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New Orleans at San Antonio (05/15/2008)

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Posted: #51
irrespective of using the word irrespective, that is a very impressive stat, mikeshelton... especially when you consider that Boston and LA both fall into the same trend...
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by mikeshelton31:

Just something to think about.

When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the San Antonio Spurs have a perfect 0-9 series record and a 3-6 Game 6 record. In the history of best-of-7 format NBA Quarterfinals series, teams (such as New Orleans) which win Games 1-2, lose Games 3-4, and win Game 5 irrespective of site have a perfect 19-0 series record.

Very scary trend for Spurs backers.  The other 2 series also fall under this category, does that mean the Cavs and Jazz will both be closed out??? I sure do hope NOT!!!  Now we have to incredible trends going against each other (the other being the Home Team trend of this year of course).  Which one will win?!?!!?  I'll stick this years since I think it's a little more relevant to this year.. and since I already got the Spurs

Perhaps, I'll put a bit on a teaser just to hedge myself....

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by mikeshelton31:

Just something to think about.

When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the San Antonio Spurs have a perfect 0-9 series record and a 3-6 Game 6 record. In the history of best-of-7 format NBA Quarterfinals series, teams (such as New Orleans) which win Games 1-2, lose Games 3-4, and win Game 5 irrespective of site have a perfect 19-0 series record.


That's definitely a stat you can't ignore.  BTW, the last time the Spurs lost an elimination G6 at home was in 1993 (against Barkley's Suns).
 
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Posted: #54
I dont think the spurs will push the pace,I think they'll do everything they can to slow down the game.  They'll live with outside shots as long as they clog the lanes and prevent cp3 from creating.  I think first half score 43-40 spurs and the game totals 94-89 spurs win but not cover
 
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NO 1st half
NO Game
Under Game
 
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by mikeshelton31:

Just something to think about.

When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-2, the San Antonio Spurs have a perfect 0-9 series record and a 3-6 Game 6 record. In the history of best-of-7 format NBA Quarterfinals series, teams (such as New Orleans) which win Games 1-2, lose Games 3-4, and win Game 5 irrespective of site have a perfect 19-0 series record.


Just outa curiosity... what's your source?
 
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Posted: #56

Going to take the over 1H and the spurs game.  I won't be taking the game over on the spurs at home again this year.  I've gotten burned badly twice with 4Q's that they just simply slowed the pace to a crawl after the entire rest of the game trended well over.

 

 
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Posted: #57
Kama  Who is Mikesheldon and were did he get that BS from. I don't care if he got it off the net (because it has to be true) or made it up. This game comes down to the home court advantage with the fouls, an experienced team in a closout game on there home court, a young team that knows they have one to give, and a 10-20 point diferential in all the games. Spurs are going to get out quick and never look back. Let see is it more likely that NO will cover 7 or Spurs blow them out?
Spurs 1st, Spurs and over tease. Spurs game -5 for insurance. GL all
 
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Posted: #58
OVER...OVER...OVER and with that this series is over too.  good luck all
 
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Posted: #59
Taking 1st half off -4 to many.
 
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Posted: #60
Heres some luck for you..
 
Yesterday I posted in the Celtics/Cavs thread that I have noticed the spread only coming into play in about 3-4 games since the playoffs started. Meaning favorites have either won and covered or lost outright. Basically meaning we've all been looking to just pick the winner...
 
So I thought to myself "Self, this is good logic, so ride it tonight. Bet the Celtics and the Lakers"....
 
Delonte West starts playing D like he's Scottie Pippen and the Lakers miss the cover as well I lose both.
 
I still think the theory has a high % for the playoffs. That coupled with the home teams winning and I will on the Spurs. Experience counts. You see it with the Pistons, you'll see it with the Spurs tonight.
 
Anyone else notice what I mentioned?
 
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Posted: #61
Spurs win but DO THE NUMBER (7) GOOD LUCK
HORNETS + 7 
Check Moneyline Might Be A Good Investment Tonight
 
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Posted: #62
I have been busy all day and havent checked the line since yesterday has there been any movement at all on the 1st 1/2?
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by BigTImeOtown:

Kama  Who is Mikesheldon and were did he get that BS from. I don't care if he got it off the net (because it has to be true) or made it up. This game comes down to the home court advantage with the fouls, an experienced team in a closout game on there home court, a young team that knows they have one to give, and a 10-20 point diferential in all the games. Spurs are going to get out quick and never look back. Let see is it more likely that NO will cover 7 or Spurs blow them out?
Spurs 1st, Spurs and over tease. Spurs game -5 for insurance. GL all

Im with you on the one.  Time to cash in a BIG ticket tonite.  

Spurs 1st

Spurs game -5 for insurance.

