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Minnesota at New Orleans (10/06/2008)

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Fpronk

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 2352

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 12:17 AM ET #26

Early analysis has me thinking the Saints cover by 10 - 14. Still trying to determine why the 3 point line.

Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

ontheedge

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 394

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 12:24 AM ET #27

I look at a lot of the posts on here and respect every one of them...

Sometimes, you cant look at "Well this team is 1-7 against the spread, and there not good on grass"...Granted, every inch does count, and having every edge is very important, but in a game like this...I would never put my money on a 3rd string QB coming into a place like NO and thinking they will get the win...They play with so much emotion in that building that, even with all the respect I have for MN's Run D, AP, and there O-Line...They wont be able to score at will like the Saints will.

I havent backed the Vikings all year, and at times (GB, TN) have bet against them because I knew there QB wont get the job done...A lot of people may read this and say " eh, there are 50 other guys on that team"...I agree with that, but the toughest and in my opinion, most important position is the QB (2nd O-Line) and MN doesnt have that going for them...Expect at least 2-3 Turn overs by Gus...

Brees gets the job done in there first Prime Time game and MN go 1-4 ( as unreal as that sounds, thats why its going to happen)

Good Luck Every one

Saints -2.5

ontheedge

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 394

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 12:28 AM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

This line seems low. Basically a pick if you go with the theory that the home team is a 3 point favorite. Am I missing something?? Seems like the line should be at least Saints - 6.

I think it will get to 4 by Game time, but not more...Any more and they scare off the public from backing the vickings, so they have to make it appear that this game will be close. If you can, buy it down to 2.5, that way you dont lose from a late cover...Which I dont think it will happen, but its saved my ass on the Denver game today...

tillytally

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 1

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 12:35 AM ET #29

Saints -3 easily here, Vikes will be lazy and full from the Gumbo.

byabeach

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 2630

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 1:33 AM ET #30

new orleans

pacedom

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 68

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 2:04 AM ET #31

Saint -3 I'm hoping the home turf helps a bit..

redwally

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2005

Posts: 3773

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 2:05 AM ET #32

Wow i gotta look into the matchup even more... I was leaning to Minny

I'am not puttin big bucks on the contest($50), but I do want the cash in the right spot....

ronnie101

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2006

Posts: 389

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 3:28 AM ET #33

here is what we should all be thinking.....

What would I make this line to be ??

Wy is it 3 if the saints are that good then why not 7 or even 6, 6.5 ect. ect ext.....

I see the line at some books going to 3.5 is that becaus money is going on the saints or maybe the vikes and they want you to see it that way like the eagles game yesterday going to 6.5 when i knew that money was going on the skins game , which by the way that is where i was too.. Anyway back to the game Some stated the saints dont have a run defense well then why not take the over..

IMO the over is the way to go and the safest to, and you can enjoy the game at the same time. As foer me I like the crowd there down south Dre Brees vs whats his name Forot?? Probably a little money on the saints and more on the over Minn has not proven a thing to me this season.

zOrO-GZA

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 730

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 4:43 AM ET #34

If Vikings don't win here ATS and SU, then Vegas is the New Santa Claus.

am i missing something?

new strategy? let the public (96%Ind) (95%NE) (93%Cin) take all the money?

Happy New Year!

rod_steel

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 102561

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 6:06 AM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by tiasman:

Minn cannot score. Minn definitely cannot score as many as the Saints will score on them.

Saints 1st half, Saints game.

Every week in the Minn game threads the same thing gets said over and over again Adrian this Adrian that. Minn has no QB and no WR and the Minn backers will be dissapointed again I think.

Well said

kireiricky

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 69

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 6:20 AM ET #36

You've got to like the home dog here. Saints are no doubt a high powered offense backed by one of the top 5 QBs in the league with brezzy. Colston is by far not an issue at this point with the saints proving they can win without him.
The Vikings on the other hand are backed by Frerotte, thats about all i need to say about that. Interceptions is going to be the name of the game, with only adrian and the defense to give them a little spark, but it will be too late as they will be in between rock and a hard place.
I have no idea why everyone stops using there brain and making this game bigger then it is. Vikings have only won 1 game this season, what makes everyone think that they are going to go 2-3 in this game vs a strong saints team. CAPPERS ARE TRYING TO TRICK YOU AND MAKE YOU THINK!!! DONT FALL FOR IT. I mean sure if saints are soo good why isn't the line 6 or 7.5? just take what the betting gods give you, would you rather the game be -7.5?

The lines this week in most part were pretty weak. There were a lot of oppurtunities to cash up in your bank-roll. I say this is another one.

SAINTS -3 (lock)

and since its monday night and the fact that saints def lets in a lot of scores, and with brees scoring a lot on the def.

