that line is just begging me to take the dolphins... why the hell else would they have dropped such a low point spread for the bills who have looked a lot more consistently legit this year. Either way I'm going to sit on it and watch the public move it up to a field goal for me. I can take time to do a little research before officially pulling the trigger.
MIA +1(or 3?) ... early thoughts.
that line is just begging me to take the dolphins... why the hell else would they have dropped such a low point spread for the bills who have looked a lot more consistently legit this year. Either way I'm going to sit on it and watch the public move it up to a field goal for me. I can take time to do a little research before officially pulling the trigger.
isnt it begging you to take the bills? Cant figure out this line
you could say it that way, but my point is that it is WAY too easy to take the bills here giving only 1 point against an inferior team, and as the public lines up behind buffalo, I just get the feeling that the books have the masses duped.
Quote Originally Posted by Osirus13:
isnt it begging you to take the bills? Cant figure out this line
you could say it that way, but my point is that it is WAY too easy to take the bills here giving only 1 point against an inferior team, and as the public lines up behind buffalo, I just get the feeling that the books have the masses duped.
that line is just begging me to take the dolphins... why the hell else would they have dropped such a low point spread for the bills who have looked a lot more consistently legit this year. Either way I'm going to sit on it and watch the public move it up to a field goal for me. I can take time to do a little research before officially pulling the trigger.
MIA +1(or 3?) ... early thoughts.
My thoughts exactly.
Quote Originally Posted by wangichu:
that line is just begging me to take the dolphins... why the hell else would they have dropped such a low point spread for the bills who have looked a lot more consistently legit this year. Either way I'm going to sit on it and watch the public move it up to a field goal for me. I can take time to do a little research before officially pulling the trigger.
+1 is basically the same as +3 gentlemen. I am undecided about this game right now, with the early lean on the Dolphins, since they are a natural grass team getting points at home against a turf team. they must find an answer for Marshawn Lynch in order to get the victory. Not a small order at all. But the public will be all over the Bills coming off of the win against San Diego coupled with the Dolphins home loss to the Ravens. Should be an interesting week following that number. ALl that I know is that Miami better not end up being favored come Sunday with all of that good Buffalo money
+1 is basically the same as +3 gentlemen. I am undecided about this game right now, with the early lean on the Dolphins, since they are a natural grass team getting points at home against a turf team. they must find an answer for Marshawn Lynch in order to get the victory. Not a small order at all. But the public will be all over the Bills coming off of the win against San Diego coupled with the Dolphins home loss to the Ravens. Should be an interesting week following that number. ALl that I know is that Miami better not end up being favored come Sunday with all of that good Buffalo money
Agreed. This line stinks... Buffalo's first game in the division all year, coming off a huge statement game against San Diego... I'd say they are due for a let down and after Miami got beat up at home they will be looking to bounce back...
It would be ideal to get Miami plus 3 though... I will likely wait til game time for this one...
Agreed. This line stinks... Buffalo's first game in the division all year, coming off a huge statement game against San Diego... I'd say they are due for a let down and after Miami got beat up at home they will be looking to bounce back...
It would be ideal to get Miami plus 3 though... I will likely wait til game time for this one...
NightCapper2383, +1 is basically +3 in football wagering. The +1 is a great deal considering the fact that the spread hasn't moved yet with 70% of bettors on the Bills. I have been a serious Bills backer up to this point, but this is a difficult position for them to get the cover.
NightCapper2383, +1 is basically +3 in football wagering. The +1 is a great deal considering the fact that the spread hasn't moved yet with 70% of bettors on the Bills. I have been a serious Bills backer up to this point, but this is a difficult position for them to get the cover.
NightCapper2383, +1 is basically +3 in football wagering. The +1 is a great deal considering the fact that the spread hasn't moved yet with 70% of bettors on the Bills. I have been a serious Bills backer up to this point, but this is a difficult position for them to get the cover.
how many teams won by a last second field goal this year?
Quote Originally Posted by Watch:
NightCapper2383, +1 is basically +3 in football wagering. The +1 is a great deal considering the fact that the spread hasn't moved yet with 70% of bettors on the Bills. I have been a serious Bills backer up to this point, but this is a difficult position for them to get the cover.
how many teams won by a last second field goal this year?
[Quote: Originally Posted by heavygunner] how many teams won by a last second field goal this year?