See ya at the ATM....

 
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Posted: #64
Got killed last night took both home teams and you all know the outcome BUT gotta go with the home boys again tonight
 
SPURS - 7                    
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by deadweight:

Hey CM, been watching you posts your analysis and picks for awhile now and have made some good $$$.  However, I am still new at sports betting and would like to learn more from people with experience like yourself.  If you don't mind...can you share some pointers on analyzin the line and money movements to determine which team has a greater chance of covering the spread?  Thanks
 
 


The biggest thing that I try and remember is that Vegas and the online books aren't stupid.  If they increase or decrease a spread, it's for a reason, and it's really not difficult to figure out the rest.

In this game, the line opened up with the Spurs -7 and the O/U of 184, and it's stayed there all day.  Without even looking at the percentages of where the money is coming in on ( I use VegasInsider.com, as do many others ) I would assume that it's pretty much around 50/50.  Low and behold...it is.  The spread money is 56 to 44% in favor of the Spurs most likely because of the ridiculous trend of home teams in this round and the moneyline is 52 to 48% in favor of the Hornets.  The reason for that is simply value.  The Hornets are a good team obviously, so laying 100 bucks on them to win 265 is a pretty solid bet. 

Now if the spread stayed the same all day, and the money was coming in on the Spurs -7 at 65%...the first thing I would say to myself is....why?  In that case, I would be on the Hornets.  Vegas isn't stupid, and if they thought they were going to take a bath in a game, they would instantly adjust it.  If that much money was on the Spurs, you would expect the line to go up to 8 or 9 to balance it out and get more money on the Hornets.  If the percentages are under 60%, Vegas is pretty much going to break even at worst.  And obviously if the money was coming in at 65% for the Hornets, you would expect the line to go down to 5 or 6 and get some money on the Spurs.

Not that difficult, but understanding how it all works can be very beneficial.  All too often I hear inexperienced bettors say "80% of the public is taking this team and the line hasn't moved!!"  It hasn't moved for a reason...Vegas and the online books are perfectly happy where it is.  For totals...I basically just watch for shifts in either direction...if the total goes up more than a point take the over and if it goes down more than a point take the under.  It pretty much is that basic.




 
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Posted: #66
Hornets R NOT READY for what is coming to them tonight.  Spurs will be focused and crowd will not let them down. And I will say it here, The spurs will go to N.O. and win game 7. But tonight the Spurs Win BIG. Everybody want a game 7 from these two teams, and the NBA will make it happen.  
 
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Posted: #67
A trend that has been lights out so far in this series has been taking the underdog in the first half.  The only game where the favorite for the game has led at halftime was Game 4, where the Hornets were flat right from the start.  When playing at home, the Spurs have had 55 assists to the Hornets 27 and have out-rebounded them 87-76.  The Hornets actually got more offensive rebounds than the Spurs in San Antonio, however weren't able to capitalize on them.  The ball movement is better, the defense is better, and the Spurs don't allow Chris Paul to create as many good opportunities for his teammates.  CP3 is averaging 7 assists per game on the road vs. 13 assists per game at home. 

No matter how many times I look at it there seems to be only one way to go here.  Road dogs are 4-1 in the first half...home favorites are 5-0 for the game.  Winning team has scored over 100 points in every game...but the totals have all been about the same...180, 180, 183, 186, and 209 when both teams shot 50%.  I'd stay away from the over/under here.

Hornets +4 first half
Spurs -7 game
Spurs team total OVER 95.5
 
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Posted: #68
Prediction:  

Hornets 47  Spurs  46  Halftime

Spurs 102   Hornets  89    Final


 
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Posted: #69
I think that this game will be close and therefore am having trouble picking a side.  I however am going to play the over. 
 
OVer Big 184'
 
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Posted: #70
CMJ, I agree with everything you said in your two posts.  Only question I have:  On the covers website, they are saying that almost 60% of the bettors are on the Hornets.  That number is the exact opposite of what vegasinsiders.com is stating.  Any idea where the covers number is coming from?
 
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Posted: #71
CM I hope that your prediction is right
 
I'll throw a little on the Spurs
 
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Posted: #72
CM, Where abouts N.H.?  Ma/N.h. border here.    Total is tough here agreed. Spurs in a MUST WIN AT HOME? I'll give 7 points. will be close but should cover. GL ALL.
 
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Posted: #73
LETS GO SPURS -5               
 
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Posted: #74
Addind first half over BIG advantage here
 
 
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Posted: #75
Covers get their numbers from Wagerline I believe. If you click on matchup>in-depth>consensus you can see its the 'experts' for those teams on wagerline. So.. they're not technically betting. I wouldn't trust it the least bit.
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