OVER 46.5

24-31 SAINTS

nohype08

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 86

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 6:24 AM ET #37

I heard the same garbage yesterdayt about the Steekers beiung in a "bad spot", past history, blah blah blah. As I always say, the past means nothing regarding today. Up 9 units for the week, ending it tonite with a small play on New Orleans. GLTA, and great call with kudos to everyone else who had Pittsburgh last night.

nohype08

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 86

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 6:28 AM ET #38

Kireiricky - good post. I see WAY too much over-analyzing on this site, people wasting energy on public money, trying to uitsmart Vegas - little hint after 25 years - that won't happen. Develop your capping system and make smart plays, period. I dont give a rat's a*s where public money is and I have won 11 of the past 14 years, and way up this year so far. Not to mention all the numbers online for public money are bogus anyway. I spend maybe 20 minutes capping every week and pick my strong 3 plays and go. That's NFL, college may take 30-40 minutes. Good luck all - and stop over thinking.....

nohype08

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 86

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 6:33 AM ET #39

Bad Spots do not exist in football, just to help you younger players on this site. Bad spots only exist in basketball, that term refers to a team playing several games in a row, or at the end of a long trip and finding themselves up against a rested opponent they have problems with THAT year. Bad Spots do NOT exist in the NFL - everyone is playing on the exact same, level playing field - all teams play their 1 weekly game. So please realize this difference, it is a big one, and cap accordingly. GLA.

zOrO-GZA

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 730

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 6:39 AM ET #40

Betting Trend

New Orleans Saints -3.0 (87%)

Total Game Over 46.5 (81%)

New Orleans Saints ML (41%)

if kireiricky is right, everybody gonna win this monday night.

Vikings +3.5 (5 Units)

kireiricky

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 69

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 7:41 AM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by zOrO-GZA:

Betting Trend

New Orleans Saints -3.0 (87%)

Total Game Over 46.5 (81%)

New Orleans Saints ML (41%)

if kireiricky is right, everybody gonna win this monday night.

Vikings +3.5 (5 Units)

its all good zoro im giving my 2 cents like everyone else, if im wrong im wrong.

come on though, your saying that EVERYONE with a right mind didn't bank on:
Panthers
Bears
Giants

For Example my picks this weekend:
10/05/08     Bears (Chicago)     -3.5
13:05 ET
10/05/08     Cardinals (Arizona)     -1.5
16:20 ET
10/05/08     Dolphins (Miami)     +6.5
13:05 ET
10/05/08     Chargers (SanDiego)     Under 44.5
13:05 ET     Dolphins (Miami)
10/05/08     Panthers (Carolina)     -9.5
13:05 ET
10/05/08     Giants (NewYork)     -7
13:05 ET
10/05/08     Titans (Tennessee)     -3
13:05 ET         (+105)
10/06/08     Saints (NewOrleans)     -3
20:40 ET

You just don't hit teams like that these days, which makes me believe something is fishy with the lines this week. Saints are just the icing on the cake.

Sambola

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 14

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 8:32 AM ET #42

iam a saints fan .but for the money take minn +3

mkan20

Rookie

Joined: Jul, 2008

Posts: 564

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 9:03 AM ET #43

im going with the over on this one. somewhere in the neighborhood of 31-21 saints. can the monday night scoring continue??? i think so.

GL everyone

blckndgldfn

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2844

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 9:42 AM ET #44

I'd like ta take the Saints in this one.....but I can't..........looks too good to b true......never works out that way.....ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT...jus lookd at Bodog and they got the Vikes listed @ +3.5(-130)........-130?........why the extra juice for bettin on the Vikings?....looks like Bodog needs money on the Saints.....cuz they got the Saints juiced @ -3.5(+110)........so they're paying YOU ta bet on the Saints.......no good Book can stay in business too long payin the gambler the vig like that.......I ain't bettin yet.....and I'll be back later taday ta confirm......but I'm leanin towards the Vikes for 2 units

blckndgldfn

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2844

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 9:44 AM ET #45

Adrian Peterson is prolly guna get 35 carries tanite for about 250 yards.........n Chester Taylor will pitch in another 12 for 80!!!!!

BreakaBookie

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 1743

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 9:48 AM ET #46

Sunday recap....

took Philly -7.... Seattle +7.5.....

Indy ML...... Cincy +17 Over 45.....

so i edged out a victory....

IM RIDING THE FAVORITE TONITE....

I think the Saints offense will be able to spread out the Minn Defense.... Peterson is going to cause problems, which is why I see a high scoring affair, but the superior passing attack will win this one....

this is turf... the game is played much faster....

I'm also going to ride the MNF OVER TREND....

is it me or have most of the games ths year been in the OVER????

Saints -2.5 Over 47 (reverse it)

blckndgldfn

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 2844

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 9:50 AM ET #47

If ya really hafta bet the Saints....I'd say the safer bet would be takin them -1.5 in the 1st half!

dencol

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 1718

Posted: Oct. 6, 2008 - 9:52 AM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by zOrO-GZA:

If Vikings don't win here ATS and SU, then Vegas is the New Santa Claus.

am i missing something?

new strategy? let the public (96%Ind) (95%NE) (93%Cin) take all the money?

Happy New Year!

All of you guys need to stop with the VEGAS stuff....85% this 72% that its nuts....Do you even have a clue? Vegas does not lose money and you have no clue how much public money is ...The sites you guys see have such a small sample its ridiculous. If the amount of money gets too high on one side the line moves to compensate. Take out the variables for the hot numbers (3,4,6 and 7) and the money will always be close to even....
Once again VEGAS does no lose....they mediate with a fee....They do not bet!!!!!