The lack of playmakers at the receiver position catches up with Jax in this game.
New England is 5-2 ats last 7 contests against Jax, and that was before this year's version.
New England has played in a ton of big games, Jax just had their 1st big one last week, and squandered away a huge lead to Pittsburgh to disappoint their backers losing against the spread in a squeaker.
New England had a spread of 11 spot against the Pittsburgh squad and covered it in week 13. This spread is the lowest New England home spread since week 13 as well. Prior to the line adjustment in week 11 against Philadelphia (when the spread went over 20 for the 1st time(24)), New England home spreads averaged -12.5. After the correction the home spreads averaged -19.37.
In this game with a spread of -11.5, the spread is actually less than pre-correction spreads (-12.5) were on the average.
The value lies with New England there as the home team.
Jax as a road team has gotten this many points or more 6 times in their history, two times in 1999 against the Bengals(+11) and Cleveland(+14.5) and responded with two straight up victories 41-10 (Cincy) and 24-14(Cleveland). Once again in 1998 an ats loss to Minny (-13.5) 50-10, then again in 1997 ats win and straight up win over Denver(-14) 31-23, and twice in 1995 once against Denver(-11) ats win s/u win 31-23, and Detroit (-12) ats loss 50-10. So it's feast or famine with Jax on these large spreads but overall they're 4-2 with 4 s/u wins. No doubt that the hedge bet for the moneyline is on full effect.
I'm going with the famine. New England is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ats when playing Jax at home. With the highest spread which seemed exploratory at the time (-7.5) in 2006, the Patriots mauled Jacksonville in a backroom play 28-3.
There is a historical, a straight up and against the spread, and recent form home spread advantage and big game participation advantage all in favor of New England. The only reason why New England didn't cover most of their last few home spreads was because they were unrealistically high due to the adjustments. Don't be fooled. There is no advantage that Jacksonville has on New England that has any validity other than hope. The spread was set so that it can still settle into -13.5 by the end of the week. It doesn't matter. It's all the same. Patriots win by two touchdowns or more.
I have no opinion on the over/under. Jax might not score.
New England -11.5 Get it now, and buy it down to the origninal spread if it has risen
Hope it gets to 15 or 16. 
OVER 48.5
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