Indianapolis at Jacksonville (01/01/2012)

Away:  Indianapolis [5-9 ATS]
Home:  Jacksonville [6-8-1 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: EverBank Field

Recent Meetings:
11/13/11 - JAC 17 vs. IND 3

Team Leaders:

Indianapolis:
Passing: Curtis Painter (1541)
Rushing: Donald Brown (621)
Receiving: Pierre Garcon (925)

Jacksonville:
Passing: Blaine Gabbert (2122)
Rushing: Maurice Jones-Drew (1437)
Receiving: Marcedes Lewis (427)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

Indy Colts  +4   all the freakin way

 

Indy is trying to avoid being the winner of the SUCK FOR LUCK sweepstakes....

4 pts is large in this one as I see it coming down to a game winning FG one way or the other.

Give me Indy +4

I dunno, all this hype about drafting Luck. IF I were a reciever on this team I would be dropping balls left and right, It would be in my best interest to do so in the long run.  Just sayin.

Then you'd get traded to like Miami, or Tampa, or Oakland, where all the outcasts and "problems" go........

See if you like this soap opera: 

Indy wins this game, St. Louis loses theirs, and they draft Luck, and he goes on to have a nice, wonderful, average career - no Superbowl appearances or rings or anything - maybe a playoff appearance or two, but all in all, just a solid average QB.......

Meanwhile, Indy with the second pick takes RG3 - no one sees it coming, and he becomes the next Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, etc., etc.

Indy doesn't renew Manning's contract, he goes to Minnesota, pulls a couple of deep playoff appearances (like Favre), and retires after a few seasons (or a career-ending injury).........

Oh, and I'll take Indy +4 

IND +4 (1u) - while it may be in the best interest to drop some balls on purpose, the Colts have already shown the desire to win, even meaningless games. The suck for luck bias is probably driving the line higher than normal. SCORE: Colts 17-Jaguars 15.

Guys, I agree that Indy should be able to blow them out. Orlavsky is an improvement, there is improvement all around. But I aint touchin this game. Easier money is to be had elsewhere in my opinion.

I am going to watch this game carefully though, to see if Indy recievers stumble and slip and miss catchable catches for future reference at the end of next season. OR if Indy pulls their better players, takes a knee with 30 seconds before the half and such.

The moneyline is enticing but the situation says danger. Even the Indy paper says that they have to find a way to lose.

5* - Jacky -3 (Wait until you get -3 or better)

 

This is a big game for Jacksonville and a throwaway for Indy.  Indy is coming off a huge emotional ‘come from behind’ victory in Wayne’s last home game which ended with his TD catch.  Secondly, they cannot afford to win this game and forfeit the most valuable NFL pick in the last 15 years!!  On the other hand, Jacky is playing their first home game in front of their new owner who was just approved by the league recently.  They want this game badly to give hope to their fans by finishing on a positive note.  They will also be looking to get Maurice Jones-Drew a rushing title.  The Colts are a terrible team vs. the run this year giving up over 140 yds/game and they will be lying down like the Bucs did in Jacksonville a few weeks ago (42-14). 

 

FYI – Most bettors are actually on the Colts after 2 victories…..This will be my biggest wager to date – Happy New Year!!!!!!

 

Mark

If anyone actually thinks the players are gonna play less hard, and intentionally try to lose the game, they are delusional. Indys players will play hard because most of them suck and are playing for jobs. Now where the "suck for luck" sweepstakes might come into play is if an owner were to go to an offensive coordinator, and say hey lets call this game a bit more conservative than usual. I think that could happen here, but the players aren't gonna play differently. 

Luck is no guarantee to be a franchise savior.  Look at all the #1 picks that have petered out over the years.  And if the want a QB, RG3 is still available at #2.  No players try to loose (well, outside of the NBA). 

However, my gut tells me that Indy peeked last week with their come-from-behind home win.  If they were 0-15, I'd take Indy, but not here.  Jax wants to go out a winner at home this week

JAGUARS -3.

It hasn't looked to me like Indy's players are trying to lose ... last week's effort against Houston proved that. While watching that game, I had the thought that maybe the owners want them to lose, but the guys on the field looked like they were playing to save Peyton's job. If you were a Colt, would you rather play with a QB who is (presumably) your friend and a guy you can trust or take your chances on an unproven rookie? Even if you answered Luck to that question, how about the veterans nearing the end of their careers who may not want to waste a couple of years losing during Luck's learning curve?

Gimme INDY +3 all day.

Im gonna say it....I TOLD YOU SO!!! Miller time.

[Quote: Originally Posted by mciaglia]

5* - Jacky -3 (Wait until you get -3 or better)

 

This is a big game for Jacksonville and a throwaway for Indy.  Indy is coming off a huge emotional ‘come from behind’ victory in Wayne’s last home game which ended with his TD catch.  Secondly, they cannot afford to win this game and forfeit the most valuable NFL pick in the last 15 years!!  On the other hand, Jacky is playing their first home game in front of their new owner who was just approved by the league recently.  They want this game badly to give hope to their fans by finishing on a positive note.  They will also be looking to get Maurice Jones-Drew a rushing title.  The Colts are a terrible team vs. the run this year giving up over 140 yds/game and they will be lying down like the Bucs did in Jacksonville a few weeks ago (42-14). 

 

FYI – Most bettors are actually on the Colts after 2 victories…..This will be my biggest wager to date – Happy New Year!!!!!!

 

Mark

[/Quote

 

Smart move and nice analysis.