Posted:
#1
Hi All,
Turning attention to this now. Flaaarida at -175 for Dem Party
winning, (was -150 yesterday night). Any insight?
Florida.........
...
Views: 602
Posts: 15
Posted:
#2
Quote Originally Posted by DiverRon:
Hi All,
Turning attention to this now. Flaaarida at -175 for Dem Party
winning, (was -150 yesterday night). Any insight?
It's said that 28% of GOP is voting for Hillary in early Florida voting, plus Latinos voting for record numbers. She is likely to crab Florida.
Posted:
#3
In every cred. poll i have seen trump gets more dem crossovers than hillary gets rep. crossovers by 2-4 pts so early voting #s mean nothing here not to mention the latinos in the state of flo are very cozy with the rep. party trad. due to the high content of cuban voters, now this is not a trad. election but almost cert. flo will be the highest hisp/lat vote% trump will get in this election because of the cuban vote.
There is 0 rational to the line going up other than usual phony MSM poll followers that will be off 6-9 pts just like in the primaries that can not accept trump can win even though polling in this state is razor thin and nothing has changed in that regard in the last 24 hours since that line increased.
There is 0 rational to the line going up other than usual phony MSM poll followers that will be off 6-9 pts just like in the primaries that can not accept trump can win even though polling in this state is razor thin and nothing has changed in that regard in the last 24 hours since that line increased.
Posted:
#7
Yet in 12' Romney was down 161k Dems early voting deficit
This year 16' Trump only down 32k dems early voting
Don't do it unless you like losing $$$ and BELIEVE the lying Mainstream media
The higher the price..makes me believe it's a losing wager...NO chance of WINNING if Trump doesn't take Florida..just sayin..
Posted:
#9
Quote Originally Posted by searchwarrant:
How is it possible that Florida has so many electorates when it is no longer officially recognized as part of the United States?
I'm not positive, but I think they're grandfathered in until 2020. I believe they have 4 years to cut the number of nutjobs and hurricanes down by at least 50% or they're O-U-T OUT OUT OUT!
How is it possible that Florida has so many electorates when it is no longer officially recognized as part of the United States?
Posted:
#10
0 rational to why the odds went up in flo 0 other than money from MSM phony poll followers and even then its a dead heat in that biasness.
Early voting lead the dems always have in that state are there again but down substan. from 2012 and crossover votes favor trump by 2-4% over hillary getting rep. crossovers and the cubans counted as latinos are very fav. to trump so the early is not good for dems.
She has to run it up big---BIG in 1 spot of the state pop. and if not--this state will not be close no matter what these irrational odds say.
Early voting lead the dems always have in that state are there again but down substan. from 2012 and crossover votes favor trump by 2-4% over hillary getting rep. crossovers and the cubans counted as latinos are very fav. to trump so the early is not good for dems.
She has to run it up big---BIG in 1 spot of the state pop. and if not--this state will not be close no matter what these irrational odds say.
Posted:
#12
Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:
I don't think you have a fundamental understanding of how political odds are calculated 
How's this ...
Political odds are originally set based upon media/polls.
Political odds are then adjusted to reflect incoming bets.
Those incoming bets are based upon ones expected results, which is formed via the media/polls.
Thus, the media/polls dictate the odds.
If this is inaccurate, please explain
bigreds daddy
Posted:
#14
Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:
How's this ...
Political odds are originally set based upon media/polls.
Political odds are then adjusted to reflect incoming bets.
Those incoming bets are based upon ones expected results, which is formed via the media/polls.
Thus, the media/polls dictate the odds.
If this is inaccurate, please explain
Some of this is accurate, but not all of it.
The problem with laying the odds squarely at the media, and by proxy, the polls, is that one side in this matter believes the polls are inaccurately reflected by the media. Thus, since that side is getting significant plus money (remember, no spreads), it would lead to disproportionate betting.
As the good bettor that you are, you, of course, know that the books aren't saying that HRC is -700 over Trump (current odds), but rather that this is the number that will generate as much equalization on both sides as possible.
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