San Diego at New England (01/20/2008)

Just want to say thanks to many of you....been reading all year and appreciate insite......Wish my local took the half!! (BigD), but at least he doesn't screw me on the push....what's up with that? 

I am def a Pats homer and have been waiting for them to return to early season form (blow out city).  Have a feeling they will cover this week....too many injuries for the Chargers and too much on the line (History).  If Rivers can't go, can Volek put up points in Gillette???? The short passing game will be key...keep moving them chains....Pats roll.      

 

Well it can be sunny, BUT the wind can affect the passing game big time.  Weather forcast has wind gusting up to 22 mph.

The last time the San Diego Chargers went to New England, they had Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and a healthy Antonio Gates.

They lost anyway, 38-14.

The Chargers may have beaten the Indianapolis Colts 28-24 on Sunday without their top players, but they'll have a hard time keeping up with the unbeaten Patriots in the AFC title game if they're still out.

Back on Sept. 16, a Sunday night game in the second week of the season, the Patriots were just getting started on their 16-0 run and blowing away anyone in their path. Their margin of victory dropped markedly in the second half of the season, but New England will still be 17-0 when it plays host to the Chargers next Sunday.

The first question for San Diego is the health of Rivers and Tomlinson, its starting quarterback and star running back, who was the 2006 NFL MVP. Both injured their knees against the Colts and their status isn't yet known for the conference championship. Gates played with a toe injury, but clearly wasn't at full speed.

So Brady may not have as much time as he had Saturday night in completing 26 of 28 passes, an NFL playoff-record 92.9 percent. But the Chargers don't cover nearly as well as Jacksonville, and Randy Moss is most-unlikely to be limited to one catch for 14 yards, as he was by the Jaguars.

Good Luck SD, you will certainly need every ounce of it.

I see a small blowout here. That line is a trap! it should be 21!

The Pats will go 18-0 this Sunday

They they will go..... and you read it here first

18-Won!

With this being said recalibrate Final score

NE 28

SD 7

Alright...finally back and able to post again...

only have a 2 day week to bet last week so i got up early and then blew it all on the boys and the over...took me a while to get over it....

this week...1 day, 4 bets to make...gotta make the most of it..

Why is it as the season has went on that the high powered, quick strike passing attacks have all the sudden wanted to become "balanced"??? (Fu@k  you Wade Phillips)...

The one thing that I love about San Diego is that they are always there to limit the big plays after catch...meaning if you're going to score long on them, you better be behind them because if you catch it in front, they are not going to miss the tackle..Chargers also have some very athletic recievers in Jackson and Chambers that are capable of making the big play on any given play...

However, this is what the Patriots have been playing for all season...gearing up for this game thinking that it was going to be a rematch against the colts and that in everyone's eyes this would be the real super bowl...I expect them to take the intensity they would have had if it was against the colts and take it out on SD...

Too many personnel factors right now for me to go with any confidence...but I have ran the game w/ LT, w/o LT, w/rivers, w/o rivers...average still came up close to the same

New England 34

San Diego 13 

10 POINT TEASER

NEW ENGLAND      -4

GREEN BAY           +3

NYG/GB                +30.5

 

TAKE IT TO THE BANK.....

 

Well said 

I've got it at:

Pats - 31

Chargers - 13

Most of us can agree that this game is more difficult to get a handle on that the Giants @ Green Bay game.  That being said, I've been turning this game around in my head since Sunday and this is what I have come up with . . .

The Colts season ended after key defensive players went down (i.e. Freeney, etc.).  That Colts club bearly bested the lowly Chiefs, while playing *IN* Indianapolis  I knew the Colts were a fraud and still (like many) I bought the hype and lost.

Aside from this, I think Indy was aware of their "pretender" status, and didn't really feel like going to Mass. and adding to the Pats glorious season by losing a game that would be viewed as "The Might Patriots exacting their revenge on the Colts".

In their heart of hearts, they knew this would come to pass; so Indy said "fuck it".  And really, I commend them for it (even thought it cost many).

So what does that have to do w/ this game?  Maybe nothing . . . maybe everything.  It all depends on one's P.O.V.

First off, and most obviously, the Chargers will not advance to the Super Bowl . . . period.  SD plays with a lot of intensity, but even they know that it is better/less shameful losing a Conference title game than it is to lose the Super Bowl (which the most certainly would after getting even more banged up by the Pats).

The saying goes that "defense wins championships".  The Chargers are the better defensive team (I think most in here would agree on this point); but they are going to need more than forcing a couple of turnovers and setting up that same number of FG's to beat the Pats.

And when the Chargers go to look for that "something more", what they will find is an empty bag.  Rivers (an overrated QB to begin w/) will start the game, and likely not make it to the 2nd half.  Same story for LT.  Both players competitive drives will take over and they will leaves themselves vulnerable while trying to do too much.

As for the Pats, they only managed 3 points in the 4th quarter of their win over the Jags.  I reckon part of that is due to the fact that they simply weren't interested or able to put in the same effort as they'd put into the previous 3 quarters; but either way the meager point total has too make them at least a lil' disgusted w/ themselves.

They were saving their strength and energy, however, so it's understandable.  Saving themselves for a title game.  Well this *is* that title game.  The Chargers may have been able to fudge their way thru the final quarter against the Colts, but they will not fare so favorably against NE this Sunday.

