Revisiting $15 Minimum Wage—Does it Work?

A while back, we discussed the minimum wage hikes in Seattle and used it to paint a picture of how the rest of the country might fare under a similar law. The outlook was not good, but the amount of data at our disposal was pretty limited.

Now that the city has been under hikes for almost two years, and because another hike is scheduled for January 1, it’s worth revisiting the statistics to see if our previous assessment holds true.

November Jobs Report

If you recall, the November Jobs Report for the U.S. showed that the Trump Bump was helping the entire country. A specific review of the state of Washington and Seattle area can shed light on how Trump’s impact has weighed against the minimum wage hikes in the city. To start with, Seattle is enjoying record low unemployment, and by and large the Trump Bump is raining money on the masses.

It looks like the minimum wage didn’t hurt at all . . . until we look at the data that matters: retail and restaurants. In November, the Seattle area saw a net nonfarm job increase of 3,600. Jobs that employ the bottom quintile earners, namely retail and restaurants, saw a net job loss of 1,200 and 3,100 positions respectively.

If you also note that November is far and away the biggest retail hiring month of the year, these numbers aren’t just bad; they’re devastating. Even more damning are the numbers for the whole state of Washington. If Seattle is excluded, then the state added 3.100 jobs in the food industry. Seattle’s loss is so extreme, that it puts the entire state in the hole by another 3,000 jobs in that industry.

The Trump Bump was unable to reach this marginalized group, and the rate of job loss is accelerating, despite statewide and national booms.

Long-Term Trends

November’s findings were nothing new. Food industry jobs have been in decline in the region since 2015 (when the first stage of the minimum wage hike went into effect), and despite desperate attempts by proponents of the wage to deny it, there is now an undeniable trend.

Many wage supporters will claim that the decline in restaurant jobs predates the minimum wage, but that simply isn’t true. From 2011 to the start of 2015, the Seattle region added 25,000 jobs in the industry, and 5,000 of them were added in 2014 alone. That rate slightly exceeded the rest of Washington, and it far exceeded national averages.

Since the wage hike went into effect, Washington has added another 10,000 jobs, while Seattle has seen a net loss. No matter how you try to spin it, the trend shifts correlate perfectly with the wage hike, and the statistics from the rest of the state eliminate other regional or temporary factors.

Whereas early reports were showing that the wage hike was a wash for wage earners, downward trends have now held long enough to make the overall impact detrimental. Bottom earners in Seattle are now bringing in less money overall than they were before the wage hike. But, that’s not even the worst part.

A Perspective on Data

All of these statistics have one thing in common. They do not separate the City of Seattle from the rest of the metropolitan area. Bellevue and Everett have not instituted the same wage increases, so there is disparity in measurement.

In order to better separate the data, it must be made clear that Seattle only accounts for 25 percent of the total population of the greater metro area. While there is less reliable data for job rates in each distinct city, most reports suggest that restaurants outside of the minimum wage zone have not slowed hiring.

That means that the situation within Seattle is substantially worse than the impressions you’ve had up to this point. Job losses for minimum wage earners are so extreme that they are causing a negative report for an area three times larger than the region that is actually suffering. To put this in context, consider this analogy:

Suppose we took four students and averaged their grades. The top three students in the group all have A’s, but the fourth student is failing. In fact, the fourth student’s grade is so low that it brings the group’s average below passing. Assuming a standard grading scale, if the three A students each have a 90 percent, then the failing student would actually require a negative score to bring them all down so far. Minimum wage earners in Seattle aren’t facing a setback. They are facing annihilation.

https://www.wealthauthority.com/articles/revisiting-15-minimum-wage-does-it-work/

Well Obama, another one of your failed policies.    

Over/Under:  Year zelo quits blaming Obama for everything

Of course it doesn't work. I have 6 employees. If $15 becomes minimum wage, I'll have 3 employees. Certainly, their should be a minimum wage - $15 is ridiculous and if you want to watch unemployment soar again and your burger at Wendy's double or more go ahead and raise it. It's always the unintended consequences that the socialists among us don't see. Like insurance company's walking away from the current morons healthcare plan or the doctors retiring. If you were considering medical school in 2009, I'm sure a high percentage decided against it due to a 2,000 page healthcare bill that we won't have to suffer with much longer.

what if they did see this. planning to "save them with food stamps rent subsidies welfare unemployment compensation ect ect  " and you are the bad guy for laying them off....

Yeah this topic is awesome..

by driving up the costs of Labor artificially,

through employment benefits mandating health insurance,

 through min wages

through workmans comp insurance.

driving energy costs up , new rounds of taxes fees regulations and models of hidden business start up costs

placing incentives to push jobs to targeted nations for the equipment investments and the ongoing elimination of Manufacturing Union Jobs led us to this point.

we are a nation of teachers or burger flippers.

we even out sourced the very simple skill of agriculture destroyed the cottage industry and continue to make elderly benefits to become even less buying worth then they once had.

Democratic Leaders are not naïve, or simply overlooking the intending consequences they have begun a feudal system the government grants to the states the authority to distribute set amounts to the poor . the dhhs gives this authority to its class of educated B>S or higher workers to distribute to the individual.

society is taught to despise these individuals for accepting charity.

and they vote for the individuals who took away their Jobs and gave them ebt benefits.  quite a racket they have rigged.

incidently a single mother of one through the benifts get about 4.00 an hour through ever angle she is entitled to unless she goes 100,000 degree through loans and then she is owned by the us government anyway

 

I would rather earn 3.50 an hour and be able to buy a house and new car for 6,000 be able to purchase a months of groceries for 50 fo5r a family of

then earn 15 an hour have a new car for 10k a house for 135k and groceries at min of 100 a week for a family of 3

How about a max on business profits and CEO wages?