back to an endless Republicans war so 30 years in Iran over or under

Panama-flagged Peace Gulf, a medium-range tanker, is heading to Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates, LSEG data showed.

The vessel typically moves Iranian naphtha, a petrochemical feedstock, to other non-Iranian Middle Eastern ports for export to Asia, Kpler data showed.

Prior to this, two U.S.-sanctioned tankers passed through the narrow waterway.

Handy tanker Murlikishan is heading to Iraq to load fuel oil on April 16, Kpler data showed. The vessel, formerly known as MKA, has transported Russian and Iranian oi

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Eleanor Skelly

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Justin Goldman

Mirna Alsharif.

Mirna Alsharif

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Eleanor Skelly, 

Justin Goldman 

and Mirna Alsharif

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, said the U.S. will not allow Iran to hold the world economy hostage.

"Iran doesn’t get to choose the winners and losers on the global economy. The United States will do that until all ships are open," he said in an interview with Fox News this afternoon. "So, no ships come out, or all ships come out."

Waltz was referring to marine traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil flowed before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

Waltz added, "What President Trump has done has taken that leverage, taken Iran trying to hold the entire world’s economies hostage, has taken that off the table."

About negotiations with Iran, he emphasized that Iran's economy “is in free fall” and “time is not on their side.” 

“We’ll see if they come back for a reasonable deal,” Waltz said

You are not trying to do anything for the greater good here - you are trying to starve a nation of 90 million people because you want to earn a quick buck and because your egg and gas prices were too high —- it is “me, me and me - and fuck you over there, that has done nothing to me” mentality at its finest ! I can’t believe I will outlive the notion of you guys being the moral preachers of this world - I am fucking thrilled of that fact - because no civilisation on earth is filled with more phony, cringe inducing fuckheads - than you pieces of shit 

And you are not even winning the meme war - your sloppy AI junk is pathetic to be honest ! Irans LEGO videos and their posts are a lot funnier and they come up with those while being bombed daily - your entire cabinet have nothing better to do all day

@nature1970

Hopefully, for the good of everyone involved.

Since start of Iran war, cost to taxpayers has reached $51 billion so far.  However Harvard professor Bilmes estimates total cost is ultimately higher in the long term.  $1 trillion  added to US national debt in the future.  Huge waste of resources that could be better spend on infrastructure, technology, economic growth and well being of Americans.

In economics this is what is known as 'Public Finance'.  Her use of it is essentially a 'Full Cost Accounting' of the war.  This makes several assumptions that are simply not verified and cannot be fully extrapolated.

So, it is not completely 'real reporting'.

Even the starting assumption of $51B is not a confirmed number.

Then the $1T is including things like direct military spending and interest costs, and veteran's costs.  These assume that things have to be replaced.  For example, a new administration may not rebuild the lost/damaged military equipment as much as another administration might.  The veteran's costs are built around assumptions on injury rates, etc. in more normal wars.  So far this is not a normal injury-rate situation.  Interest costs are certainly not unique to wars.  So, if you assume the 'resources could be better spent elsewhere' you would still have that cost to a large degree already.

This is not based on hard spending but assumptions and modeling.

You can see this is where she was off on, say on the Afghanistan War in her assumptions compared to what should be expected in this situation with veteran's benefits and interest costs.

So, if you were to take other economists that use various other approaches then you see a different view of the total cost.

For example, Cochrane from Stanford will point out the interest should not be counted as a separate cost of the war itself.  He considers the longer term to be less of a consideration than what is known as 'direct fiscal outlays'.

Even someone like Barro would point out that the better way to look at the economic impact is to examine the GDP impact instead of lifetime budget totals.

Then another viewpoint that someone like Korb, who used to actually work for the Pentagon, would also argue that is being too 'assumption-heavy' and that near-term budget effects should be the better way to look at it.

So, a lot of economists will disagree over what should be considered 'costs'.

Those would be using more of a 'cash flow budgeting' consideration.

Time horizon, inflation, growth and replacement costs are all dynamic considerations.

So, to just choose an economist that uses 'narrow accounting' as opposed to a view such as Bilmes view which would be using 'full cost accounting' would not be correct either.

You have to see multiple views and not just choose one that supports a 'political view' that you like.

It will come down to how economists view 'future obligations' as being counted as 'war costs' or 'general government spending'.