Excuse me if I don't get the rationale behind your question, and it's relevance to the point that I made. Allow me to retort. Football is scored with touchdowns, field goals, extra points and two point conversions and an occasional safety. Since extra points are rarely missed, and teams rarely go for two point conversions unless they have to, it is safe to assume that the bulk of the scoring is touchdowns and field goals. Therefore a hook, or half point and a 1 point spread are basically the same as giving a team a field goal. I don't have enough time to go into a lengthy description of what "key" point is. But any spread of 7, 3, 4, 10 or 14 are key numbers and books rarely like to get off of them. So basically any number between 3.5 an 6.5 means the favorite has to win by a touchdown. A 7 to 9 point spread means that the favorite must win by 10 to get the cover. A 10.5 to 12.5 spread means the favorite must win by 13 to get the cover. A 14 point spread means that a 17 point win is in order. So again when a team is +.5 through +2.5 means a field goal will get the cover. In this case, Miami is getting a field goal or a number between .5 and 2.5. +1 falls into that category.
[Quote: Originally Posted by heavygunner] how many teams won by a last second field goal this year?
Excuse me if I don't get the rationale behind your question, and it's relevance to the point that I made. Allow me to retort. Football is scored with touchdowns, field goals, extra points and two point conversions and an occasional safety. Since extra points are rarely missed, and teams rarely go for two point conversions unless they have to, it is safe to assume that the bulk of the scoring is touchdowns and field goals. Therefore a hook, or half point and a 1 point spread are basically the same as giving a team a field goal. I don't have enough time to go into a lengthy description of what "key" point is. But any spread of 7, 3, 4, 10 or 14 are key numbers and books rarely like to get off of them. So basically any number between 3.5 an 6.5 means the favorite has to win by a touchdown. A 7 to 9 point spread means that the favorite must win by 10 to get the cover. A 10.5 to 12.5 spread means the favorite must win by 13 to get the cover. A 14 point spread means that a 17 point win is in order. So again when a team is +.5 through +2.5 means a field goal will get the cover. In this case, Miami is getting a field goal or a number between .5 and 2.5. +1 falls into that category.
There have been alot of weird lines this season i.e. last weeks GB line where i took GB. And the Buff/AR line where i did take AR. But i think this is the week where the weird line doesnt come out as the home team winner. Take the obvious pick this week which is Buffalo. This line doesnt scare me as did the GB and AR line i mentioned earlier where i took GB and AR ....
There have been alot of weird lines this season i.e. last weeks GB line where i took GB. And the Buff/AR line where i did take AR. But i think this is the week where the weird line doesnt come out as the home team winner. Take the obvious pick this week which is Buffalo. This line doesnt scare me as did the GB and AR line i mentioned earlier where i took GB and AR ....
The bills will kill the dolphins this week. they are huge rivals towards each other and plus, i still don't think Miami is as good as they make them self's out to be. all i can say is-
LEEETTTSSS GO BUUFFALLOOOOOOOO!!!!!
The bills will kill the dolphins this week. they are huge rivals towards each other and plus, i still don't think Miami is as good as they make them self's out to be. all i can say is-
Miami +1 - Division game, at home, 70% of public on Buffallo. This is a trap line if I've ever seen one. This game falls into a similar scenario to the Buffallo/Arizona game. All the Bill backers thought that line was too good to be true. The sharps new Buffallo flying out West with AZ coming off that embaressing loss to the Jets was an easy win with AZ.
Now they face Miami, in Miami, in a Division game. Miami is the best 2 win team in the league. They struggled last week against Baltimore because they couldn't run the ball. Baltimore has the best run D in the league. Buffallo has an average run D. Ronnie Brown will and Miami will control the game.
Last point, Buffallo is coming off a big win against San Diego and now everyone thinks they are for real. Two probelms though. 1) San Diego is not a great team when they fly east. Look at their stats over the last few years. 2) Let's not forget that Miami also beat San Diego a few weeks back.
Miami and Buffallo match up closer than you think. With that kind of match up take the homer. Buffallo let's down here and Miami wins this one outright.
Take Miami +1
Early lean
Miami +1 - Division game, at home, 70% of public on Buffallo. This is a trap line if I've ever seen one. This game falls into a similar scenario to the Buffallo/Arizona game. All the Bill backers thought that line was too good to be true. The sharps new Buffallo flying out West with AZ coming off that embaressing loss to the Jets was an easy win with AZ.
Now they face Miami, in Miami, in a Division game. Miami is the best 2 win team in the league. They struggled last week against Baltimore because they couldn't run the ball. Baltimore has the best run D in the league. Buffallo has an average run D. Ronnie Brown will and Miami will control the game.
