great analysis CMJ... I've been saying all along that CP3 is one of those game changers just like LeBron and Kobe in terms of the impact he can have on the game, irrespective of their different skill sets. The one thing I have to disagree on as a point of the matter is that any year previously, I'd agree with you on kobe, but as an avid laker fan and having seen him a lot this year, the only reason he didn't average 2+ more assists per game is because the whole team passed so well. Either way, Kobe must be recognized as a facilitator every bit as much so as a scorer. He DOES make that whole team much better, just like CP3 does, he's just a bigger, stronger finisher who is harder to guard in account with his size....
anyways... Like your plays... I'm going to add that first half over, given the way that the spurs come out and attack early.
One suggestion I would have is to make a double result play on spurs 1st half/ horny's game... Sportsbook.com offers them at least, i don't know what you use, but for something that has hit in the 3 NO based games this series, a +500 payout is a great play for even just a small investment.
good luck though man.
NO -4 (big) NO team total OVER 93.5 1st half over 91.5
Double result play "SA 1st half/NO game" (smaller play at +500)
Exactly! Glad to see others have spotted this. +500 for the S.A./N.O. HT/FT is a great price and I will be on it too! LET'S GET THIS DONE!
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Quote Originally Posted by wangichu:
great analysis CMJ... I've been saying all along that CP3 is one of those game changers just like LeBron and Kobe in terms of the impact he can have on the game, irrespective of their different skill sets. The one thing I have to disagree on as a point of the matter is that any year previously, I'd agree with you on kobe, but as an avid laker fan and having seen him a lot this year, the only reason he didn't average 2+ more assists per game is because the whole team passed so well. Either way, Kobe must be recognized as a facilitator every bit as much so as a scorer. He DOES make that whole team much better, just like CP3 does, he's just a bigger, stronger finisher who is harder to guard in account with his size....
anyways... Like your plays... I'm going to add that first half over, given the way that the spurs come out and attack early.
One suggestion I would have is to make a double result play on spurs 1st half/ horny's game... Sportsbook.com offers them at least, i don't know what you use, but for something that has hit in the 3 NO based games this series, a +500 payout is a great play for even just a small investment.
good luck though man.
NO -4 (big) NO team total OVER 93.5 1st half over 91.5
Double result play "SA 1st half/NO game" (smaller play at +500)
Exactly! Glad to see others have spotted this. +500 for the S.A./N.O. HT/FT is a great price and I will be on it too! LET'S GET THIS DONE!
The over under 183.5 in this one is a tough call. The last 3 games were right at 180. Actually 179, 180, 180, 209, 186, 183 respectively. 5 out of 8 in in this match-up have gone under the total. This could go either way. But if I were a betting man, and from the information I have been reading.... that 183.5 is right on the money. NO CALL FOR ME.
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The over under 183.5 in this one is a tough call. The last 3 games were right at 180. Actually 179, 180, 180, 209, 186, 183 respectively. 5 out of 8 in in this match-up have gone under the total. This could go either way. But if I were a betting man, and from the information I have been reading.... that 183.5 is right on the money. NO CALL FOR ME.
For a multitude of reasons, the least of which is NOT the home advantage, I am taking NO -4 for the game....BIG
I am going with the NO team over 1/2 BIG I am going with SA 1st Q (experience rules) 1/2 BIG I am going with SA for the 1/2 I am going with the over 1st 1/2 I am going with the OVER for the game BIG
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For a multitude of reasons, the least of which is NOT the home advantage, I am taking NO -4 for the game....BIG
I am going with the NO team over 1/2 BIG I am going with SA 1st Q (experience rules) 1/2 BIG I am going with SA for the 1/2 I am going with the over 1st 1/2 I am going with the OVER for the game BIG
Best message posted today. Under 183 bet the farm!
The trend has been NO blow outs at home which increases the chances of this game going under. 88% of the public is also on the over which is usually a bad bad sign for over bettors. I also agree its time to bet the farm on the under!
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Quote Originally Posted by Imprezive97:
Best message posted today. Under 183 bet the farm!
The trend has been NO blow outs at home which increases the chances of this game going under. 88% of the public is also on the over which is usually a bad bad sign for over bettors. I also agree its time to bet the farm on the under!
The over under 183.5 in this one is a tough call. The last 3 games were right at 180. Actually 179, 180, 180, 209, 186, 183 respectively. 5 out of 8 in in this match-up have gone under the total. This could go either way. But if I were a betting man, and from the information I have been reading.... that 183.5 is right on the money. NO CALL FOR ME.
Keep in mind that in the last three games bench players finished off the last 7 minutes or so of the game due to blow out.. There will be no scrubs at the end of tonight's game.
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Quote Originally Posted by rekamyenoM:
The over under 183.5 in this one is a tough call. The last 3 games were right at 180. Actually 179, 180, 180, 209, 186, 183 respectively. 5 out of 8 in in this match-up have gone under the total. This could go either way. But if I were a betting man, and from the information I have been reading.... that 183.5 is right on the money. NO CALL FOR ME.
Keep in mind that in the last three games bench players finished off the last 7 minutes or so of the game due to blow out.. There will be no scrubs at the end of tonight's game.