For example, if you are already paying some of those things you cannot now count those costs and now include the increase of those amounts to say that is the total cost caused by the war for that item.  It is almost double counting based an over-exaggerated assumptions that may or may not be true.

Polls show most voters are not buying Trump claims of victory in Iran.  Instead they say war is not in US national interest  and many lack confidence in goals although his administration had weeks to make its case. Only Israel supports US for selfish reasons while NATO allies still don't to be dragged into an unpopular, illegal and unnecessary war.

Yes, it is always very valuable to get an opinion from one of the least informed country’s population about international issues.  
The average American has extremely low factual knowledge on their own domestic issues and far lower knowledge on foreign issues.

All the polling shows is how well the media made their case for or against whatever their narrative says to be for or against.  

USA today reports of low morale among thousands of US troops deployed in Middle east because of scarce food supply.  Some have to ration meals and endure prolonged hunger.  There are rumors about poor planning.  Perhaps, impatient Trump was expecting a short war?   Strategy of Iran seems to be to outlast enemies with superior military in costly war.

@Raiders22

 seems cuisine Donnie doesn't like his golf game date turned around so China wants a trade agreement and xi is ready to roll out the res carpet.

so how is this war going and how does Iran interrupt the event in being , things to ponder ole boy as you sit and contemplate risk m management today

@Raiders22

 With all due respect Raider that’s hog wash! Trump did Israel a solid favor and now the Americans and most of the occupied world is watching a bully lump up country at there expense! In this country where many are brainwashed and stubborn to the point they would cut off their nose to spite their faces before they would admit they made a mistake our smelling what the GOP preach is not what they practice! Every thing they ran of has turned out opposite or not at all and we’re in war, lost many allies and 4 plus trillion more in debt…Sir those are the facts!….And his hand picked cronies have broken many laws and campaign promises in covering up that horrible criminal mess ! Countless times Trump pounded his fist on this issue in hindsight knowing he more than anyone was shamefully involved! …….Hunter Biden can’t save him either come November!

@nature1970

 Yessir.  Those are two very key considerations that have to be watched carefully.  That is a very tricky dynamic with Iran, China and the USA.

@joe pockets

 With all due respect Raider that’s hog wash! 
What exactly are you saying is hogwash?  

bully lump up country at there expense!
That can be one way to look at it.  But would it be worse to have it at their expense now, or wait until they are further terrorized on their own soil by Iran and backed up by long range missles and nuclear weapons.  Those countries did not have the resolve or capability or grouping to do it themselves.  So, they should be appreciative — openly, or otherwise. So, this can be looked at with a far broader lens than what you stated.

before they would admit they made a mistake 

What mistake are you saying they made?

lost many allies and 4 plus trillion more in debt 

What allies have they lost?  They were in debt and still going to be in debt.  Neither party wants to get out of debt.  I think it is better to spend money on this that has been building a threat for decades instead of wasting it on bloated nonsense programs.

And his hand picked cronies have broken many laws and campaign promises in covering up that horrible criminal mess ! 
If they have broken laws they can be investigated and dealt with.  I am not sure what campaign promises you are saying they have broken.

Countless times Trump pounded his fist on this issue in hindsight knowing he more than anyone was shamefully involved! …….Hunter Biden can’t save him either come November! 
He pounded his fist on what issue exactly? Iran, debt, or broke campaign promises?  
I am not sure what Hunter has to do with it?  Are you saying Hunter got him elected in the first place or something?  The Hunter issue has always been more of an issue against Biden, not really Trump.  

Wall street journal reports that Trump advisors kept him from commanding military operation to rescue downed pilots because he was acting so crazy.  25th amendment should be used to remove mentally ill president from office.

Times of India reports Trump said he would consider easing the blockade after advice from Pakistan's military leadership.  This demonstrates that Trump is more flexible and responsive in diplomacy. 

@Raiders22

 “What mistake are you saying they made” ?….. You think tariffs or His handling of immigration were not mistakes? The voting public will speak to it come midterms! And the war will be a painful hemorrhoid for the Democrat that replaces him! Raider that return question answers its self bro! If Old Joe Biden did a Trump move to the max and fired his complete administration and secretary the country would still be better off! JMHO and a good part of 57% of the voting public……But definitely not Muggs!