Last point, Buffallo is coming off a big win against San Diego and now everyone thinks they are for real. Two probelms though. 1) San Diego is not a great team when they fly east. Look at their stats over the last few years. 2) Let's not forget that Miami also beat San Diego a few weeks back.
Miami and Buffallo match up closer than you think. With that kind of match up take the homer. Buffallo let's down here and Miami wins this one outright.
My Dolphins is still a young team learning how to win. We have a qb that is a good game manager but has an arm that just cannot get the ball deep.
My Dolphins due to some critical miscues could not get it in the end zone from the red zone coming away with 2 field goals instead of supposedly 2 TD's last week. Another crucial mistake was the Pennington int for a pick 6 by Suggs . The Dolphins had to go away from their running game and it all went downhill from there.
Dolphins weakness as of late special teams coverage and if Parrish is back for the Bills he will hurt this special teams unit early an often. They have been working hard on it in practice but it could be a different story come game time.
We did release Crocker who has been burnt several times on big plays and just re-signed Culver but his impact is much greater on Special teams rather than the safety position.
I don't mind Pennington not having a BIG arm cause if used wisely he can go dink & dunk passing like the Patriots of old ( well early Brady ) and pull out victories. I have nothing against him but at times he seems hesitant to throw the ball due to his lack of trust in our Wr's. Just my opinion as a fan.
One thing the Dolphins do have going for them are 2 TE's that have been coming up big in games. The same problem San Diego has had this season gaurding against Te's is one that you should look at in this game. Our TE's came up huge in that game to pull out the victory.
If you guys feel that Martin & Fasano can have a big game against this Buffalo defense then you might be able to find value in taking the Dolphins at home in this one.
No play for me just a fan...
GO DOLPHINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My Dolphins is still a young team learning how to win. We have a qb that is a good game manager but has an arm that just cannot get the ball deep.
My Dolphins due to some critical miscues could not get it in the end zone from the red zone coming away with 2 field goals instead of supposedly 2 TD's last week. Another crucial mistake was the Pennington int for a pick 6 by Suggs . The Dolphins had to go away from their running game and it all went downhill from there.
Dolphins weakness as of late special teams coverage and if Parrish is back for the Bills he will hurt this special teams unit early an often. They have been working hard on it in practice but it could be a different story come game time.
We did release Crocker who has been burnt several times on big plays and just re-signed Culver but his impact is much greater on Special teams rather than the safety position.
I don't mind Pennington not having a BIG arm cause if used wisely he can go dink & dunk passing like the Patriots of old ( well early Brady ) and pull out victories. I have nothing against him but at times he seems hesitant to throw the ball due to his lack of trust in our Wr's. Just my opinion as a fan.
One thing the Dolphins do have going for them are 2 TE's that have been coming up big in games. The same problem San Diego has had this season gaurding against Te's is one that you should look at in this game. Our TE's came up huge in that game to pull out the victory.
If you guys feel that Martin & Fasano can have a big game against this Buffalo defense then you might be able to find value in taking the Dolphins at home in this one.
Also forgot to add that our nose tackle Jason Ferguson is nursing an abdominal injury and more than likely will not play in this one. He was a key loss last week against the Ravens due to Starks taking his place and not as effective at stopping the run. That also limits Porter and Roth to have a big effect in the pass rush as the Bills will probably try to run it down their throats.
Solai and Starks will probably be rotating at that position but Solai has still yet to prove himself in the NFL.
Also forgot to add that our nose tackle Jason Ferguson is nursing an abdominal injury and more than likely will not play in this one. He was a key loss last week against the Ravens due to Starks taking his place and not as effective at stopping the run. That also limits Porter and Roth to have a big effect in the pass rush as the Bills will probably try to run it down their throats.
Solai and Starks will probably be rotating at that position but Solai has still yet to prove himself in the NFL.
I'm with you Colonel. Buffalo is for real and this being a division game means all that more to them leading the division. They are going to play every game tough.
Quote Originally Posted by Coloneljim:
Buffalo - 20 Miami - 14
Bills -1.5 under 42.5
Miami's got the oranges Buffalo's got the juice.
Where the hell is the juice????????
Fish 0 - 8 ATS last 8 vs the Bills.
I'm with you Colonel. Buffalo is for real and this being a division game means all that more to them leading the division. They are going to play every game tough.
My thoughts exactly.
under 42.5
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