5.79 R/G), while the Diamondbacks rank 6th with 191 runs in 38 games (5.03 R/G).

   • That 0.76-run differential per game gives L.A.’s lineup a consistent edge in nearly every contest.

2. Bullpen Dominance

   • L.A.’s late-inning arms feature Tanner Scott (3.14 ERA), Alex Vesia (3.41 ERA) and Evan Phillips (3.24 ERA).

   • Arizona’s relief corps checks in at a 4.68 team ERA (25th in MLB), making them significantly more vulnerable after the starters exit.

3. Depth of Everyday Lineup

   • Beyond their stars, the Dodgers boast a top-10 MLB lineup OPS (season OPS: .781, 9th overall), providing protection in their middle and lower third.

   • Arizona’s team OPS sits at .762 (12th), meaning L.A. can capitalize more often with runners in scoring position.

4. Road Warrior Form

   • L.A. is 15–3 away from Dodger Stadium this season (.833 road winning pct).

   • Contrastingly, the D-backs are just 12–6 at home (.667), giving the Dodgers the truer “road dog” edge.

5. Superior Public Betting Lean

   • 57 percent of today’s money is on the Dodgers on Covers.com, signaling both sharp and public confidence.

   • Public money can move lines—here, it’s moved them in L.A.’s favor, reinforcing value.

6. Elite Offseason Upgrades

   • L.A. added two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and phenom Roki Sasaki this winter, plus closer Tanner Scott and veteran Kirby Yates.

   • Even with some arms on the IL, they remain MLB’s deepest roster.

7. Resilience vs. Adversity

   • Despite 12 pitchers on the injury list, the Dodgers own baseball’s best record (26–13).

   • That underscores organizational depth and championship-caliber culture.

8. Historical Success as Favorites

   • When listed as favorites, L.A. is 23–11 (67.6%).

   • That’s the mark of a team that consistently delivers when expected to win.

9. Chase Field Park Factors Favor Hitters

   • Chase Field ranks in the top-5 in MLB for home-run park factor.

   • The Dodgers’ powerful lineup can exploit this more than Arizona’s more balanced attack.

10. Starting Pitcher Edge (Indirect)

• While Corbin Burnes (3.58 ERA) is technically the stronger hurler on paper vs. Dustin May (4.36 ERA), Vegas has priced L.A. appropriately.

• Backing the superior offense and bullpen compensates for any SP disparity, making the -120 ML the ideal “side” to play.

Play: 1 unit on Dodgers ML (-120)
Good luck, and wager responsibly!

Yankees @ Athletics — Under 10.5 runs is today’s top totals pick. Here are ten data-driven reasons why this is the best play:

lay:

1. Elite Starting Arms on Both Mounds

   • New York’s Carlos Rodón boasts a 2.96 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 48.2 IP this season, ranking him among MLB’s top-30 starters in ERA and top-7 in WHIP.

   • Oakland’s J.P. Sears has been equally stingy, posting a 2.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 40 IP, placing him in the top-25 in ERA and top-17 in WHIP.

2. Subpar A’s Offense — Only 3.32 Runs/Game
   In their last 25 games, Oakland has averaged just 3.32 R/G (83 runs over 25 games), ranking them among the bottom quintile of MLB lineups over that span.

3. Yankees’ Moderate Scoring Pace — 4.8 R/G
   New York has scored 4.8 R/G in their last 20 contests, a solid but not overwhelming clip that rarely blows past a 10-run combined threshold.

4. Pitcher-Friendly Venue
   Sutter Health Park played like the most pitcher-friendly Triple-A park in 2024, allowing 31% fewer runs than average, and carries over a stingy footprint in ’25.

5. Dominant Yankees Bullpen
   New York’s relief corps features multiple sub-2.00 FIP arms (e.g., Devin Williams) and ranks among the very best in ERA, WHIP, and LOB% — suppressing late-inning scoring.

6. Command Profiles Point to Empty Counts

   • Rodón’s 0.92 WHIP shows he limits baserunners via both hits and walks.

   • Sears wields pinpoint control (1.00 WHIP, just 6 BB in 40 IP) to keep rallies in check.

7. Historical Head-to-Head Trend
   Over their long H2H history, NYY–OAK games have averaged only 9.2 R/G combined, with 83.3% of matchups going under typical books’ 10.5–11 run lines.

8. Cold A’s Secondary Bats
   Through 39 games, Oakland ranks in the bottom third of the AL in OPS (.637) and ISO (.126), lacking consistent extra-base pop to overcome elite arms.

9. Low-Scoring Weather & Surface
   While Sacramento can get hot, today’s forecast is dry and clear with no rain delays, meaning pitchers won’t labor in humid, muggy conditions — and the new artificial turf actually plays a bit “snappy,” favoring defenders .

10. Value on the Board
    The Under 10.5 is available at about -121 (or +101 in some markets), offering excellent risk/reward given the strength of the matchup and venue factors.

Taken together, dominant pitching, weak offense, a pitcher-friendly park, and historical tendencies all point to an Under in this tilt. Bet Under 10.5 runs in Yankees @ Athletics as today’s best totals play.

