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Honda Classic picks

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Posted: #1

Big card this week.  Lots of plays, but I really like these.  Here we go...


Charles Howell ov Brooks Koepka


Last time I bet on Charles Howell, he finished 2nd…and I Iost that bet.  Going to back to the well here!!!  You have to go back to the CIMB Classic in October of 2016 to find a tournament when Charles Howell finished worse than 15th.  Eight straight top 15s.  Brooks Koepka has 2 missed cuts and a 42nd in his last 3 tournaments.



Jonathan Vegas ov Lucas Glover


First off, Glover has missed the cut here 3 straight times.  Let’s look at current form.  Lucas Glovers best finish in the 2017 season is 33rd.  Vegas’s worse finish in his last 6 tourneys is 34th.  Vegas has 3 straight finishes in which he was better than the week before so he’s got a little momentum.  We talked on the podcast about how Vegas has been so difficult to bet on in years past because he's been really inconsistent, but it looks like he's turning the corner this year.  Eight straight made cuts



Ollie Schniederjans ov Emiliano Grillo


I love Grillo...it pains me to bet against him...but the numbers don’t lie.  Shenanigans has 3 top 10 finishes in the 2017 season, no Missed Cuts, and 5 tournaments out of 6 are top 25 finishes.  Grillo’s last 3 tournaments are 33rd, 63rd, and missed cut.  Grillo was bad here last year, finished 12 shots over par.  


*crazy line movement on this play.  It was -120 this morning...now it's +130!!!  No idea why the money is going against me here...


Adam Scott ov Justin Thomas


Pretty simple here.  Adam Scott is as consistent as they get.  11th in his 2017 PGA tour debut last week, and Justin Thomas outside of Hawaii in 2017 has a missed cut and a 39th.  Adam Scott won this tournament last year.



Rickie Fowler ov Justin Thomas


My buddy on the podcast talked me into this pick.  This is the part of the season where Rickie starts to play well.  Last year he missed the cut at the Farmers as well...then he started at the Waste Management on a 4 out of 5 tourney run with top 10 finishes, including a 6th at the Honda.  In the 2017 PGA season, Rickie has a MC at the weird Farmers...other than that his worse finish is 6th.  Seems very similar to 2016.  Same stats on Justin Thomas a above.





 
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Posted: #2

Ian Poulter ov Hudson Stafford


Since his win, Swafford hasn’t made a cut.  And he hasn’t even come close to making the cut.  Shot 8 shots and 7 shots over par at those tournaments.  I think it's likely Swafford is throwing in the towel a bit off the win.  Swafford’s best finish in 3 tournaments here at the Honda Classic is 61st.  Poulter’s worse finish here is 46th, and 2 years ago he finished 3rd here.  In the last 5 tournaments Poulter has played in, he hasn’t finished outside the top 40, at his last tourney at Abu Dhabi he finished top 15.  Ian Poulter is a prick...and it's hard to bet on him...but I actually really like this play.



Daniel Summerhays ov CT Pan


CT Pan had that random 2nd place finish at the Farmers Open…besides that this year he’s been terrible.  Missed the cut in all 4 other tournaments.  Summerhays hasn’t been terrific, but in the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Summerhays has finished ahead of CT Pan in all of them.


BONUS PICK IF YOU ARE ON BOVADA


Top Australian


Adam Scott -200


Here are the other options.  On paper, I can't make the case for any of these guys to come close to Adam Scott.  -200 is a lot of juice, and there are lots of gamblers that won't lay this juice...but I'm playing it this week.


Marc Leishman +450

Cameron Percy +1400

John Senden +1400

Danny Lee +1600

Tim Wilkinson +1800

Greg Chalmers +2200

Steven Aiker at +4000

Steven Bowditch +7000

 
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Posted: #3
Andy
Like em all except Howell v koepka. 
I like koepka. 
FSU guy has played well in Florida before. 
Last week he had the bad tee time draw and MC probably due to bad weather. 
I'm on koepka this week. 
Good luck
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

Andy
Like em all except Howell v koepka. 
I like koepka. 
FSU guy has played well in Florida before. 
Last week he had the bad tee time draw and MC probably due to bad weather. 
I'm on koepka this week. 
Good luck

Looks we have another "Who Buys the Drink" bet...
 
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Posted: #5
Need my guys who follow the Euros here...

How's Carera Bello's back?  Is he 100%?
 
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Posted: #6
Donald ov Kaymer
Steele ov Johnson
Knox ov Oosthuizen

I like Steele play the most, played a lot here and he's done well on this course as of late and Johnson has missed cut his last two times here.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Sherms:

Donald ov Kaymer
Steele ov Johnson
Knox ov Oosthuizen

I like Steele play the most, played a lot here and he's done well on this course as of late and Johnson has missed cut his last two times here.

Curious why you like those plays...

I have my opinions about your plays...I'd like to hear yours...
 