“ I think it is better to spend money on this that has been building a threat for decades instead of wasting it on bloated”…..That’s funny because that how Trump feels >>>>37% approval rate at the moment!  This administrations tariffs have cost the average household $1,700 annually…..They are huge waste and painful weight on American families! To think he is going to bring back manufacturing is a pipe dream as it would cost may trillions in tax subsidies that this country doesn’t have to undo NAFTA, And don’t expect the companies to reinvest! They don’t want to pay the taxes they owe as it is….Good god llc’s were and are created to limit liability to everything! 

Would you consider the fact that Trump and his Administration has made tens of thousands of falsehoods and misleading statements a mistake or just stupidity ?These usually lead to his “ People are saying “ lead in to promoted conspiracy theories that have lacked any verifiable support!…To put it bluntly Trump is the king of Bullshit artists! 
 
“If they have broken laws they can be investigated and dealt with”….With pardons and the latitude the court has given him I doubt it!

I am not sure what campaign promises you are saying they have broken……The endless Wars, The national debt or the economy for starters…We are worse off ! But Radier you seem to see actions by the GOP though a different alternative type of lens….And that’s fine  

I gotta run ! As always  

@joe pockets

  “What mistake are you saying they made” ?….. You think tariffs or His handling of immigration were not mistakes?

No sir, I do not.  Overall, immigration has been okay.  The border has been effectively closed.  Deportations, and self-deportations are being done.  I wish he had done more and would make a more concerted effort to get rid of the illegals.  That is my biggest pet peeve and it is not really close.  I know the Democrats do not like that it is being done.  But overall I am okay with what he has done.  

On the tariffs, I think he has done a good job of using them as leverage and has achieved a lot of what he wanted to do with them.  I think folks realize it was not just talk but he at least will follow through with them as he sees fit to achieve a goal(s).  This is something that folks just do not like or understand -- or even attempt to understand.

The voting public will speak to it come midterms!

Absolutely.  But I think he knew full well that would happen.  It is always expected to happen in the midterms.  I think that was a large part of what made him do it when he did.  I think it is also why he fired some of the folks that will need Senate approval, etc.  I think he hopes things like the war will be over before then and maybe will not affect the midterms more than the normal midterm change.

And the war will be a painful hemorrhoid for the Democrat that replaces him!

I do not think so at all.  If it is a Democrat, they have shown by past behavior that they will its sort to appeasement.  So, it will not change anything they do if they get back in office.

If Old Joe Biden did a Trump move to the max and fired his complete administration and secretary the country would still be better off!

No sir.  I think this was proven already in the time Biden had the office.

@joe pockets

 and a good part of 57% of the voting public

The issue here is how uniformed the 'voting public' is.

Think about the average person you know and how they get their information.  It all comes from their friends (that are uniformed) or a biased media that pushes the socialist agenda.

“ I think it is better to spend money on this that has been building a threat for decades instead of wasting it on bloated”…..That’s funny because that how Trump feels >>>>37% approval rate at the moment!  

I do not see it as funny at all.  It has been needed to be done for decades now.  Even more needs to be done.

This administrations tariffs have cost the average household $1,700 annually…..They are huge waste and painful weight on American families!

This is playing with numbers at this point.  Time will tell.

To think he is going to bring back manufacturing is a pipe dream as it would cost may trillions in tax subsidies that this country doesn’t have to undo NAFTA, And don’t expect the companies to reinvest!

This is already being seen and the numbers are showing this already.  This is juts more and better of what he did in his first term.  This is more of the leverage from the tariffs showing up in manufacturing potential.

They don’t want to pay the taxes they owe as it is

Who? 

Would you consider the fact that Trump and his Administration has made tens of thousands of falsehoods and misleading statements a mistake or just stupidity ?

Both.  But all administrations do this -- intentionally or not.

These usually lead to his “ People are saying “ lead in to promoted conspiracy theories that have lacked any verifiable support!

Yes, but think of who the 'people' are and why they say what they say.

“If they have broken laws they can be investigated and dealt with”….With pardons and the latitude the court has given him I doubt it!

I would not be that pessimistic.  Some are being done now.  Some are just now being deon from Biden's administration.  Things do not happen overnight.

What did the guy say: “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.”  

It may not seem like it -- but the overwhelming majority of it does get done.  Some may not and certainly get the bigger headlines.

