Indianapolis at Washington (10/17/2010)

The Indianapolis Colts have started 5-0 in four of the last five seasons, with the only blemish being a 3-2 record in 2008. That adds up to a staggering 23-2 record since 2005. That’s why people are questioning this Colts team that is still tied for the best record in its division. Another cause for concern is their 0-2 divisional record, including a troubling loss to Jacksonville.

Even during their recent success, this team has been fairly one-dimensional on each side of the ball. Peyton Manning has led a lethal passing attack that has masked a poor running game. On defense, the gap between passing defense and run defense is even more pronounced. Bill Polian has built the defense based on fast, undersized players who excel in pass defense. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis form the best pass-rushing duo in the league. But this year, their opponents have run all over them, which has shortened the game and lessened the impact of the pass rush. Run-stuffing safety Bob Sanders and his replacement Melvin Bullitt are injured. Arien Foster and Maurice-Jones Drew exploited this flaw in each of the Colts' two losses. Last week against the Chiefs, it was the offense that let them down. Though they won by ten points, it was a 12-9 game late in the fourth quarter until Mike Hart put the game out of reach with the only touchdown of the day. Hart was put into action because of injuries to the Colts top two backs. Manning put up a pedestrian line of 26-44, 244 yards and an interception. It was an uneven performance for a team returning home after a bad loss. 

Indy’s spotty play may have surprised people, but the Washington Redskins are the real enigma in this game (and not because I am 0-2 picking their games). They have two close and bizarre division wins- beating Dallas 13-7 thanks to Tashard Choice's boneheaded fumble at the end of the first half, and skating to 17-12 win a team over by a Kevin-Kolb led Eagles team. Last week they added a comeback win over Green Bay to their resume, which sounds a little more impressive than it was given the Packers' injury situation. They had already lost Ryan Grant, Nick Collins, and Nick Barnett. It got much worse in this game, as their electrifying tight-end (Jermichael Finley), his back-up, and top pass-rusher (Clay Matthews) joined the injured list. Washington let one slip away against Houston, and their other loss came against the lowly Rams. The offense has been expectedly inconsistent this year. McNabb has been an upgrade over Jason Campbell, getting what he can out of a thin receiving corps behind Santana Moss and Chris Cooley. But the running game is mediocre, and has kept them from being a top-tier unit. The defense has had flashes of stinginess, limiting Green Bay to 13 points and Dallas to a touchdown. In between, they surrendered 30 points to the St. Louis and 526 yards to Houston. They are ninth in the NFL in points allowed, but dead last in total defense.

Which Washington defense will show up this week? It is hard to say, but the match-up may favor Indy. LaRon Landry's strong season as been a bright spot in the Washington pass defense that has cost them games. Manning an his array of weapons have the ability to exploit them. The interesting match-up to monitor will be the battle of weakness on weakness- The Redskins’ rushing attack versus the Colts’ run defense. Indy has been gashed on the ground this year, ranking near the bottom in every major category as well as 31^st in Football Outsider’s advanced rating.  They rate Washington as a more respectable 17^th in rushing offense. The team that capitalizes the most on the other's weakness will take this game.

The Colts, like the Packers last week, are giving three points to the Redskins. I’m glad I get to be reminded of how Green Bay relinquished the lead in the fourth quarter. However, that is not going to sway me from going against the home-town Skins for a second week in a row. I will take my chances that Manning will bounce back, and perform well like he always does in prime time. The Colts are not phased by going on the road, and will be tough to stop. Joseph Addai's status for the game is uncertain, so that is something to look for leading up to the game. Washington has played a lot of close games, but that is a dangerous way to play against Indy. Th Redskins seem like a .500 team to me, and that is what I think they will be after Sunday night’s game.

Indianapolis -3