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New Orleans at San Antonio (05/15/2008)

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by BigTImeOtown:

Kama  Who is Mikesheldon and were did he get that BS from. I don't care if he got it off the net (because it has to be true) or made it up. This game comes down to the home court advantage with the fouls, an experienced team in a closout game on there home court, a young team that knows they have one to give, and a 10-20 point diferential in all the games. Spurs are going to get out quick and never look back. Let see is it more likely that NO will cover 7 or Spurs blow them out?
Spurs 1st, Spurs and over tease. Spurs game -5 for insurance. GL all

Otown, you're right.... I was thinking about those stats on the way home from work.. and the more I thought about it, the less I could believe it, and was just about to call him out for a source.  It's hard to believe that in 2-2-1-1-1 format of a best of 7 that stat is likely at.  If his stat is correct then that means a load of teams got closed out on their home court.... find that hard to believe, but I'm going to search what I can find.  Thanks for getting confidence back into the picks I already made today.  GLA and go Spurs!!!

 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by Patrick325:

Heres some luck for you..
 
Yesterday I posted in the Celtics/Cavs thread that I have noticed the spread only coming into play in about 3-4 games since the playoffs started. Meaning favorites have either won and covered or lost outright. Basically meaning we've all been looking to just pick the winner...
 
So I thought to myself "Self, this is good logic, so ride it tonight. Bet the Celtics and the Lakers"....
 
Delonte West starts playing D like he's Scottie Pippen and the Lakers miss the cover as well I lose both.
 
I still think the theory has a high % for the playoffs. That coupled with the home teams winning and I will on the Spurs. Experience counts. You see it with the Pistons, you'll see it with the Spurs tonight.
 
Anyone else notice what I mentioned?

If this is the case and you like this theory why dont you take hornets ML and Spurs -7, hoping that hornets win outright but your covered in case they dont win?  I have noticed that except for maybe 2 or 3 games that the team that wins SU covers ATS.

 
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Posted: #78
spurs 1st half--->  small play
 
spurs 1st half + utah---->small play
 
pitsburgh wraps up tonight----med play
 
I took the under in the pits game which was my first instict but I think it was kinda stupid with all that scoring power.  Never bet against 1st instint though-->small play
 
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Posted: #79
This is a crap shoot.  Take Western Bulldogs in Australian Rules Football on Sunday if you want a winner.  Bet it, go to bed, wake up Monday morning for work with extra money in your account.

HAHAHAHA....

M-U-S-T............S-T-AAAAA-Y.....A----A-----A---A-W-A-Y F-R-O-M   N-B-A     B-E-T-T-I-N-G.
 
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Posted: #80
.... One thing i have learned from TWO REAL ASS WISEGUYS WHO ARE MULTI-MILLIONAIRES OFF OF SPORTS BETTING IS : 1-THE REAL HANDICAPPERS OR PROFESSIONAL SPORTS BETTORS ARE THE ONES WHO MAKES THE LINE MOVES BECUZ OF THE AMOUNT OF MONEY THEY BET .......U CAN CALL THEM TRENDSETTERS.....
       2-THE REALEST HANDICAPPERS ARE THE ONES WHO CAN PUT THEIR BET IN BEFORE THE PUBLIC JUMPS ON THE SPREAD....
       3-THE REALIST HANDICAPPERS ARE THE ONES WHO DEPEND ON THEIR INFORMATION AND KNOWLEGE OF THE GAME TO PLACE THEIR BETS....NOT HOW THE LINE MOVES....
QOUTE FROM ONE OF THE RETIRED WISEGUYS WHO NOW OWNS LIKE 30 GOLF COURSES-  "NIGHTRIDAH JUST KEEP DOING WHAT U DOING...ALWAYS DO YOUR HOMEWORK AND PUT YOUR BET IN BEFORE THE PUBLIC JUMPS ON IT.THE PUBLIC IS LIKE PAWNS IN CHESS,TRUE FOLLOWERS....IF I PUT 1 MILLION ON A GAME ,100% OF THE  PUBLIC WILL FOLLOW MY LEAD BECUZ IM ONE OF THE MAIN WISEGUYS WHO WILL MAKE THE LINE MOVE.....A FIVE THOUSAND DOLLAR BETTER WONT EVEN MAKE THE LINE BUDGE....YOU JUST KEEP DOING YA HOMEWORK AND BUILDING YOUR BANKROLL AND SOON YOU CAN BE WHERE I AM......BET WITH YA MIND ,NOT YOUR HEART!!!!!!!!"
END QUOTE-        (THATS FROM A PRIVATE CONVERSATION FROM ONE OF THE BEST) I MET HIM THRU SOMEONE ELSE THAT WORKED UNDER HIM 10 YEARS AGO.......IT ALL ABOUT WHO U KNOW!!!!!!!
      DIDNT HAVE TIME TO STUDY SO NO PLAY FOR ME....WILL BE READY TOMORROW!!!!!!!I WOULD SAY GOOD LUCK BUT LUCK IS ONLY 25% IN THIS BUSINESS......PEACE OUT             
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

