7/28/16 Hillary Clinton says "Michelle Obama" @ +310 (0.50 to win 1.55)
Just crazy odds...Michelle seems to be a big player on the Hillary train, any reference to her will be a technique to advance her position. This is definitely worth a shot at this price
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
7/28/16 Hillary Clinton says "Michelle Obama" @ +310 (0.50 to win 1.55)
Just crazy odds...Michelle seems to be a big player on the Hillary train, any reference to her will be a technique to advance her position. This is definitely worth a shot at this price
Those ones look solid, but a Michelle Obama reference for me has to have at least a 50% chance. I'm shocked at the price...
GL
Michelle's speech and Hillary's will be polar opposites. Too dishonest in the money laundering and the corruption to squash Bernie are making her look dishonest. Michelle had no reason to look dishonest--just a mom.
I can't see any reason for her to mention Michelle Obama, but who knows.
Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:
Those ones look solid, but a Michelle Obama reference for me has to have at least a 50% chance. I'm shocked at the price...
GL
Michelle's speech and Hillary's will be polar opposites. Too dishonest in the money laundering and the corruption to squash Bernie are making her look dishonest. Michelle had no reason to look dishonest--just a mom.
I can't see any reason for her to mention Michelle Obama, but who knows.
Generally these specifics have very few direct phrases, I have studied these props and do not like the high juice. My thoughts would be to bet against phrases not on them though.
Generally these specifics have very few direct phrases, I have studied these props and do not like the high juice. My thoughts would be to bet against phrases not on them though.
Thanks for the input guys, but you've both ignored the odds here. Even if you only think there is a 30% chance that she says it, considerably less than half the time that is, it is still a +EV wager. The reason I think she will refer to Michelle (or why it would benefit her cause) is because she seems to be a figure that people from both parties respect and she has supported Hillary. There is a serious stir being made about her speech (which just sounded like typical political mumbo jumbo to me) and if Hillary wants to make herself appear to be a woman people can look up to, to continually draw a connection between her and Michelle supports her cause.
Regardless of any of this I have a bet that is worth +120 right now at my book @+310, so this is already a winner for me regardless of the outcome. This may seem ridiculous to you, but if one can consistently get this big of an edge they will win in the long run...
GL guys
Thanks for the input guys, but you've both ignored the odds here. Even if you only think there is a 30% chance that she says it, considerably less than half the time that is, it is still a +EV wager. The reason I think she will refer to Michelle (or why it would benefit her cause) is because she seems to be a figure that people from both parties respect and she has supported Hillary. There is a serious stir being made about her speech (which just sounded like typical political mumbo jumbo to me) and if Hillary wants to make herself appear to be a woman people can look up to, to continually draw a connection between her and Michelle supports her cause.
Regardless of any of this I have a bet that is worth +120 right now at my book @+310, so this is already a winner for me regardless of the outcome. This may seem ridiculous to you, but if one can consistently get this big of an edge they will win in the long run...
But when Hillary came out with the roll call to begin her speech (which Trump did not do), you were gold.
Plus, looking back, it makes sense that she mentioned her given she'll be the first female ever elected, so on a night where she is praising herself as a female, praising Michele makes sense.
Great bet Zamigo.
I did not and would not have played it.
But when Hillary came out with the roll call to begin her speech (which Trump did not do), you were gold.
Plus, looking back, it makes sense that she mentioned her given she'll be the first female ever elected, so on a night where she is praising herself as a female, praising Michele makes sense.
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