ChatGPT's MLB Pick

Pretty nice analysis here:

Tor/Sea Un 7

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I’m plugging Under 7 runs in the Mariners–Blue Jays game at T-Mobile Park (first pitch 9:40 p.m. PT). Here are ten reasons why this total looks sharply tilted toward the “under,” each backed by recent data:

1. Pitcher-Friendly Park Factor
   T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest run environments in MLB—17 percent below league average over the past three years—making it the toughest park in which to score

2. Dramatic Whiff Spike After Sunset
   The stadium’s extremely dark batter’s eye creates a significant rise in strikeouts once the sun dips below the horizon, suppressing offense in night games like tonight’s

3. Elite Starting Pitchers on the Mound
   Seattle’s Luis Castillo owns a 3.29 ERA and a stingy .238 opponent batting average so far this year, while Toronto’s Kevin Gausman carries a 3.83 ERA and just a .182 opponent average over his last outing

4. Recent Quality Starts from Both Arms
   Castillo yielded only 1 earned run over 6 innings in his last turn, and Gausman tossed 6 shutout innings in his most recent start—two of seven quality starts on the year.

5. Suppressed Home Run Conditions
   T-Mobile Park ranked last in doubles and triples, 19th in home runs, and 26th in overall runs from 2022–24—demonstrating how its marine layer and dimensions limit extra-base hits.

6. Cool, Calm Seattle Weather
   Friday’s forecast is a comfortable 66–68 °F with light wind and clear skies—conditions that don’t help carry the ball out of this already pitcher-friendly park 

7. Bullpen Stability on Both Sides
   Both teams’ pen arms rank in the top half of MLB in bullpen ERA, suggesting few late-inning runs will sneak in once the starters exit.

8. Mariners’ Under Trend
   Seattle’s games have gone “under” the total in 6 of their last 8 home outings, indicating their ballpark and pitching staff consistently keep scores low.

9. Blue Jays’ Offensive Inconsistency
   Toronto averages just 3.65 runs per game this season (ranked 24th in MLB) and even their recent surge to 3.8 R/G over the last 5 games still leaves them below league average.

10. Market Consensus Leaning Under
    Sharps have moved early money onto the under in this spot—BetMGM lists the Under 7.5 at +100, while most public money is split on the Over, a classic contrarian indicator.

Bet: Under 7 runs (total 7.0) – highest edge play on tonight’s board.
Good luck, and may the pitchers dominate!

@autumn

 And here's ChatGPT's ML pick of the night:

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After analyzing the entire Friday, May 9 slate, the one best pick is:

San Diego Padres moneyline at Colorado Rockies (–166)

1. Rockies Just Got Shellacked in a Doubleheader
   Colorado starters allowed 16 runs over two games in their doubleheader yesterday, and the lineup still looks punchless heading into tonight’s contest

2. Colorado Bullpen Is One of the Worst in Baseball
   Despite Coors Park’s reputation, the Rockies “own one of the worst bullpens in baseball,” making them especially vulnerable late in games.

3. Padres Boast a Top-Five Bullpen
   According to RotoWire’s latest bullpen rankings (updated May 8), San Diego’s relief corps ranks second in MLB, giving them a multi-inning edge late.

4. Padres Have Shut Out the Rockies Three Straight Times
   In their April home series, San Diego blanked Colorado 6–0, 2–0, and 8–0—becoming the first team in eight years to sweep three straight shutouts in a series.

5. Dominant Recent Head-to-Head Results
   All three meetings in mid-April were played at Coors Park and resulted in comfortable Padres wins (6–0, 2–0, 8–0) while favored by at least –164 on the moneyline .

6. Padres Road Favorites with Strong Market Support
   Vegas opened the line around –164 and has already ticked down to –166, indicating sharp action on San Diego and a lack of value on Colorado.

7. Padres’ Starter Randy Vásquez Has Been Solid
   Over 32.1 IP this season, Vásquez owns a 3.90 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP. He’s limited quality-at-bats and given his teammates a chance to win every time out.

8. Colorado Likely Fatigued After Yesterday’s Grind
   A doubleheader taxes both starting and relief pitchers; with their staff already worn down, the Rockies are unlikely to bounce back immediately.

9. Padres’ Lineup Crushes Bad Bullpens
   San Diego’s offense has feasted whenever opposing relief has walked a leadoff man—Rockies relievers rank in the bottom quintile in first-inning WHIP this year.

10. Consensus Among Experts Favors the Padres
    In RotoWire’s “Road Favorites” list, San Diego is highlighted as the top road pick of the day, reflecting collective confidence in their moneyline value.

Bet: Padres ML –166
Wager Size Suggestion: 1–2 units (depending on bankroll and risk tolerance)

Good luck, and may the odds be ever in your favor!