A trend that has been lights out so far in this series has been taking the underdog in the first half.  The only game where the favorite for the game has led at halftime was Game 4, where the Hornets were flat right from the start.  When playing at home, the Spurs have had 55 assists to the Hornets 27 and have out-rebounded them 87-76.  The Hornets actually got more offensive rebounds than the Spurs in San Antonio, however weren't able to capitalize on them.  The ball movement is better, the defense is better, and the Spurs don't allow Chris Paul to create as many good opportunities for his teammates.  CP3 is averaging 7 assists per game on the road vs. 13 assists per game at home. 

No matter how many times I look at it there seems to be only one way to go here.  Road dogs are 4-1 in the first half...home favorites are 5-0 for the game.  Winning team has scored over 100 points in every game...but the totals have all been about the same...180, 180, 183, 186, and 209 when both teams shot 50%.  I'd stay away from the over/under here.

Hornets +4 first half
Spurs -7 game
Spurs team total OVER 95.5

Your write up for the game is deep and insightful.  I like it alot.  The one thing you didn't cover is that the spurs have there backs against the wall tonight.  I have noticed that this year they have not handled the pressure to well.  I just cant see them covering tonight as NO definitely wants to close out this series now.  This is a tough game to take sides as either team can do it.  Playoff trends seems to say take the home team.  But trends are ment to be broken.  Me personally, I am on the over and only the over.  But either way good luck to the both of us as I hope we both win.

 
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Posted: #82
Ok big money tonight!!!!!!!!!!!! This game has a great 1stQ bet.
 
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Posted: #83
Add in Brisbane as well.

Sorry, back to NBA........





 
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Posted: #84
REK, hook meup with your 1Q bet tonight~! please.
 
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Posted: #85
Just want to say thanks to ALL, This is a GREAT SITE. No matter what side we all take, I get helpful information from all input. Thanks to covers, and thanks to all!! Gl to all!!.   BTY-- the game will go OVER the total. 
 
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Posted: #86
Right now i'm liking NO+ 1stQ, the past few games home or away NO has given spurs a run for their money. I will, also wait for moneymaker's play, he always sounds more confident than I do.
 
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Posted: #87
SPURS -6.5
OVER 184.5
 
Good Luck
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

  Winning team has scored over 100 points in every game...but the totals have all been about the same...180, 180, 183, 186, and 209 when both teams shot 50%.  I'd stay away from the over/under here.

I like your logic here seems solid but I think what you have to ask yourself if you think this is going to be a blowout.

Game 1 19pt blowout by NO total 183

Game 2 19pt blowout by NO total 186

Game 3 close game total 209

Game 4 20pt blowout by SA total 180

Game 5 22pt blowout by NO total 180

If SA blows out NO then it is about 75% chance that it will go under.All the blowout games have been under with the exception of one that went over by 2 points.

So in summary if you think SA is going to blowout NO then you have to play the under. If you think NO is going to keep it close then you have to play the over.

Personally I think if West and Chandler are not at the top of their games then SA should be able to pull away in the third quarter so early in the fourth quarter they will slow the game down dramatically thus facilitating the under.