There may be weather to contend with . . . so what, it's part of the game.  The ultimate question is, "can the Pats cover?"
 . . . you bet your ass they can.  Can and WILL.  Norv Turner isn't much of a coach and his players talent has carried him as far as they can.  This is the end of the line for the Chargers Express.  Better luck next year fellas.  Cheers.

Well with this being said, my 49.5 under bet I got before I left Vegas last weekend is a winner, I hope

Just happen to be walking by when the line opened at 50 at the Monte Carlo.

I see posts here from guys that posted that the Colts would win Big , Mop up , against the Bolts. They even posted their scores of , 29 to 17 , 27 to 0 , 42 to 0 Colts winning.

Guess I'll go Bolts money line.

 

I'm liking the under myself.

Always said the Bolts did and would play the Colts tight, told everyone to take the points in that one. But don't be fooled here. The Bolts have played their best game. This one will be a repeat of their earlier match-up. 38-14-ish

I 'm liking the 10/2/2002 game where the score was 41 to 17 Bolts in New England.

I know they lost to the Pats twice since then, but wtf. Bolts

https://www.weather.com/outlook/events/nfl/gameforecast/54344?eventid=239438

It's all about the weather rekamyenoM.  Big difference playing in 32 degrees with no wind as opposed to 7 degrees and 20 mph winds.  Hence the good feeling about the UNDER bet.

28-7 Pats.

Maybe wrong but I have a good feeling.

GL All whatever and how you bet

Well you under boys may be in trouble. Weather changes quickly. As of today, the latest outlook is Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 22. If that holds, don't expect weather to be a factor. Take the over before it starts moving up.

DaBull

New England Patriots -14 over San Diego

There's a saying out there and it goes like this. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. To start this analysis let me take you back to the AFC Championship game last year, the last "real" game the Patriots lost.

They had played New York in the Wild Card round and won easily. Then they had to fly all the way out to San Diego who had the first round bye. Some breaks went their way and the Pats got out of SD with a win. Then they traveled across country back home to New England to prepare for the Colts. Then they had to board another flight out to Indy and for the first 2 and a half quarters of that game, looked as if they were on their way to the Super Bowl once again but then a funny thing happened. They wore down. All the travel, all the wear and tear, their defense just fizzled out and they couldn't stop the Colts at all. Indy ended up winning the game by 4 after falling behind 21-3.

Let's fast forward to this year. The Chargers played at home against a tough Tennessee team and escaped with an 11 point win with 17 unanswered points in the 2nd half. They went out to Indy last week and were pretty much beaten up as Tomlinson and Rivers both suffered injuries that will hamper them this week if they even suit up at all. Don't forget about Antonio Gates either, as he is banged up as well. They did a great job winning that game but then they had to travel back home. Then they'll travel across country either Friday or Saturday where they will make their final preperations to play on Sunday where the high is supposed to be 26 degrees. I feel that even if they get off to a good start, which would be shocking to me to begin with, they will wear down. This is just one of my theories as to why they will get their asses kicked in this one.

Let's look at some more reasons why they won't stay in this game.

1. They are a warm weather football team playing in the cold weather. That normally doesn't mean good things but that certainly isn't a definite fact either however, favor New England.

2. They have played 2 games so far to New England's one and they are the ones who had to do all this traveling while the Pats have been able to pretty much sit back and relax. Favor New England.

3. Their three best players on offense are banged up while New England is as healthy as you could be at the this time of the year. Favor New England.

4. The Pats beat this team the last two times they have seen them and the last time San Diego made this trip, they lost by 24. Favor New England.

5. Norv Turner and his coaching staff vs. Bill Belichick and his. Need I say more. Favor New England.

6. The most obvious reason. The Pats are the best team to ever step on an NFL field and they won't let a team like the Chargers ruin what has been a dream season. Plus, San Diego is already shooting their mouths off with one idiot during a locker room interview even saying "New England, who's that"

Folks, they are going to learn who New England is real soon. They are going to learn the hard way too as it wouldn't surpise me at all if the final score of this game was something like 41-13. Rivers isn't healthy, neither is Tomlinson and Gates has a messed up toe. There is no way on earth this offense is going to put enough points on the board to hang with the Pats offense because no one has stopped the Pats offense this season. If Jacksonville couldn't stop them with that defense, if the Giants couldn't stop them with the way their defense is playing, the Chargers ain't stopping them on the road.

Everything, and I mean everything favors the Patriots in this game. I'll glady put my name, my reputation and my revenue on the line with this team here on Sunday.

It should be a blowout and that's exactly what I feel it's going to be. Remember this, if not for a Marvin Harrison fumble, San Diego was about to be down 14-0 very quickly in their game vs. the Colts and at the very least it would have been 10-0. They did a great job bouncing back and making plays, I'll give them that. They did a great job winning that game, I'll give them that. BUT, they are no where near what New England is and that will be evident once gametime arrives.

Blowout city folks, Blowout city. Take the Pats.

Game Analysis
The computer predicts that New England Patriots has a 89 % chance of winning the game and expects them to win by a score of 32 to 17. The simulation predicts that there's an 9 % chance that the game will result in a close win by New England Patriots and a 70 % chance that New England Patriots will win big.

And where can we find "the computer"?

 

I have seen IMO used before much like bigdaddy has above. What does IMO mean?   Thanks