I am not sure what campaign promises you are saying they have broken……The endless Wars, The national debt or the economy for starters…We are worse off

What endless wars?  There are none.  You cannot even classify the Iran thing as a war.  There is for sure a deadline in place.  Trump understands this and has stated this.  So, it is not a war and not endless.  Congress will never approve this and Trump knows this.

Who is worse off?  The majority of folks are far better off.  Taxes are down, income is up, illegals are being taken off of the system and deported, gas prices and been down until the Iran situation and will be coming down after the summer travel season.  Sol, I do not agree that folks are worse off.  That is anti-Trump propaganda.

The debt is a huge problem.  But how much of that is Trump able to control.  Congress needs two work together to cut spending and Trump will sign it.

But Radier you seem to see actions by the GOP though a different alternative type of lens….And that’s fine 

Yessir.  I feel this is the ideal way to view things as a whole.  I think more people should view things this way.  The issue is that when a person looks at online or two things from a socialist viewpoint they tend to try to make all things fit in that viewpoint.  This does not work for a society as a whole but from a more conservative view it does because it concentrates on the individual instead of the group to make a better society.

I gotta run ! As always 

Yeesir.  Even though we do not agree on the way to do it I think we both want the best for folks and the country.

Take care. 

Political scientist Elizabeth Saunders says Trump actions in Iran are either humiliation or escalation.  Declare premature victory and leave or stay to fight.  Polls show most Americans favor no further military action.  Any deal now is likely to fall short of initial goals for war.  Iran is in a strong negotiating position because of its control of strait to cause surge in oil prices.

John Mearsheimer — a well-known realist political scientist.

In recent commentary on the Iran conflict, he’s been cited arguing that U.S. policy toward Iran is not confused or trapped, but reflects a form of coercive clarity—using force or the threat of force to compel outcomes rather than signaling weakness. 

That’s basically the opposite lens from Saunders: instead of “any path is bad,” it suggests escalation can be a rational, even necessary tool in international politics.

@Raiders22

 Who? 
We have been down this road before I believe the wealthiest Americans often pay a lower effective tax rate than average taxpayers when unrealized capital gains (the increased value of assets like stocks) are considered as income. While the top marginal income tax rate is 37%, many ultra-wealthy individuals pay a "true" tax rate of less than 4% on their growing fortunes. Argue all you want but total effective tax rates for the 500 to 1000 wealthiest Americans have declined sharply in recent years, and they now pay a smaller percentage of their true income in taxes than the average American, And Trumps tax cuts did nothing but put the country more in debt!…Again we have discussed this before and even though we disagree I believe reality glaringly supports my side of the discussion!  …The day may come in this country where that may not be the case !

So this leaves us to today with the country’s income disparity has become more unbalanced that creates the presence of high income for mostly the same few and is at the expense of the vast majority with lower income like never before! Worse yet it now like never before translates into politics to the point of wealth individuals can openly donate hundreds of millions to put there thumb on the scale to get the government that will help them to protect this imbalance! 

Both.  But all administrations do this -- intentionally or not.…..Agreed both parties tell falsehoods BUT Republican lies are more patiently false and have become a daily epidemic in all facets of cause and effect,sometimes involving a extreme denial of objective truth, particularly in the Trump years! ….Raider you appear to be a very intelligent individual you should know this is the case…But I guess if one thinks bald face lying by someone else furthers there profession or personal feelings “ let the chip fall where they lay”. 

Who is worse off?  The majority of folks are far better off!…….To this I will only say years ago there was a hit song by “ The Happenings “ called, See you in September we’ll let’s try “See me in November” in regards to happy Americans because all indications point towards a real mandate in change in the error that is playing out today! …In 5 months this can sink deeper as head start to fly the cabinet, And Israel get more inpatient in time frame of this nations coming midterm! ….Business calls  

@joe pockets

 We have been down this road before I believe the wealthiest Americans often pay a lower effective tax rate than average taxpayers when unrealized capital gains (the increased value of assets like stocks) are considered as income. 

Why would you consider 'unrealized capital gains' as income?

Imagine if they did that with your paid for houses that you have not sold and do not intend to sell because you just want to live in them.  Or if they did that with your retirement account that you do not plan to sell but keep and sell portions from time to time as needed to live on.

Just because the majority of citizens do not have a paid for house and retirement investments, why should they tax you on your 'unrealized capital gains'?

I am not sure this is the correct road to go down.