Sorry for the long winded post but I had to put this down to feel better about my picks.

 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by JustFlipACoin:

REK, hook meup with your 1Q bet tonight~! please.

you got it......

 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by Patrick325:

Heres some luck for you..
 
Yesterday I posted in the Celtics/Cavs thread that I have noticed the spread only coming into play in about 3-4 games since the playoffs started. Meaning favorites have either won and covered or lost outright. Basically meaning we've all been looking to just pick the winner...
 
So I thought to myself "Self, this is good logic, so ride it tonight. Bet the Celtics and the Lakers"....
 
Delonte West starts playing D like he's Scottie Pippen and the Lakers miss the cover as well I lose both.
 
I still think the theory has a high % for the playoffs. That coupled with the home teams winning and I will on the Spurs. Experience counts. You see it with the Pistons, you'll see it with the Spurs tonight.
 
Anyone else notice what I mentioned?

 

this is actually generally true in football in basketball... the team that wins the game usually covers the pointspread... it fluctuates, but it comes out to something like 80% of the time that the team winning the game also covers the spread...

would have bit you in the ass last night, though...

 

however, in light of your observation, and the observation of mikeshelton, what does that tell you?

ML bets on NO, Bos, LA for game 6... any of them that lose, lay the points in game 7...

 
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Posted: #91
Right on Nightrida!
 
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Posted: #92
I love the first Q bet tonight! Waiting for a few more pieces of info before I post......
 
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Posted: #93
Not normally my style, but my play of the day is actually a prop.
 
Bruce Bowen over 13 pts, rebs, & assists
 
I see this as totally obtainable.  A couple 3's, a scrappy layup or two, a couple boards, and a few passes to Duncan and Parker.
 
Make $
 
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Posted: #94

Spurs -5 (2pt buy)

 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by kdawgy:

CMJ, I agree with everything you said in your two posts.  Only question I have:  On the covers website, they are saying that almost 60% of the bettors are on the Hornets.  That number is the exact opposite of what vegasinsiders.com is stating.  Any idea where the covers number is coming from?


Like mquang said...that is just from wagerline.com...which is a free site that anyone can use and make picks.  It's completely free, and doesn't mean anything as far as money goes.  I pick every game possible on there just for fun, doesn't mean I'm betting those games.  The only useful thing about it is that it shows where the public's minds are...usually a good thing to fade, especially during football season and the regular season for NBA!!

Just a little side note as well on the line movements/money movements...I DO NOT base my bets solely on that information.  I basically use it as a part of my research mainly when I'm on the fence about a pick, as I was today.  Initially I was on the Hornets as I said this morning, but after doing some more research and noticing that the number wasn't moving, I felt better about the Spurs.

backdoor_cover...I did take into consideration that the Spurs backs are against the wall...but not too much.  That theory never really worked out for me because I always tell myself, WHY are their backs against the wall?

GRIFFDOG...same here bro, mass/nh border...pelham

jimmysalas...I'm not necessarily against either side, and I don't have a lean as far as the total.  My prediction has the game going over by a solid margin, but it could just as easily be a lower scoring blowout since it is the Spurs and their style of play generally does not lead to high scoring games.  Like I said, the one game that really went over, both teams shot around 50% from the field...while on average this playoffs the Hornets and Spurs allow around 43-44% shooting...only behind the Cavs and Celtics, so that was a game that I would ignore for the trend.
 
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Posted: #96
NightRidah,
 what do u call a guy that always bet opposite from the public?
 
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Posted: #97
I like the 1st qtr over 46.5 Rekamyeno we on the same page? and leaning on the spurs for the half!!
 
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Posted: #98
I also went out on a limb here and did a prop bet.  Based on the stats from the first couple of games at San Antonio...I feel this is a really solid play:

Chris Paul  UNDER 34 Points & Assists (-130)

I'm figuring around 23 and 9
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by hardly covers:

NightRidah,
 what do u call a guy that always bet opposite from the public?


Smart

Rich

A good bettor


 
 
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Posted: #100
Wow.  Sometimes I feel like I'm in a rap video in here... know what I'm sayin'
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