I totally get the spirit of the San Antonio play. I really do. I guess you could debate the "experience factor" all night.
In reality however, I just don't see it.
They're going to be overwhelmed in the 2nd half of this game and when they start fouling New Orleans in the last 4 minutes the Hornets are gonna' hit 80% from the free throw line like they have all series in this building and cover that spread.
All great dynasties eventually come to an end and San Antonio just hasn't been right this year - in my opinion.
Good luck all -
Hey Pronk - you hit those horses on saturday?
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I totally get the spirit of the San Antonio play. I really do. I guess you could debate the "experience factor" all night.
In reality however, I just don't see it.
They're going to be overwhelmed in the 2nd half of this game and when they start fouling New Orleans in the last 4 minutes the Hornets are gonna' hit 80% from the free throw line like they have all series in this building and cover that spread.
All great dynasties eventually come to an end and San Antonio just hasn't been right this year - in my opinion.
Wasabitis exactly right. In addition to no scubbs, NO scored 29 points total in the 2nd half last game and the over only missed by 4 points. I really like NO better in this but this is going to go over. NO will win by 7-10 not 20 in this one. GL
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Wasabitis exactly right. In addition to no scubbs, NO scored 29 points total in the 2nd half last game and the over only missed by 4 points. I really like NO better in this but this is going to go over. NO will win by 7-10 not 20 in this one. GL
styles is his wife and was taught how to handicap by him so pretty much everything she knows comes from him. Plus they probably talk about their plays with each other anyways. .
the other idea comes from guys like going gone, fish naked, and packersbackers... that being that styles is just an alias for CK so obviously he never disagrees with himself...
While I don't totally discount the latter, I think that believers of the latter discount the idea that a married couple would have a lot in common as far as how they talk, fiery combative personality... etc..
Either way, I don't really care that much, I'm here to win, and CK has given me some valuable knowledge to get my started in my first year of NBA handicapping and has helped me turn early profits, so I'll keep in touch with him and respect the fact that he's willing to take the time to share his picks and provide advice of his own volition.
oh and CMJ... I hear what you're saying, my point was really that I felt the statement should have read for the most part LIKE kobe, because he has been an amazing facilitator and only because he is bigger and stronger, and a bit of a better finisher does he wind up scoring more than paul, otherwise he would have an assist total much closer to paul (although I think that pauls relatively smaller size is what led him to be a better passer than even kobe, who's passing skills are sometimes overlooked). Bottom line, times when kobe would dunk or post up, are times when paul is more likely to pass... yeah he's a better passer than kobe, but also the entire NBA... kobe is not that far off though, he just has a different game, but just as much so, he has made everyone around him better... case in point lamar... his continued trust in lamar has him playing some of the best most confident basketball i have ever seen out of odom... anyways, i'm done stroking/defending kobe, i've just his evolution over the years and MVP kobe is a facilitator and a team enhancer.
That was probably more of a laker homer thing to do, but what can i say. I'm a laker fan. Anyways... good luck with those plays man, I'm dropping that first half over, it has only hit once of thrice in NO and I can't run with that. the way that these teams play i've lost more money than i've made on those O/Us so i'll just stick to the New Orleans engine
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Quote Originally Posted by joewashington:
Don't CK and Styles ever disagree?
2 schools of thought on that one
styles is his wife and was taught how to handicap by him so pretty much everything she knows comes from him. Plus they probably talk about their plays with each other anyways. .
the other idea comes from guys like going gone, fish naked, and packersbackers... that being that styles is just an alias for CK so obviously he never disagrees with himself...
While I don't totally discount the latter, I think that believers of the latter discount the idea that a married couple would have a lot in common as far as how they talk, fiery combative personality... etc..
Either way, I don't really care that much, I'm here to win, and CK has given me some valuable knowledge to get my started in my first year of NBA handicapping and has helped me turn early profits, so I'll keep in touch with him and respect the fact that he's willing to take the time to share his picks and provide advice of his own volition.
oh and CMJ... I hear what you're saying, my point was really that I felt the statement should have read for the most part LIKE kobe, because he has been an amazing facilitator and only because he is bigger and stronger, and a bit of a better finisher does he wind up scoring more than paul, otherwise he would have an assist total much closer to paul (although I think that pauls relatively smaller size is what led him to be a better passer than even kobe, who's passing skills are sometimes overlooked). Bottom line, times when kobe would dunk or post up, are times when paul is more likely to pass... yeah he's a better passer than kobe, but also the entire NBA... kobe is not that far off though, he just has a different game, but just as much so, he has made everyone around him better... case in point lamar... his continued trust in lamar has him playing some of the best most confident basketball i have ever seen out of odom... anyways, i'm done stroking/defending kobe, i've just his evolution over the years and MVP kobe is a facilitator and a team enhancer.
That was probably more of a laker homer thing to do, but what can i say. I'm a laker fan. Anyways... good luck with those plays man, I'm dropping that first half over, it has only hit once of thrice in NO and I can't run with that. the way that these teams play i've lost more money than i've made on those O/Us so i'll just stick to the New Orleans engine
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