+$3,631 YTD
9-0-2 in match-up picks
Very good week last week having Taylor and Hoffman before things teed off. Would have deintely preferred a Hoffman win for about $2k more but won't complain about hitting Taylor at long odds. Time to turn the focus to the Genesis and a small field. All the big boys playing so have to be looking for pre-tournament value on some long shots and then adding in guys if they don't start out strong and their odds get more attractive.
I have several different strategies I use during a weekend (like to add guys Saturday at longer odds that are still in striking distance, take long shots before they tee off, add the best players after a round or two if they've not played well so far, build positions late Saturday and early Sunday to fill in the gaps on the leaderboard when I don't have certain guys yet, round leaders of value when they start out a round hot and are at attractive odds still, etc.).
How do I make my picks before they tee off? I look at several things. Form is important but not always the best indicator because all these guys are good and with Hoffman as an example, you never know when they'll catch lightning in a bottle for a four day stretch. So who plays a certain course well (horse for the course) and is in decent to good form is a big one for finding longer shots. Also, are they great putters, are they big off the tee and it's that sort of course, are they great ball strikers, etc. Nothing unique with any of that. I do not take anyone below around 80-1 before they tee off and most pre-tournament picks are 100-1+. So many studs in any event but especially the limited field events that there isn't a ton of long term value in a 10-1 guy each week (unless he's 10-1 at 4:00 Sunday and I don't have a position in him yet).
I am open to any ideas, different approaches, other betting strategies, angles, feedback on fits for a course, intel from caddies people know, comments in the press around a player's feel/comfort level on a course, weather/wind angles, player's personal life impacting their current play, injuries they are working through, etc. Hell, I'll take a genie in a bottle if they can help us win!
I have been sprinkling in some match up picks to help subsidize the big/high payout plays to win but I don;t use match-ups as much as I do "to win" plays which are my primary focus. But at 9-0-2 (11 plays, no losses yet), I will continue to ride the match-up revenue stream as it allows me to be more aggressive in the "to win" action.
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