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Posted: #8
like the picks BUT think it is a mistake to "double up" against Justin Thomas, alangrrbs

IF you want a good Euro Tour play this week in Johannesburg, South Africa, check Graeme Storm -110 over Justin Hicks. Storm WON South African Open [-18] T-39th Dubai. T-21st Qatar. CUT @ Maybank and Abu Dhabi. Hicks is an American Web,com player who's last win was in 2010. was "cut bait" or a bottom feeder his last two seasons. do NOT know HOW he is in the tourney
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

like the picks BUT think it is a mistake to "double up" against Justin Thomas, alangrrbs

IF you want a good Euro Tour play this week in Johannesburg, South Africa, check Graeme Storm -110 over Justin Hicks. Storm WON South African Open [-18] T-39th Dubai. T-21st Qatar. CUT @ Maybank and Abu Dhabi. Hicks is an American Web,com player who's last win was in 2010. was "cut bait" or a bottom feeder his last two seasons. do NOT know HOW he is in the tourney

Only matchup I see with Hicks is Blaaum v. Hicks...
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Need my guys who follow the Euros here...

How's Carera Bello's back?  Is he 100%?


Rafa seems to be doing OK. watching him his last three tourneys he didn't show any signs of pain. T-6th 2 Qatar [-14]. T-11th @ Dubai [-9] and T-34th @ Malaysia [-5]

think the BEST "Euro Trash" match play this week is Thomas Pieters +105 over Tyrrell Hatton. "Salt" Pieters T-2nd last week @ Riveria. last time Ty Hatton came over for PGA tour last fall, he fell on his butt
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


Only matchup I see with Hicks is Blaaum v. Hicks...


that's too bad. don't know Blaaum. I got it @ William-Hill Las Vegas.

also chanced Brandon Stone -110 over George Coetzee. Stone WON @ Leopard Creek [-22] T-7th Dubai Desert Classic [-11] T-31st South African Open [-7] made the cut his last 6 tourneys. Coetzee T-7th Dubai Desert Classic [-11] BUT was a CUT Maybank, Qatar and South African Open
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

like the picks BUT think it is a mistake to "double up" against Justin Thomas, alangrrbs

I've had this rule in the past about betting against the same guy in multiple bets...

But I've adjusted my thinking after missing out on some bets that would have won.  Normally, it's a bigger name guy in multiple matchups to bet against, and my position against Thomas is this:

He won big at the 2 tourneys in Hawaii...but I believe those are outliers, and not the norm for him.  Last year he had only 5 top 10's, and 6 missed cuts.  And when the books make the lines, they take those 2 wins into account when pairing him up with the big names this week...and I think that's a mistake.  I believe the Justin Thomas from Hawaii is not the Justin Thomas playing now, and I think the value in the matchups lie in Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott.

If I take the two matchups separately, I think they both have value, so I'll take them.  Of course, it could blow up in my face, but I feel like having strong opinions and jumping on them confidently gets rewarded in golf matchups, and I'm OK if the bets lose because I feel like I did the research, and I'm good with the results.  

Now...how is Rafa's back?!?




 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:



Rafa seems to be doing OK. watching him his last three tourneys he didn't show any signs of pain. T-6th 2 Qatar [-14]. T-11th @ Dubai [-9] and T-34th @ Malaysia [-5]

think the BEST "Euro Trash" match play this week is Thomas Pieters +105 over Tyrrell Hatton. "Salt" Pieters T-2nd last week @ Riveria. last time Ty Hatton came over for PGA tour last fall, he fell on his butt

Hatton has been solid recently though...right?  I picked him in the Covers contest...
 
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Posted: #14
Will type out full reasoning when on computer tomorrow. Too much from phone right now. What are yOur thoughts? I based mine mostly on recent form and previous rounds on champion course
 
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Posted: #15
Also Fowler finish better than 17
Scott finish better than 12
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Sherms:

Will type out full reasoning when on computer tomorrow. Too much from phone right now. What are yOur thoughts? I based mine mostly on recent form and previous rounds on champion course

Here are my "devils advocate" write-ups on the plays.  I'm not predicting the picks will lose, I just wanted to share what I think are the arguments against the plays, and why I wouldn't play them.  I just don't see the value in the plays, and I don't like playing bets unless the research completely convinces me.

Knox ov Louis

Louis is a reeeeally streaky player.  He can be hot/cold/hot/cold...it's hard to follow his trends, but right now he's hot.  Three top 10's the last 4 tourney's he's played in.  Knox doesn't have one top 10 since the OHL Classic in November.  I love Knox, but I don't see the value in him in this matchup.

Steele ov Zach Johnson

Steele has been fantastic.  But so has Zach at times.  Zach has missed the cut...or finished top 12...nothing in between this year.  It's just hard to predict what Zach will do this week.  And I try and stay away from unpredictable results in recent form.

Donald ov Kaymer

I just have a personal rule to not have bets involving Luke Donald.  He's all over the board.  He looks to be in decent form the last 2 tourneys, but he has as many missed cuts as he does top 20 finishes in the 2017 season.  

