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    All Forums | Politics

    Help please! Why is Biden still paying 1.22?

    gutinstinctus
    VVreincarnated
    kings_duce
    StumpTownStu
    HockeyNight11
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 213
    Posts: 7
     
    gutinstinctus
    gutinstinctus
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    Posts: 1941
    Posted: Nov. 4, 2020 - 1:13 PM ET #1

    Wrote this in NFL since I did not know there was a politics forum. So I will copy paste:

    Fellow US people. I am not a US citizen so I do not fully understand your strange system. 

    I look up at the results and I feel its granted that Biden will win Nevada, Wisconsin and Michingan. In that case he wins the elections. Can you help me understand how is it that the books are giving us 1.22 odds? I have already bet a shitload of money and want to bet more. But Im scared of a hidden risk that I may not be seeing. Is there any risk or is this free money? (The only risk I see is that my bet is paid in 2 months after appeals and all that bs. But I aint scared about that risk. 

    Thanks!

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Wrote this in NFL since I did not know there was a politics forum. So I will copy paste:

    Fellow US people. I am not a US citizen so I do not fully understand your strange system. 

    I look up at the results and I feel its granted that Biden will win Nevada, Wisconsin and Michingan. In that case he wins the elections. Can you help me understand how is it that the books are giving us 1.22 odds? I have already bet a shitload of money and want to bet more. But Im scared of a hidden risk that I may not be seeing. Is there any risk or is this free money? (The only risk I see is that my bet is paid in 2 months after appeals and all that bs. But I aint scared about that risk. 

    Thanks!

     
    VVreincarnated
    VVreincarnated
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    Posts: 146
    Posted: Nov. 4, 2020 - 2:18 PM ET #2

    The risk is that the race is as tight as a gnats azz and Nevada is only like 8000 votes apart with like 30 % of votes left to count so you can’t give Biden our state yet. I think Nevada will be the determining state as Pennsylvania I believe Trump will get . My gut says Biden wins now but so much to look at still 

    Reply

    The risk is that the race is as tight as a gnats azz and Nevada is only like 8000 votes apart with like 30 % of votes left to count so you can’t give Biden our state yet. I think Nevada will be the determining state as Pennsylvania I believe Trump will get . My gut says Biden wins now but so much to look at still 

     
    kings_duce
    kings_duce
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    Posts: 5699
    Posted: Nov. 4, 2020 - 2:19 PM ET #3

    Sleepy joe is on track to win, but friend the odd isn’t worth it 

    there are value elsewhere 

    Reply

    Sleepy joe is on track to win, but friend the odd isn’t worth it 

    there are value elsewhere 

     
    StumpTownStu
    StumpTownStu
    Hall of Fame
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    Posted: Nov. 4, 2020 - 2:20 PM ET #4

    All three of those states are still very much in question. To a much lesser extent, so is North Carolina and Georgia. And while you amy not know American politics, you know good and well how books work. They're just trying to stay ahead of it all. If they had their way, they probably wouldn't even offer odds on this madness.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
    Reply

    All three of those states are still very much in question. To a much lesser extent, so is North Carolina and Georgia. And while you amy not know American politics, you know good and well how books work. They're just trying to stay ahead of it all. If they had their way, they probably wouldn't even offer odds on this madness.

     
    HockeyNight11
    HockeyNight11
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    Posts: 3330
    Posted: Nov. 4, 2020 - 2:44 PM ET #5

    It’s not even worth the wager at this point as it probably won’t pay out for a month.  

    Trump team feels confident in PA, AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  

    There will be a recount in WI already

    MI might not be settled for weeks with what’s going on and the fraud accusations being tossed around here at TCF.  

    Then you have to consider the courts and how many judges trump has appointed, most importantly the Supreme Court.  This outcome seems like it’ll be decided by the courts and not necessarily the people.  I’d take that into consideration before loading up 

    Reply

    It’s not even worth the wager at this point as it probably won’t pay out for a month.  

    Trump team feels confident in PA, AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  

    There will be a recount in WI already

    MI might not be settled for weeks with what’s going on and the fraud accusations being tossed around here at TCF.  

    Then you have to consider the courts and how many judges trump has appointed, most importantly the Supreme Court.  This outcome seems like it’ll be decided by the courts and not necessarily the people.  I’d take that into consideration before loading up 

     
    Coolwars
    Coolwars
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    Posts: 6
    Posted: Nov. 4, 2020 - 4:24 PM ET #6

    Yeah it over in favor of Biden, BUT Trump won't concede like a normal reasonable human being. So this will drag on and on and on, even if it is just pointless. I mean if the mail-in quota (72%+) hold it's pace he will win Pennsylvania and Georgia too so yeah. But there won't we a payout for weeks, or even month's if Trump behaves like Trump always behaves.

    Reply

    Yeah it over in favor of Biden, BUT Trump won't concede like a normal reasonable human being. So this will drag on and on and on, even if it is just pointless. I mean if the mail-in quota (72%+) hold it's pace he will win Pennsylvania and Georgia too so yeah. But there won't we a payout for weeks, or even month's if Trump behaves like Trump always behaves.

     
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Joined: Nov, 2001
    Posts: 60107
    Posted: Nov. 4, 2020 - 4:35 PM ET #7

    The real answer?

    It is a combination of risk and hedging.

    5-1 on Biden is currently an artificially low price.  It should be like 30-1.  The reason is that you can hedge out now and avoid risk, and if you are on a betting exchange like Betfair you dont have to wait 2 months for all of the mess to clear.

    It is all risk.  Biden will be declared the winner by the weekend.  But there is a long road ahead in the next month or two.

     
    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
    Reply

    The real answer?

    It is a combination of risk and hedging.

    5-1 on Biden is currently an artificially low price.  It should be like 30-1.  The reason is that you can hedge out now and avoid risk, and if you are on a betting exchange like Betfair you dont have to wait 2 months for all of the mess to clear.

    It is all risk.  Biden will be declared the winner by the weekend.  But there is a long road ahead in the next month or two.

     
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