@autumn

 And here's ChatGPT's ML pick of the night:

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After analyzing the entire Friday, May 9 slate, the one best pick is:

San Diego Padres moneyline at Colorado Rockies (–166)

1. Rockies Just Got Shellacked in a Doubleheader
   Colorado starters allowed 16 runs over two games in their doubleheader yesterday, and the lineup still looks punchless heading into tonight’s contest

2. Colorado Bullpen Is One of the Worst in Baseball
   Despite Coors Park’s reputation, the Rockies “own one of the worst bullpens in baseball,” making them especially vulnerable late in games.

3. Padres Boast a Top-Five Bullpen
   According to RotoWire’s latest bullpen rankings (updated May 8), San Diego’s relief corps ranks second in MLB, giving them a multi-inning edge late.

4. Padres Have Shut Out the Rockies Three Straight Times
   In their April home series, San Diego blanked Colorado 6–0, 2–0, and 8–0—becoming the first team in eight years to sweep three straight shutouts in a series.

5. Dominant Recent Head-to-Head Results
   All three meetings in mid-April were played at Coors Park and resulted in comfortable Padres wins (6–0, 2–0, 8–0) while favored by at least –164 on the moneyline .

6. Padres Road Favorites with Strong Market Support
   Vegas opened the line around –164 and has already ticked down to –166, indicating sharp action on San Diego and a lack of value on Colorado.

7. Padres’ Starter Randy Vásquez Has Been Solid
   Over 32.1 IP this season, Vásquez owns a 3.90 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP. He’s limited quality-at-bats and given his teammates a chance to win every time out.

8. Colorado Likely Fatigued After Yesterday’s Grind
   A doubleheader taxes both starting and relief pitchers; with their staff already worn down, the Rockies are unlikely to bounce back immediately.

9. Padres’ Lineup Crushes Bad Bullpens
   San Diego’s offense has feasted whenever opposing relief has walked a leadoff man—Rockies relievers rank in the bottom quintile in first-inning WHIP this year.

10. Consensus Among Experts Favors the Padres
    In RotoWire’s “Road Favorites” list, San Diego is highlighted as the top road pick of the day, reflecting collective confidence in their moneyline value.

Bet: Padres ML –166
Wager Size Suggestion: 1–2 units (depending on bankroll and risk tolerance)

Good luck, and may the odds be ever in your favor!

Pretty nice analysis here:

Tor/Sea Un 7

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I’m plugging Under 7 runs in the Mariners–Blue Jays game at T-Mobile Park (first pitch 9:40 p.m. PT). Here are ten reasons why this total looks sharply tilted toward the “under,” each backed by recent data:

1. Pitcher-Friendly Park Factor
   T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest run environments in MLB—17 percent below league average over the past three years—making it the toughest park in which to score

2. Dramatic Whiff Spike After Sunset
   The stadium’s extremely dark batter’s eye creates a significant rise in strikeouts once the sun dips below the horizon, suppressing offense in night games like tonight’s

3. Elite Starting Pitchers on the Mound
   Seattle’s Luis Castillo owns a 3.29 ERA and a stingy .238 opponent batting average so far this year, while Toronto’s Kevin Gausman carries a 3.83 ERA and just a .182 opponent average over his last outing

4. Recent Quality Starts from Both Arms
   Castillo yielded only 1 earned run over 6 innings in his last turn, and Gausman tossed 6 shutout innings in his most recent start—two of seven quality starts on the year.

5. Suppressed Home Run Conditions
   T-Mobile Park ranked last in doubles and triples, 19th in home runs, and 26th in overall runs from 2022–24—demonstrating how its marine layer and dimensions limit extra-base hits.

6. Cool, Calm Seattle Weather
   Friday’s forecast is a comfortable 66–68 °F with light wind and clear skies—conditions that don’t help carry the ball out of this already pitcher-friendly park 

7. Bullpen Stability on Both Sides
   Both teams’ pen arms rank in the top half of MLB in bullpen ERA, suggesting few late-inning runs will sneak in once the starters exit.

8. Mariners’ Under Trend
   Seattle’s games have gone “under” the total in 6 of their last 8 home outings, indicating their ballpark and pitching staff consistently keep scores low.

9. Blue Jays’ Offensive Inconsistency
   Toronto averages just 3.65 runs per game this season (ranked 24th in MLB) and even their recent surge to 3.8 R/G over the last 5 games still leaves them below league average.

10. Market Consensus Leaning Under
    Sharps have moved early money onto the under in this spot—BetMGM lists the Under 7.5 at +100, while most public money is split on the Over, a classic contrarian indicator.

Bet: Under 7 runs (total 7.0) – highest edge play on tonight’s board.
Good luck, and may the pitchers dominate!

I know they just "take the night off" sometimes, but what a disappointment for everyone. 

From a betting standpoint, I try to pick teams that are reliable, that come out to play every night and put in their best effort and if they lose, you know the guys at least gave it their best. But to watch these "rich guys take the night off" is just shameful for the integrity of the sports, and someone should make a stink about it.

Last night the Raptors,...and then Golden State DID NOT EVEN TRY to win the games. What a letdown for the fans, not to mention bettors, but how can they justify this lack of integrity in their game???

Can this data be downloaded? 

I wish everyone success and would love to see JB get to 25.

Many users here have made it to 11, 15, 17, but what are the peak points, and what are the stats on the "tipping point" for the general public?

... I mean, there's gotta be some stats on this? What is the success rate after 11, 15, 17 picks???

Does anyone have any strategies on fading picks when a survivor user gets very high on the board? Surely betting against these picks at these high streaks would be wiser to fade than follow?