Denver at Houston (12/13/2007)

Glad to hear you are going with Houston.  I took Denver pk.  I have a question though.  You refer to Denver 1-10 ATS after a straight up win.  That's using info dating back to last year's team.  Do you always use trends with your picks?  They are kind of worthless, perhaps that is why you are struggling?!?  Just a thought.  I like the old baseball trend, "This team is 32-3 after the 3rd game of a night double header in the rain in July against right handed pitchers".

Lynch hasn't been a difference maker since 2002. The Broncos might have a few more wins if they didn't kick to Hester or go for the TD vs GB.

If I had to make a pick for this game it would be Over 47.5, the Broncos have been lighting it up lately while Houston always puts up points at home.

That's a good one!!!

Good luck tonight.

I will waite till almost kickoff.......my local will probably move the line to 2 or 2 1/2 because he has so many favorite players that call him.  Darius Walker will have a big game tonight!! 

Maybe your right Junior08, you can rag me tomorrow after your Broncos get hammered by a second string QB with no running game to boot.

Heres some realistic numbers for you,

broncos are 1-5 ats in their last 6 road games

texans are 6-2 ats in their last 8 home games.

Not me........I hit both sides on N O and the over........I don't think Denver can cover thier ass with both hands on the road!!!!  Smacking around KC at home isn't what I call hot.....and neither is thier 4-9 record ATS.......GL....just don't blame me for you Denver pick the day after!

Here's a tip for when you think Vegas is right and the game will go as they say.  If you're betting online and your book has adjusted lines, then bet on both the adjusted lines.  You can do it for the spread or the over/under.

For example, for Denver@Houston, I have the spread at DEN -2 and the total at 47.  This means the score would be:

DEN 24.5
HOU 22.5

If you think the spread is accurate, then bet on HOU +7.5 and DEN +3.5:

HOU +7½
Risking:$100.00 To Win:$37.77

DEN +3½
Risking:$100.00 To Win:$44.44

If the game stays close and both bets win, you win $82.  You aren't really risking $200, though because
it is impossible for both of these to lose, but if one of them loses, you lose the bet.  Depending on which loses, you lose $62 or $56.

If you think the total is accurate, then bet on the high under and the low over:

TOTAL (DEN/HOU) u57½
Risking:$100.00 To Win:$25.00

TOTAL (DEN/HOU) o37½
Risking:$100.00 To Win:$25.00

So you have a 20-point range of victory that wins you $50. Again, it is impossible for both to lose, but if either loses, you lose $75.

The amount the spread/total is adjusted and the payouts change quite a bit from game to game so these numbers aren't accurate for every game but they are in the ballpark.

I remember at some point last year seeing the headline:  Think you know football?  Vegas does.  To this point in the season, there have been 100 overs, 99 unders, and 9 pushes.

So if they can be that accurate, try betting with them sometimes.  Good luck.