Hogan Bracket (2)

5 Oosthuizen -140 v. 12 Van Pelt +110

Oosthuizen – 1 appearance out in rd 1. After winning in S. Africa, has gone: MC, 37, 62.

Van Pelt – rookie. Has MC in 4 of 5 starts this year. But the one he made was an 18 in the desert at the Waste Mgmt.

Lean – pick your poison. I'll probably lay off this one and look to fade whoever wins it in rd 2.

6 Quiros -220 v 11 Yang -170

Quiros - out in rd 1 each of the last 2 years. Maybe nobody hotter this year: 23, 8, 2, 1. You'd certainly think his length would be a huge advantage on this course.

Yang – 1 win in 2 appearances. Has had success in AZ, including 8^th this year at the Waste Mgmt.

Lean – Quiros is hot and his length should be a big factor here. If he had any better match play record, I'd think about playing him to win the event. I'll wait to see how he does in rd 1 and see how much the juice drops as he advances.

7 Allenby -115 v 10 Fisher -115

Allenby - Just a 2-5 record since reaching the quarterfinals in 2005 Just a 2-5 record since reaching the quarterfinals in 2005. After a very slow start this year, had a nice 4^th at rivieria.

Fisher – out rd 1 last year, finished 4^th the year before. Had one bad round this year at Qatar, other than that has been pretty good, most recently 10^th at Dubai.

Lean – Allenby was definitely on it last weekend, but fisher has a slight length advantage and if he gets hot can make a lot of birdies. I might lean fisher here, mostly because I expected to see Allenby be about -140 or so.

8 Fowler -150 v 9 Hanson +120

Fowler – rookie. Halved E. Molinari in the Ryder Cup. 3 starts this year all made cuts, all 35 or better, including 13 in Phoenix.

Hanson – 3 starts, out in rd 1 twice and rd 3 once. 4 starts this year, 2 top 10's. Most recently 9^th in the tough Dubai field. Mickelson beat him handily in the Ryder cup.

Lean – I don't understand the love affair with fowler, not yet anyway. Most of his good finishes have been in weaker fields in tournaments where the winning score is somewhere around -20. Until he throws more good finishes in there in real good fields, I think he's regularly overvalued. I'm gonna take a shot with Hanson. What does scare me a little is a lot of Fowler's success has been out west, but that's not enough to get me off this one.

Fowler had 4 top 6 finishes last year in very strong fields (Quail Hollow, The Memorial, Torrey and Scottsdale).  He added 3 more top 5's in weaker fields at the end of the year.  Plus he showed balls of steel on Sunday in last year's Ryder Cup and had a stellar match play record as an amateur. 

Whether he does well this week or not is irrelevant to me, but, any golf expert worth a grain of salt knows he's legit. 

Quiros/Yang is a toss-up.  I would lean Yang just for value.  He is long enough off the tee and won't be bothered by Quiros' length anyway.  You don't rip a major out of Tiger's hands on Sunday and let something like driving distance bother you. But, you are right about Quiros' play lately...hard to find anyone playing better right now.

I like Fisher over Allenby.  Allenby is a choker. Period.  Tee to green he is as good as almost anyone.  Can't putt to save his life though.

GL to you with your picks.

Erickson - I'm not saying he's not legit, and not saying there's nothing to like about him.  I'm just saying that because he's a media darling and fan favorite, he's regularly matched up and priced as if he were already one of the proven elite and I just don't think he's quite to that yet.   Kinda like the Vikings and Cowboys at the beginning of the NFL season last year.   Consequently, I think there's often value in fading him for now.

blairaj, nice write ups all around

I think Fowler has ice water in his veins and that is why his odds are so high, because of the remarkable last 5 holes at the ryder cup