I would've taken what you invested in these matchups, and put it more into the Fowler, and Scott finishing places.  Because I think the research, and numbers suggest value in those.  Just my 2 cents 






 
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Posted: #17
If it makes a difference I got Steele at -125 he's -145 now, Knox at -115 he's -135 now and Donald +105 he's -105 now
 
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Posted: #18
Really interested to see how this tournament goes this week. Completely agree with Rat regarding the Pieters/ Hatton match. Pieters coming off a T2 last week with a 63 on Sunday. I think that momentum will continue to this week. Hatton's first tourney here this year stateside. I think this guy has a ton of ability but I think it will take some time to acclimate to US golf. He has played well in majors but this kind of tournament you have to go really low in to compete. I will be betting he isn't ready for it yet coming right off the plane. I also feel that Bradley is a good play against Cabrera Bello but going to lay off this one. Good luck this week guys! Love the insight
 
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Posted: #19
Thanks Andy
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


Curious why you like those plays...

I have my opinions about your plays...I'd like to hear yours...

Luke Donald v Martin Kaymer 

He's made 4/6 cuts this season including 3 top 25 finishes. He has a T7 and T8 at Honda in 2014 and 2015 and even though he finished worse last year, he still made cut, you can even go back to 2011 and he has a T10 finish. So that is 3 out of 4 goes at Honda that include a top 10 finish for Donald. Kaymer has a T51, CUT and T44 in his only 3 appearances at Honda. It is also his first PGA event this year. Obviously capable of playing but I'm going with the better track record and recent form here. 

Brendan Steele v Zach Johnson

Brendan Steele doesn't have one missed cut this season, in fact his worst performance came last week at Genesis where he finished T39. He already has a win this season at Safeway and has placed T6 twice. T33, T14, T11 last 3 goes at Honda and has NEVER missed cut there. Johnson has shown he can get it going this season finishing 12 or better in 3/5 goes, however he has missed the cut in the other two. I can see why you say you just never know with him but again, based on track record I'm rolling with consistency. In addition, Johnson has missed cut the last two goes at Honda in 2015 and 2016 

Russell Knox v Louis Oosthuizen 

In 8 of 9 appearances this year Knox has finished 17th or better, failing to make cut only at the Phoenix Open. He has a T3 and a T25 his last two times out at Honda and has shown he can be a threat on the Champions Course. Yes, Oosthuizen has looked great at times this year, but he's also looked horrendous. His Honda record includes 2 W/D and a CUT. 

So I am going based primarily on previous Honda records as well as recent form.

Just want to add my unit size varies on each of these wagers. I have 5u* on Steele, 4u* on Donald, and 2u* on Knox. 

I'm looking to add more today but need to do some research first. 

Comments/thoughts encouraged. Thanks for the thread Alan
 
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Posted: #21
Literally all of your write-ups are based on golfers form and sometimes course history. Turth is, courses in California and west coast have very little to do with this week course, so someone missing/making couple straight cuts, might not mean much, if anything at all.

Florida courses are full of water hazards, wind, bermuda greens and it's not uncommon for British golfers to do much better on similar courses to this one, simply because of their golf strategy. Smashing ball off the tee and then trying to find green from wherever ball landed is simply not going to work on course that has plenty of trouble if you stray too far off the fairways.

That means the field usually has very low GIR% and in past 7 years on this course, the field has averaged just 60% of greens in regulation.

Most of the field will use less than driver for vast majority of rounds, so simply targeting accuracy is not best way to go.

Overall, aside from golfers form, I believe you must pay attention how golfer does on courses with very hard to hit greens and also how does the one do on courses where driving distance is restricted off the tee. Some of the guys you like are losing strokes on similar courses so, despite their better form, they might not be such a good plays after all.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Ningishzida:

Literally all of your write-ups are based on golfers form and sometimes course history. Turth is, courses in California and west coast have very little to do with this week course, so someone missing/making couple straight cuts, might not mean much, if anything at all.

Florida courses are full of water hazards, wind, bermuda greens and it's not uncommon for British golfers to do much better on similar courses to this one, simply because of their golf strategy. Smashing ball off the tee and then trying to find green from wherever ball landed is simply not going to work on course that has plenty of trouble if you stray too far off the fairways.

That means the field usually has very low GIR% and in past 7 years on this course, the field has averaged just 60% of greens in regulation.

Most of the field will use less than driver for vast majority of rounds, so simply targeting accuracy is not best way to go.

Overall, aside from golfers form, I believe you must pay attention how golfer does on courses with very hard to hit greens and also how does the one do on courses where driving distance is restricted off the tee. Some of the guys you like are losing strokes on similar courses so, despite their better form, they might not be such a good plays after all.

Are you talking to me or Alan?
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Sherms:


Are you talking to me or Alan?

I think he's talking to Andy...
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


I think he's talking to Andy...

Any thoughts on my reasoning now? Posted for my picks
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Sherms:


Any thoughts on my reasoning now? Posted for my picks

I get the reasoning behind the picks...hope they all turn out to be 
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